TAG: GS 3: ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT
THE CONTEXT: A recent study forecasts unprecedented global mean surface temperatures during the 2023-2024 winter, potentially breaking historical records due to the confluence of the El Nino event and an enduring global warming trend.
EXPLANATION:
- The paper, published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, highlights projections that could push temperatures beyond the critical 1.5-degree Celsius threshold above pre-industrial levels, with far-reaching implications for the environment.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS:
- Temperature Anomalies:
- The global average temperature from June to October 2023 surpassed the 1991-2020 average by 0.57℃.
- In August and September, temperatures surpassed historical averages by 0.62℃ and 0.69℃, respectively, beating the 2016 record.
- Global Projection:
- It projects a potential 1.38°C rise in global mean surface temperatures in 2023, possibly surpassing the 2016 record of 1.29°C above pre-industrial levels.
DRIVERS OF TEMPERATURE INCREASE:
- El Nino Impact:
- The emergent El Nino pattern, coupled with the persistent long-term warming trend, is identified as the primary drivers of the escalating temperatures.
- Consequences:
- The forecasted temperature rise could exacerbate sea-level rise, sea-ice loss, and significantly impact the global ecosystem and food security, with potential ramifications extending into 2024.
TEMPERATURE EXCEEDANCE AND REGIONAL IMPACTS:
- Temperature Records:
- In 2023, temperatures surpassed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels on 86 days, leading to heatwaves impacting North America, southern Europe, and Asia during summer.
- Regional Projections:
- Multiple climate prediction systems indicate exceptionally warm winter conditions in mid-low latitude regions of Eurasia and the Americas, especially in China, expected to experience abnormal warming significantly surpassing the global average.
EL NINO’S ROLE AND PREDICTIONS:
- Mature El Nino:
- Anticipated maturation of El Nino this winter, releasing heat into the atmosphere and potentially enhancing global mean surface temperatures.
- Impending Climate Variations:
- El Nino’s dominance in the 2023-2024 northern hemisphere winter is expected, triggering anomalous anticyclone activity in the Northwest Pacific, leading to warm and dry weather patterns.
IMPACT ON PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICAN ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION:
- Teleconnection Patterns:
- El Nino may initiate a Pacific-North American atmospheric teleconnection, influencing winter climates in East Asia and North America.
- Typical Outcomes:
- Positive phases of this pattern could result in above-average temperatures in western Canada and western U.S., contrasting with below-average temperatures in south-central and southeastern U.S., linked to reduced precipitation in specific regions.
CONCLUSION:
- The study underscores the potential for unprecedented winter temperatures in 2023-2024, propelled by El Nino’s intensification and the continued global warming trend.
- These projections have far-reaching implications for regional climates, ecosystems, and food security, necessitating preparedness and mitigation strategies to address the anticipated environmental impacts.
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