THE CONTEXT: With 8,006 civilians killed and around 13 287 injured according to UN Human Rights data, the Ukraine war has continued for more than a year.
CAUSE OF CONFLICT
BALANCE OF POWER
- Ever since Ukraine split from the Soviet Union, both Russia and the West have vied for greater influence in the country to keep the balance of power in the region in their favour.
- Buffer Zone for Western Countries: For the US and the European Union, Ukraine is a crucial buffer between Russia and the West. As Ukraine is located between Western Europe and Russia and is not part of NATO, it works as a buffer zone.
- As tensions with Russia rise, the US and the EU are increasingly determined to keep Ukraine away from Russian control.
RUSSIAN INTEREST IN THE BLACK SEA
- The unique geography of the Black Sea region confers several geopolitical advantages to Russia.
- Access to the Black Sea is vital for all littoral and neighbouring states and greatly enhances the projection of power into several adjacent regions.
- The region is an important transit corridor for goods and energy.
PROTESTS IN UKRAINE
- Euromaidan Movement: European Square was a wave of demonstrations and civil unrest in Ukraine, which began in November 2013 with public protests in Maidan Independence Square in Kyiv, Ukraine.
- The protests were sparked by the Ukrainian government’s decision to suspend the signing of an association agreement with the European Union, instead choosing closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union
SEPARATIST MOVEMENT
- The Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine have faced a pro-Russian separatist movement since 2014.
- According to various sources, the Russian government actively supports the movement, and Russian paramilitaries make up between 15% to 80% of the separatists fighting against the Ukrainian government.
INVASION OF CRIMEA
- Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine in what was the first time a European country annexed territory from another country since WW-II.
- The annexation of Crimea from Ukraine followed a Russian military intervention in Crimea that took place in the aftermath of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution and was part of wider unrest across southern and eastern Ukraine.
- The invasion and subsequent annexation of Crimea have given Russia a maritime upper hand in the region.
UKRAINE’S NATO MEMBERSHIP
- Ukraine has urged NATO to speed up its country’s membership in the alliance.
- Russia has declared such a move a “red line”, and is worried about the consequences of the US-led military alliances expanding right up to its doorstep.
- The Black Sea is bordered by Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine. Romania, Turkey and Bulgaria are NATO members.
- Due to this face off between NATO countries and Russia, the Black sea is a region of strategic importance & a potential maritime flash point.
AREA CONTROLLED BY RUSSIA IN UKRAINE
WHY IS THERE A DELAY IN THE WAR?
- Despite a series of Sanction on Russia(10 sanctions was imposed By the EU alone), there is only about 2% contraction on the Russian economy. This shows there is the failure of the sanctions regime.
- Failure of the UN: The trajectory of the UNSC’s dysfunctionality and systemic failure created the conditions that rendered it ineffective in the face of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis. Therefore, this crisis strengthens the case for the dismantling and radical overhaul of the UN Security Council as an institutional framework.
- Lack of consensus in the countries: Every country sees it on the basis of self-interest. There is a lack of consensus in developing countries and the Global South.
- Proxy war: The war has been prolonged by self-interest and a lack of incentive to stop the war. For example. China rejected calling Russia’s moves on Ukraine an “invasion” and urged all sides to exercise restraint. The USA is also getting benefitted from prolonging the war as it is weakening Russia indirectly and Europe is getting in its sphere of influence and away from Russia.
- Russia holds ⅕ territory of Ukraine- thus no incentive for Ukraine to go to talk until it gain military advantage.
INDIA’S STAND ON THE WAR
- On February 23, 2023, on the eve of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) adopted a resolution, calling for an end to the war. The resolution was favoured by 141 members and opposed by seven, while 32 states abstained. Unsurprisingly, India was one among the 32. This is in line with the position India has been taking on the Ukraine crisis from the beginning. India’s stand is based on maintaining its strategic autonomy in foreign policy.
- However, there is moral question is being raised on India’s stand. Russia is infringing on the territorial integrity of Ukraine which India is protecting on the basis of principal ground.
- Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories is a clear violation of international laws. So, how can countries such as India ignore this fact and move on? India has repeatedly stated in the UN that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected.
IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON INDIA:
- India’s ties with Russia:
- Ties with Russia, a historical partner, are important for India in many ways. One is energy — discounted fuel coming in from Russia is a relief for India, the world’s fifth-largest economy, which meets over 80% of its fuel needs through imports.
- Bilateral ties with Russia have improved. There is a 400% jump in the economic ties with Russia that is dominated by a jump in the oil trade. Russia is now exporting 28% of its import basket of oil of
- India has to work with powers in the Eurasian landmass where the U.S. is practically absent, especially after its disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. Russia plays a key role in India’s continental foreign policy.
- India and Russia is establishing a payment system independent of the Dollar, that is a special vostro account so that trade be more resilient in the coflict situations.
- However, there is an issue in the defence cooperation of India and Russia as Russia is not able to timely deliver its defence equipment obligation e.g. timely delivery S-400 defence system.
- There is an increase in the axis of Russia-China-Pakistan; thus it may impact the long-term relationship between India and Russia.
- Putin announced that Moscow was unilaterally suspending the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty with the U.S. Thus, further escalation of the war can trigger a nuclear war that can destabilise the peace and scenario in the world. It will impact the trade and economic relations between different countries. Thus, the long term Developmental objective of the India will suffer adversely.
- if the war prolongs, the risks of a Russia-NATO direct conflict would be higher. The rapid destruction of security in Europe and the deepening mistrust between major powers is comparable with the pre-First World War situation in the continent.An open confrontation between the great powers today would be cataclysmic because of the threat of nuclear weapons.The possibility of such a conflict would mean that the war is not just a European problem.
WHAT COULD INDIA DO?
- G20 presence- India can play a leadership role in the Ukrainian crisis. As india is projecting itself as a global leader, in a crisis situation India can take a leadership position to stop the war. India has a “long, complex” relationship with Russia and can use this influence to support an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- However there has been a lack of consensus on it as G20 Finance Ministers failed to agree a joint statement on the global economy at talks in India after China sought to water down references to the Ukraine conflict.
- India called for reform in a multilateral institution like UN: Indian Prime minister urged reform in multilateral platforms, saying that such moves were necessary to make multilateral forums reflect “global realities”. “This is evident in the joint initiative by India and Germany under the G-4 to bring reform in the UN Security Council,”
THE WAY FORWARD:
- Strengthen the UN multilateral system: UN multilateral system Ned to be reformed. The rules-based international order has to be established by increasing the legitimacy of the UN System.
- Strengthen the Economic sanction: Stronger sanctions are essential as, at least for now, there are no prospects of the West putting boots on the ground to counterbalance Russia. These should include Russia’s expulsion from the SWIFT system. The focus should be on targeting its essential industries, such as the energy sector, since energy revenues from Europe amount to more than one-third of Russia’s income.
- India and South Africa, large democracies from Asia and Africa, have consistently abstained from votes at the UN and refused to join the sanctions — because the sanctions were unilateral, imposed by specific countries or blocs, without UN approval. Brazil, the largest democracy in South America, has not joined the sanctions—as they claim it as less about global democracy than the post-Cold War security architecture in Europe.
- Creating deterrence: If the West wants to hit Russia where it hurts, it must stop buying Russian gas and oil. While the Ukraine war has prompted policymakers in Brussels to expedite efforts to end the bloc’s dependence on Russia’s natural gas (currently targeting a deadline of 2027), a concrete strategy for achieving this has yet to be determined.
- Work for disarmament and arms control treaty: This will go a long way towards ending the war.
- Strengthen the multipolar world order: A multipolar world will decrease the possibility of unilateral action. As power is not concentrated in any single state and is distributed at the global level, a ‘multipolar world’ opens up foreign policy and security choices for all countries. In this system, the stake of emerging power like India, and Brazil will increase and they will be able to play more effective roles at the world stage. Further, the Cold War mentality will end with the multipolar world order.
- There is a need to take the security concern of Russia, and instead of NATO-based security architecture, the multilateral and universal security architecture should be promoted e.g UN peacekeeping and peacebuilding.
THE CONCLUSION: The centrality of human rights in global politics should be maintained. There has been no war without blood, so war has to be demonised, and that can only be done by building global consensus. UN can play a major role in building peace and security. Thus there is need to reform in UN system, particularly UNSC.
Mains question
- As the Ukraine-Russia conf has entered into the second year, analyse its reasons and suggest measures to end the war.
- Ukraine -Russia war will have wide-ranging implications at the global level. Analyse the impact with respect to India.
