March 1, 2024

Lukmaan IAS

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COP28 AND THE CLIMATE DEAL

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TAG: GS 3: ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT

THE CONTEXT: The recently concluded COP28 in Dubai aimed to address critical issues in combating climate change, particularly the pressing need to align actions with the 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold.

EXPLANATION:

  • However, an analysis of the agreement suggests a significant gap between aspirations and practical measures to achieve this ambitious goal.

Inadequacies in Addressing Emissions

  • Reality Check on Emissions:
    • Despite claims of progress, the UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report revealed a disheartening reality.
    • Global emissions in 2022 surged by at least a billion tonnes compared to 2019, indicating a nearly 2% rise, a troubling trend for climate targets.
  • IPCC Recommendations vs. Current Actions:
    • The IPCC guidelines underscore a crucial requirement: a 43% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions from 2019 levels by 2030 to sustain the 1.5-degree target.
    • However, current actions, as outlined in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are projected to lead to a mere 2% reduction by 2030, vastly inadequate to meet the urgent emission cut requirement.

Effectiveness of Climate Actions

  • Insufficiency of Annual Emission Reductions:
    • To achieve the necessary 43% cut by 2030, an unprecedented average annual reduction of 8.7% is mandated.
    • Historical data reveals such extensive cuts have never been accomplished, even during significant disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Lack of Immediate Action Acceleration:
    • Despite the agreement highlighting tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030, there is an evident absence of concrete steps to expedite immediate climate actions.

Challenges and Weaknesses in the Agreement

  • Insufficient Contribution of Measures:
    • Estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggest that the proposed measures could potentially save 7 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030.
    • However, this pales in comparison to the projected shortfall of 24 billion tonnes, as per the Emissions Gap Report.
  • Methane Emissions and Weak Agreements:
    • The agreement’s focus on methane reductions, though impactful due to methane’s potency, is limited as it accounts for less than a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions.
    • Furthermore, the COP28 agreement on methane cuts lacks defined reduction targets and relies heavily on voluntary commitments.

Financial Constraints and Lack of Resourcing

  • Limitations in Financial Aid:
    • Many developing countries outlined in their NDCs that they could amplify climate actions if provided with requisite financial and technological support.
    • Unfortunately, COP28 failed to address this crucial aspect, hindering the potential acceleration of climate actions.

Conclusion

  • The COP28 agreement, despite its symbolic acknowledgment of transitioning from fossil fuels and emphasizing renewable energy and efficiency improvements, falls short in several critical aspects.
  • The disparity between ambitious climate targets and practical measures to achieve them persists, with insufficient emission reductions and inadequate financial support hampering global efforts to combat climate change effectively.
  • The urgent need for more concrete, aggressive actions remain unmet, jeopardizing the prospect of attaining the 1.5-degree Celsius pathway.

SOURCE: https://indianexpress.com/article/world/climate-change/given-a-robust-action-plan-to-keep-1-5c-target-within-reach-al-jaber-9067394/

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