GLOBAL ORDER AND THE PALE SHADOW OF MULTILATERALISM
THE CONTEXT: The latest Munich Security Conference was held from February 16th to 18th, 2024 at the 19th-century Bayerischer Hof. It was evident that India’s foreign policy is starting to deliver at the world stage. The elite geopolitical conference celebrated its 60th anniversary but there is a sense that the world order has turned upside down by a variety of events.
SHIFT IN WORLD ORDER:
- Affect future prosperity of the world: The impacts of the ongoing global trajectory if not corrected, are likely to imperil the future and shared prosperity of the world. There is rising geopolitical tensions and rising economic uncertainty forcing governments to abandon the benefits of multilateral global co-operation.
- Major shift from cold war era: The period following the Cold War was largely peaceful as great power wars seemed remote, multilateralism flourished, globalisation was on the up, democracy flourished, human rights spread, and poverty declined. Today, almost all countries seem dissatisfied with the state of the global order.
- Rise of global south: The Global South is more assertive in today’s world and hit on the unequal nature of the international global order and seeks a realignment. The developed world worries about its reduced influence in the face of emerging powers from the Global South. On one hand, Countries like India will stake their rightful claim on the world stage and will be playing an increasingly important role in world affairs. On the other hand, traditional custodians of the global order are no longer satisfied with the state of affairs as they see their fortunes shrinking.
- Lose-lose dynamics: The resulting ‘lose-lose’ dynamics are already unfolding in many policy areas and engulfing various regions. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has undermined pathways to a co-operative security order for the foreseeable future. Europe finds itself in a position of neither being able to reap a peace dividend nor avoid the huge capital outlay needed for its defence.
- China’s growing influence: China’s growing militarisation of its land and maritime borders is raising fears about Beijing’s intentions. As a result, many countries in the region are seeking closer security ties with the United States and the West is also trying to reduce its economic dependency on China.
- Issue of wars and stability: The war in Gaza has set back the regional rapprochement that had gathered momentum and began shifting zero-sum mindsets among regional powers. Similarly, in Africa, a series of coups in the Sahel has lost the Europeans and the US important partners in promoting development and democracy, and the risk of continued infighting means these populations will likely not see lasting peace in the near to mid-term. That’s a massive geography in disarray.
- Deglobalisation: Geopolitical tensions are forcing states to pursue economic security rather than maximising mutual gains. As a result, capital and trade flows are beginning to fragment along geopolitical lines.
- Important arenas are left unaddressed: Climate talks, the one area where global co-operation is a must, is now trapped in the ongoing geopolitical tensions between low- and high-income countries, the Global South vs the Global North. Technology, another area where its benefits could be used to benefit the world, is now a bitter battle for supremacy.
THE WAY FORWARD:
- Rules based international order: There is a need for reform in the multilateral institutions and brings out rules based international order so that it better delivers on its promised mutual benefits.
- India can take a lead: A world caught in the middle of such risks seriously imperils global security and a prosperous future. In such situation, India stands out as a beacon of hope in these troubled times given the impact Indian foreign policy is having on the world stage.
- Inclusive policies: Governments needs to pursue more inclusive economic, social, and environmental agendas, they provide a further benefit to the world economy. Well-governed economies where prosperity is widely shared are more likely to welcome expanded international trade, investment and immigration.
- Stability and prosperity: In order to stifle nationalist and protectionist feelings, there is a need to produce stability and security. There is a need to bring emerging countries into closer association with world governance, implying that, in return, they share the responsibility and the costs of underpinning capitalism and an open society.
- Integration and cooperation: Promotion of new forms of international and regional integration that preserve and allow the multiple dimensions of life to flourish. Cooperation is vital to make the world economy more predictable, to mitigate vulnerabilities and to strengthen the free trade system. The culture of tolerance and understanding must be promoted which provides space for positive dialogue.
THE CONCLUSION:
In recent years, the debate over deglobalization and shift in world order has increased in volume due to political, social and economic developments. To ensure the long-term functioning of the multilateral system and better achievement of its goals, it is essential to strengthen accountability, transparency, inclusivity and democratic partnerships.
UPSC PREVIOUS YEAR QUESTIONS
Q.1 “The long sustained image of India as a leader of the oppressed and marginalised nations has disappeared on account of its newfound role in the emerging global order.’ Elaborate. (2019)
Q.2 Evaluate the economic and strategic dimensions of India’s Look East Policy in the context of the post-Cold War international scenario. (2016)
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION
Q.1 Globalisation is facing a crisis as there is a waning of concerted support, and growing protectionism, which are challenging the virtue of international cooperation. Discuss its implications and a suitable way forward.
