THE CONTEXT: The Nepal Prime Minister visited India in the first week of April 2022. After taking charge as a Prime Minister, this was the first bilateral abroad visit by the Prime Minister of Nepal. The outcome of the visit might appear modest but what is significant is that India and Nepal effectively managed to steer clear of divisive issues. This article analyses the recent developments in India- Nepal relations.
THE VISIT
PROJECTS LAUNCHED:
- Launch and operationalization of 35 km long cross border rail link from Jaynagar in Bihar to Kurtha in Nepal.
- Inauguration of the 90 km long 132 KV Solu Corridor transmission line built with Indian Line of Credit for INR 200 crore.
- Launch of RuPay Card in Nepal.
- Witnessing a video clip on the progress in the construction of the 132 Health facilities in Nepal, undertaken with US$ 50 million in post-earthquake reconstruction grant.
DOCUMENTS EXCHANGED:
- International Solar Alliance Framework Agreement handover by Nepal.
- Exchange of MoU on enhancing Technical Cooperation in the Railway Sector.
- Exchange of Agreement on Supply of Petroleum Products between IOC (India Oil Corporation) and NOC (Nepal Oil Corporation).
- Exchange of Agreement for sharing of Technical Expertise between IOC and NOC.
INDIA-NEPAL JOINT VISION STATEMENT ON POWER SECTOR COOPERATION:
- Apart from these, India and Nepal issued a joint vision statement on power sector cooperation. According to the statement:
- Joint development of power generation projects in Nepal.
- Development of cross-border transmission infrastructure.
- Bi-directional power trade with appropriate access to electricity markets in both countries based on mutual benefits, market demand and applicable domestic regulations of each country.
- Coordinated operation of the national grids.
- Institutional cooperation in sharing the latest operational information, technology, and know-how.
IMPORTANCE OF THE VISIT:
- At a time when the Russia-Ukraine war is going on, India is facing west criticism for not condemning Russia. This time India needs to improve its relations with neighbouring countries.
- The relations between India-Nepal are as healthy as expected, so the visit shows hope for enhancing the relations.
- It was his first foreign visit as Prime Minister that abiding interest in strengthening ties with India.
- In the recent past, after strong Indian opposition to the Constitution, many Nepali held India responsible for the three-month-long “great blockade” and Madhesi groups’ protest; the visit was the opportunity to repair the India-Nepal relationship.
- The BIMSTEC summit recently concluded that if India wants to minimize the ongoing war impacts, it should have good ties with neighbouring countries.
SUCCESS OF THE VISIT:
- The visit shows many successes in the different sectors. Moreover, it raised confidence in the relations of both countries.
- Cross border projects like technical cooperation in the railway sector, Nepal’s induction into the International Solar Alliance, and between Indian Oil Corporation, Nepal Oil Corporation on ensuring regular supplies of petroleum products were also signed, and a joint vision statement on power sector cooperation provide opportunities for joint development and cooperation.
THE CHALLENGES FACING INDIA-NEPAL TIES
THE OPEN: An important issue is an open border between two countries.
BORDER ISSUE: The open is used for illegal trafficking to India.
FLOOD DUE TO PLAIN: The Nepal plains suffer from massive floods that have also affected downstream areas across the border.
KOSI BARRAGE: The Kosi Barrage and attendant embankments have the possibility of wreaking havoc because the siltation of six decades has raised the riverbed within the levees far above the outlying tracts. The Indian politician is to demand a high dam in the hills of Nepal even as alternatives are not studied, which effected the waters of the Kosi in Bihar.
IMPORT OF ELECTRICITY FROM NEPAL: Nepal has long planned to sell electricity to India, but the completion of the Dhalkebar-Muzaffarpur transmission line was supposed to facilitate that. Indian government directive that it will not allow the import of electricity other than from power companies with more than 51% Indian equity.
ARBITRARY BLOCKAGES AT BORDER POINTS: The arbitrary blockages and go-slow at Indian Customs at border points, the selective use of quarantine for the export of Nepali agricultural produce, the increasing high-handedness of the Sashastra Seema Bal (India’s frontier force in this sector) in dealing with Nepalis crossing over are some of the challenges on the bilateral plane.
2020 BORDER DISPUTE: The Nepalese government issued a new political map placing the disputed territory of Kalapani within its borders. This came as a response to the inauguration of a Jeep track through Lipu Lek by the Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh.
COVID-19: Because of the lock-down in India due to the COVID-19 pandemic, thousands of poor Nepalese migrant labour working in Indian cities returned home in 2020. This caused a massive spread of the pandemic inside Nepal. This created a negative image of India.
MAOIST: India played a valued role in ending the Maoist insurgency in 2006, but the period after that was marked by escalating micro-meddling in Nepal’s internal affairs.
NEW CONSTITUTION: There were attempts to define the new provincial boundaries according to Indian dictates in Constitution-writing. India criticized it for not addressing the concerns of Madheshis and other marginalized sections.
HUMAN RIGHT ISSUE: India criticized Nepal’s human rights record at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, especially in dealing with the Madhesi agitation.
BLOCKADE BY MADHESI: It has halted oil and other essential supplies, which created a humanitarian crisis in Nepal. The Nepal government blames India for this blockade.
RESULT OF THESE ISSUES: CHINESE PRESENCE IN NEPAL
The Great Blockade forced the Kathmandu political leadership to reach out to Beijing, and the result was:
- India’s relations with Nepal have had both ‘highs’ and ‘lows’ in recent years. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has often spoken of the “neighbourhood first” policy. After that, both countries’ relations took a nosedive, and China made a strong presence in Nepal.
- Nepal is today connected by air to Chinese cities than to India.
- Nepal is also part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
- In 2016, Mr Oli visited Beijing to negotiate an Agreement on Transit Transportation.
- The first-ever visit of the Chinese Defence Minister took place in March 2017, followed by joint military exercises a month later. Three years later, a Protocol was concluded with China providing access to four seaports and three land ports. A military grant of $32 million was also announced.
- Rather than compete with China, India needs to up its own game. China has overtaken India as the largest source of foreign direct investment. In 2019, China’s President Xi Jinping visited Kathmandu. Annual development assistance has been hiked to $120 million. China is also engaged with airport expansion projects at Pokhara and Lumbini.
- The growing Chinese presence means that India cannot afford to let issues linger but reach out actively to find a resolution.
WHAT CAN BE THE IMPACT OF A VISIT?
WHAT SHOULD BE THE WAY FORWARD?
IMPROVE BILATERAL TRADE WITH NEIGHBOURS:
- India will have to focus on connectivity as leverage to increase its strategic influence in the neighbourhood.
- The trilateral India-Nepal-China corridor offers an interesting opportunity for collaboration to test Beijing’s flexibility and, at the same time, get Kathmandu on board.
BALANCE DEALING WITH SMALL NEIGHBOURS:
- India will have to abandon the archaic principle of the right of first refusal and invest in expanding its capacity of first delivery.
- Delhi will have to get used to Kathmandu’s new “first-come, first-served” principle. Indian delays and low-quality resources will no longer be tolerated.
- By reviving the Gujral doctrine and India’s willingness to provide non-reciprocal, unilateral, and preferential benefits to its smaller neighbours.
TO CURB CHINA IMPACT:
- Beijing’s current promises of support for Nepal will thus also come with a price.
- New Delhi will have to communicate such expectations more clearly.
- History shows that India will often assume that the Nepalese government is deliberately acting against its advice when, in fact, New Delhi never communicated such concerns in the first place or did not articulate them forcefully enough.
CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUE:
- In 2015, New Delhi may as well have failed on clear communication and used inadequate forms of pressure that were resented in Nepal.
- A permanent bilateral mechanism is required to save the plains population of Nepal from suffering, which can be possible at the present.
- It has always been our wish to seek peace and prosperity in Nepal because stability in Nepal is in the best interests of India [and] democracy in Nepal is the best guarantee of such stability.
OTHERS:
- More than defining what Nepal should not do, India will have to grow a thicker skin against Nepalese nationalist rallying cries against India.
- To most Nepalese, the Chinese grass across the Himalayas will naturally look greener than that on India’s Gangetic plains.
- Especially while in opposition, political leaders in Kathmandu will keep tapping into anti-India feelings to mobilize electoral support, a behaviour that India must understand and endure.
CONCLUSION: PM Deuba’s visit has infused new trust and confidence in the relationship and it should be hoped that shared historical, cultural, economic security and other linkages will help the two countries further boost their bilateral ties.
QUESTIONS
- ‘The Nepal Prime Minister’s visit sparks hope that bilateral ties will find a new equilibrium. Critically discuss.
- ‘China will emerge as an occasional irritant in Indo-Nepalese relations, tempting Nepal to play the ‘Beijing card’ against India”. In the light of the statement, discuss how India can prevent it?
