TOPIC: THE FUTURE DELIMITATION AND THE CHALLENGES TO FEDERALISM

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THE CONTEXT: Delimitation and readjustment of the seats in the Lok Sabha is due after 2026. Given the differential population matrix of northern and southern states such an exercise can lead to reduced political representation of southern states. As the time for reconsidering the freeze on delimitation exercise is coming closer, southern states are concerned that they would be marginalized further. This article analyses the various issues related to upcoming delimitation from the UPSC perspective.

THE CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS REGARDING THE DELIMITATION

• Article 81 of the Constitution states that Lok Sabha constituencies in the country should be equal by the size of the population.
• As per Article 82, after every census, the Parliament will enact a Delimitation Act. Once the Act is enacted, the Central Government sets up a Delimitation Commission.
• As per Article 170, the states also get classified into territorial constituencies after every census, according to the Delimitation Act.
• Based on the 1971 Census, the number of Lok Sabha constituencies for States was determined and frozen for the next 25 years through the 42nd Amendment Act 1976.
• In 2001, through the 84th Amendment Act, the freeze on the number of constituencies for each state was further prolonged until the first census after 2026.

REASONS FOR FREEZING OF SEATS

• An updated Census has been published every decade since 1951, but a Delimitation Commission has been set up on only four occasions – 1952, 1963, 1973 and 2002
• In its 1973 order, the Commission raised the maximum Lok Sabha members to 545 to account for population growth and the formation of new states.
• Since then, the number of members has remained unchanged. Of the 545 members, 543 were directly elected and two were nominated posts for the Anglo-Indian community, until a 2019 Constitutional Amendment removed this provision. So, the Lok Sabha strength now is 543.
• In 1976, the 42nd Amendment to the Constitution froze the number of Lok Sabha seats and put off delimitation for 25 years until the 2001 Census under Article 82.
• The Congress government, at the time, cited “family planning policies” as the reason for this suspension. The government stated that it did not want to punish states with effective population control measures.
• As their representation in the Lok Sabha would fall compared to states with high populations. The idea was to give states time to reduce their fertility rates and ensure parity across the country.
• But in 2002, delimitation was delayed for another 25 years, with the 84th Amendment under the BJP government. Though constituency boundaries were redrawn to account for changes in population according to the 2001 Census, the total number of Lok Sabha seats and the number of seats allotted to each state remained unchanged.
• The Amendment froze the allocation of seats in Article 82 until “the relevant figures for the first Census taken after the year 2026 have been published”.
• In 2008, it seemed to be reverting the freeze on Delimitation, but it was done only to remove the freeze for the SC and ST seats and adjust them according to the 2001 Census. It was done via the Election Commission’s Delimitation of Parliamentary and Assembly Constituencies Order, 2008.

REIGNITING THE DEBATE

In Indian federal democracy, a State’s relative population size gains political and economic significance. In sharp contrast to the northern States, population control has been achieved in the southern States through social development and economic growth. But as the delimitation exercise is set to begin, it seems to be unfair to southern states, which has reignited debate that allotting seats based on population would be a great injustice to states that have excelled in population control.

UPCOMING DELIMITATION

• If the Lok Sabha seats are reallocated in proportion to each state’s projected population in 2026, all the South Indian states would be losing seats.
• As, the share of the southern states in India’s population has drastically come down from 24.8% in 1971 to 19.9% in 2021 while for UP and Bihar it has gone up from 23% to 26%.
• Thus, the delimitation exercise of delimitation could reduce the political influence of the southern states.
• This political marginalisation of the south for demographic reasons could create tensions, some of which are already visible on the financial front.

NORTH-SOUTH DIVIDE

• There is already a north south divide due to economic, social, political and historical factors. For example, the 15^th Finance Commission use of the 2011 population census as a basis for the devolution of taxes has already marginalized southern states with less share of funds.
• The exercise to delimit parliamentary constituencies could deepen the north-south divide.

POLITICAL DYNAMICS

• The ruling party at the centre gain more seats in elections in the northern of country compared to the south.
• The future delimitation can increase the number of seats allotted to northern states compared to southern states which will be beneficial for incumbent ruling party at the centre.

HIGHER STAKE OF BIG STATES

• It is more likely to be seen that after delimitation, big states like Uttar Pradesh is likely to get up to 143 seats, a 79 per cent increase, while smaller state like Kerala’s representation will remain unchanged and that of Tamil Nadu will increase only by 10 seats.
• Thus, similar to the existing condition where bigger states have more say in the formation of union government due to their large representation will continue.
• Even delimitation may give them more power with an increase in a number of seats, leading to centralization of power at the centre.

SUB REGIONALISM

• As further readjustment of seats may lead to more power to fewer big states, the other smaller states, whether in the South or North east, may feel left out.
• This division of power can lead to sub-regionalism, which can even lead to feeling of separation and secessionism and can create condition for threat to internal security.
• Therefore, as recognising a person’s equal voice in the democratic process is important, recognising the regional balance of power in a federal structure is also essential.

THE CONCERNS OF THE SOUTHERN STATES

DIFFERENCE IN POPULATION GROWTH RATES

• The population growth rates differ between the non-Hindi-speaking southern States and the Hindi-speaking northern States.
• Between 1971 and 2011, the proportion of the population of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh increased from 44% to 48.2%.
• Whereas the proportion of population of the five southern States (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana) declined from 24.9% to 21.1%.
• A population-based delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies has been long opposed by political parties in the south. They have argued that a population-based delimitation will give an undue advantage to northern and central states in the Lok Sabha.

DECREASED POLITICAL REPRESENTATION

• Based on the previous census data and population projection, after the 2026 delimitation, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh will have a total of 222 MPs(143+79), while four south Indian states will have a combined representation of 165 in the Lok Sabha.

• If equal size of Lok Sabha constituencies by population is enforced today as in the population projections of 2023, the five southern States will lose 23 seats, while the northern States will gain 37.
• In other words, the proportion of political representation of northern States will increase by 6.81% and that of southern States will decline by 4.24%.
• Southern states which have implemented family planning programs more effectively than the states in North India would be penalized through reduced political representation.

THE NEED FOR DELIMITATION

ISSUE OF INAPPROPRIATE REPRESENTATION

• There is a notable difference between the number of parliamentary seats and the extent of population in a geographical unit.
• This leads to the underrepresentation of the area with the higher population as, despite the increase in population, the number of seats is still the same as decided in 1971.

SUBVERTING DEMOCRATIC PRINCIPLES

• There are issues of distorted political representation, which results in unequal value of votes of citizens. For instance, an MP from the Gangetic Valley represents about 25% more people than a non-Gangetic MP.
• To ensure democratic principles, it is necessary that every person vote should have equal value.

CONCERNS WITH EXCESSIVE FEDERALISM

• Due to the freeze of seats, there is an overrepresentation of citizens in smaller states in comparison to bigger states, which indicates a minority of states making important decisions on national policies.
• For example, studies based on 2011 census indicate that Kerala, Tamil Nadu and undivided Andhra is over represented by 17 seats while UP, Bihar and Rajasthan is under represented by  19 seats.

INABILITY OF MPs TO ADDRESS THEIR CONSTITUENCIES

• There is an increasing issue of increasing the distance between government and the governed. According to a study, India has one MP in the Lok Sabha for 2.2 million people, while the USA has one Congressman for 0.6 million people.
• If there are so many people on one MP, they will not be able to communicate with people and cannot address their concerns which will affect governance and administration.

HOW TO ADDRESS THE CHALLENGES?

GRADUAL SHIFT IN POLITICAL POWER

• There is a need of gradual shift in political power, for which there should be a mechanism for reallocation of seats after each decennial census.
• For, now there is no need to further delay the process of delimitation as change in demography needs to be reflected in seat allocations.

STRENGTHENING THE SMALLER STATES

• There are concerns that smaller states will be dominated by bigger states. Hence, a second state reorganization is needed.

INCREASE RAJYA SABHA POWER

• There needs to expand the role and composition of Rajya Sabha. Here, steps as direct elections, restoring domicile requirements, fixed number of seats can be taken in this regard.
• Also, a federal arrangement need to be devised to enable equal representation for each state, so that large states do not dominate the proceedings in the House.

INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF SEATS IN LOK SABHA

• There is a need of increase in number of seats in Lok Sabha to have adequate representation of people in the Parliament.
• It will also increase the responsiveness of Members of Parliament in their respective constituencies.

POPULATION CONTROL

• There is an urgent need for family planning in the states with higher populations. Although various government reports including NFHS V have observed that India is on course to achieve replacement level fertility rate, the TFR of Bihar (2.98) and Uttar Pradesh (2.35) is still  high compared to southern states which is lower than 2.
• Northern states should follow the success of southern states in fertility reduction. Government and civil societies in Northern states needs to proactively act to update entire state apparatus to achieve population balance.

STATUS OF TOTAL FERTILITY RATE(TFR) IN INDIA

• According to the NFHS-5 conducted from 2019-20, even though India’s overall decline of fertility rate has been encouraging and have achieved TFR of 2.
• There are wide inter-regional variations with five states still not having achieved replacement-level of fertility of 2.1.
• These states are Bihar (2.98), Meghalaya (2.91), Uttar Pradesh (2.35), Jharkhand (2.26) and Manipur (2.17). Sikkim and Andaman and Nicobar Islands have the lowest Total Fertility Rate (TFR). While, Southern states have TF R rate of less than 2.

THE CONCLUSION: It is not desirable to further delay delimitation and readjustment of legislative seats in the Lok Sabha and assemblies. This requires a consensus based approach involving all relevant stakeholders to devise an appropriate method for reconciling imperative of democracy and federalism. States that have effectively controlled their population should not be penalised through reduced political representation after delimitation in subsequent periods.

MAINS PRACTICE QUESTIONS

Q.1 Can we say that the new delimitation exercise post 2026 create asymmetry in the political representation between the North and the South? Suggest measures for their equitable representation in the Lok Sabha.

Q.2 In the federal political system, changes in population geography have a lasting impact on the political and economic geography. Explain.