THE CONTEXT: Relations between India and Russia are a strategic partnership that has withstood the test of time, and which enjoys the support of the people of both countries. While their bilateral relationship is free of active conflict, the repercussions of external factors can no longer be ignored or underestimated. On the recent visit of the Russian Foreign Minister to Delhi the areas of divergence over their worldview seemed to emerge with reference to the changing geopolitical scenarios.
These trends combined with bilateral economic ties well below their potential would suggest that India-Russia relations are likely to face some turbulence ahead.
CHANGING GEOPOLITICS
Asia Rising: The world has changed drastically in the last three decades. The Soviet Union collapsed, leaving Russia geopolitically weakened. China has risen dramatically as the effective number two global power and the US power has relatively declined, but it still retains its pre-eminence. The global political and economic center of gravity is shifting from the West to the Asian region.
Geopolitical realignments: Russia-US ties and US-China ties have deteriorated very sharply in recent times as the US sees both these powers as adversaries. Russia and China have forged an increasingly stronger strategic partnership (Russia’s “Pivot to the East”), especially after US sanctions on Russia in 2014 (Crimea Crisis). Russia’s relationship with Pakistan has also seen considerable change in the last five years. At the same time, India-US ties have been transformed, with the US becoming India’s leading partner in many ways including a remarkable growth in defence ties.
Border tensions: No issue affected the Indo-Russian relationship as much as the border tensions between India and China. The Chinese aggression, in eastern Ladakh, brought India-China relations to an inflection point. It has driven New Delhi to shed past hesitations and actively pursue more hard-nosed policies to protect its national interests.
Covid-19 Pandemic: Changing geopolitical equations are greatly accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic. The US-China rivalry’s acceleration due to the pandemic has made the bipolar dynamic the pivot around which the new world order is likely to revolve. India and Russia are both important players in their own right but neither of them will occupy the top two positions in the world order. India and Russia remain supporters of the multipolar world order. However, their foreign policy choices will inevitably be affected by the way their respective relations with the US and China have evolved.
CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGES
The Quad and the Indo-Pacific
Russia has been critical of the Quad grouping that has been aimed at ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific against the backdrop of China’s growing assertiveness in the region. Russia has taken a harsh posture towards the Indo-Pacific, with the Russian Foreign Minister characterising the Quad as Asian NATO. Russia asserts that the US-led West is pushing India to join the anti-China camp and also undermine New Delhi’s relations with Moscow.
Despite Moscow’s opposition, India clearly sees the grouping as a necessary response to China. India has firmly stated that contemporary challenges require countries to work together in new and different ways and that such cooperation also reflects the rebalanced character of global politics. India has assured Russia that its own vision for the region remained inclusive in nature, not targeted at any country, but supportive of freedom of navigation and overflight and peaceful settlement of territorial disputes.
Afghanistan
During the 1990s and 2000s, Moscow and New Delhi regarded the Taliban as a threat to their domestic security. However, since 2013, Russia’s stance on the situation in Afghanistan began to change. Moscow reached out to Pakistan and later established “limited” contacts with the Taliban. The Russian approach identifies ISIS, not the Taliban, as the most immediate threat and considers Pakistan a partner for security in the region, along with coordinating its actions in the region with Pakistan and China.
This worries India, which maintains that there can be no choice between the ISKP and Taliban, and views Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism. New Delhi has been a consistent proponent of “zero tolerance” toward terrorist groups. Another important challenge for New Delhi is preventing Islamabad from playing a greater role in Kabul’s domestic affairs. Given these concerns, Russia’s outreach to Islamabad and the Taliban was unfavorable for India’s interests.
THE FUTURE OF TIES
Both India and Russia are calibrating their foreign policies to adapt to the challenges created by the changes in global politics and economics. Given the disparate challenges faced by India and Russia, it is not surprising that differences have emerged between them. Incidentally, such divergences exist in India’s relations with all great powers and are probably wider in its ties with the United States rather than Russia. The Indo-Pacific and Quad, developments in Afghanistan, Russian arms supplies to Pakistan, Russia’s growing closeness to China, and India gravitating towards the US are the areas of concern in ties between New Delhi and Moscow.
In Afghanistan, the differences are mainly tactical differences and some of these may have been addressed by Lavrov. The broader strategic picture, however, indicates the virtual inevitability of India, Russia, and possibly Iran collaborating closely. The prospect of the reemergence of an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan will compel India and Russia to align their views and actions.
In Pakistan, it is believed that India’s concerns about Russia’sgrowing ties with Pakistan were adequately addressed by Lavrov. Russia has reiterated its support for India in Kashmir. On arms sales to Pakistan, Russia reiterated assurances given earlier.
On China-Russia ties, there is enough divergence between Moscow and Beijing to believe that Russia is unlikely to seal an alliance any time soon or take hostile positions vis-à-vis India. Russian actions in 2020 should have been adequate to allay any fears of a China-Russia alliance. Russia expeditiously addressed India’s defence requirements at the height of the stand-off with China. Additionally, Russia played a discreet but important role in getting India and China to talk both in 2017 and 2020 when the two were locked in tense standoffs.
On the Indo-Pacific and Quad, Russia fears that containment of China through the concept of Indo-Pacific and the Quad may extend to the containment of Russia. India is attempting to allay these fears by pushing for greater Russian involvement in the Indo-Pacific. It is enhancing ties with the Russian Far East, promoting the Chennai-Vladivostok corridor, seeking to establish India-Japan-Russia trilateral collaboration in the Far East, and energise India-ASEAN-Russia cooperation. On the Quad, Russia seems satisfied with India’s assertions that New Delhi is not seeking to convert it into a security alliance.
Although there appears to be a satisfactory diversification of economic ties, volumes of trade are still below potential. Both countries are hoping that cooperation in the Far East will provide the necessary fillip to economic ties. Russia is also hoping for greater Indian involvement in the Far East and the Arctic to reduce its dependence on China in developing the region.
Looking at the broader context of Russian foreign policy and pragmatically assessing the bilateral ties offers India a chance to focus on promoting mutual interests. While there is no denying the divergences in the relationship, both sides still have significant areas of cooperation — in the bilateral, regional and global arenas — which must be harnessed. There are too many imponderables at this stage to predict with certainty how Indo-Russian relations will evolve. It most certainly needs careful nurturing.
WAY FORWARD
- As India develops ties with other like-minded powers to deal with the rise of China, it must also strengthen its special, privileged strategic partnership with Russia. The former superpower is an important partner in its Act East policy and a more balanced Russia-China relationship is in its interests.
- The high-level engagement is particularly important in the India-Russia relationship as it remains driven by top-level interaction. Efforts should be to intensify contacts and diversify areas of cooperation with Russia.
- Apart from traditional areas of cooperation, new sectors of economic engagement are likely to emerge — mining, agro-industrial, and high technology, including robotics, nanotech, and biotech. India’s footprint in the Russian Far East and in the Arctic is set to expand. Connectivity projects may get a boost too.
- India should pursue and facilitate Russia’s engagement in the Indo-Pacific. Russia may not use the term Indo-Pacific for some more time, but its active engagement, irrespective of motive, in the region would be beneficial to India and contribute to making the Indo-Pacific “free and inclusive”.
- New Delhi has been consistent in its efforts to promote links between the Indo-Pacific and the Russian Far East. The willingness of India and Russia to promote regional cooperation is also visible in proposals for joint economic projects in the Far East and the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime trade route.
- Russia should play a major role in India’s Atmanirbhar Bharat economic vision that can provide new openings for a more contemporary dynamic economic relationship between the two sides.
CONCLUSION: While India and Russia have successfully addressed divergences between them, even deep, traditional, and “time-tested relations” of the kind they have shared for decades cannot be taken for granted. Both Russia and India find themselves in a complicated situation that requires both countries to maintain a neat balance in their foreign policies. In fact, the future dynamics of their relationship will be, to a great extent, defined by external factors: the state of the Russia-US dialogue as well as the overall geopolitical environment in Eurasia, where China steps up to dominate the ongoing narrative. The navigation between conflicting interests across Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific will define the trajectory of India-Russia ties in the near term.
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