Table of Contents
THE CONTEXT: According to a study in The Lancet, India is undergoing a rapid demographic transition, with the total fertility rate projected to decline to 1.29 by 2051. This estimate is lower than projections by the government and the UN, suggesting India’s population may stabilize below 1.7 billion before 2065. The demographic transition has been driven by economic development, lower infant and child mortality, and rising women’s education and work participation.
ISSUES:
- Demographic Transition in India: India is undergoing a demographic transition, moving from high fertility and mortality rates to lower rates. This transition significantly affects the country’s population growth, age structure, and economic development.
- Population Growth and Projections: India’s population is projected to peak at around 1.65 billion by 2061 and then start declining. However, recent estimates from The Lancet suggest India’s total fertility rate (TFR) could drop to 1.29 by 2051, lower than previous government and UN projections. This faster decline in fertility could mean India’s population may stabilize below 1.7 billion much earlier than 2065.
- Uneven Transition Across States: The demographic transition is uneven across Indian states. States like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh are further along, while states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand lag. Even within states, there are significant variations in fertility rates at the district level.
- Implications of Demographic Transition: Declining fertility and population growth will lead to a falling dependency ratio with a larger working-age population. This can boost economic growth through increased productivity and resources for education. However, it will also result in an aging population and increased demand for healthcare, which India will need to prepare for.
- Policy Considerations: To capitalize on the demographic dividend, India needs to focus on skill development, especially for women and underprivileged groups. Investments in higher education and technical/professional training will be crucial as the number of children enrolling in schools declines. Policies to increase female labor force participation and address regional imbalances in the workforce will also be necessary.
THE WAY FORWARD:
- Skill Development for Women and Underprivileged Groups: Implement comprehensive skill development programs targeting women and marginalized communities to enhance their employability in the evolving economic landscape. This includes vocational training, digital literacy programs, and entrepreneurship development initiatives.
- Educational Reforms: Focus on improving the quality of education at the middle and higher levels to reduce dropout rates. Invest in technical and professional education to prepare the youth for the demands of the modern economy. This could involve updating curricula, training teachers, and improving infrastructure.
- Healthcare Infrastructure: Strengthen the healthcare system to address the needs of an aging population and the associated increase in demand for healthcare services. This includes expanding healthcare facilities, training healthcare professionals, and promoting preventive healthcare measures.
- Encouraging Female Workforce Participation: Implement policies that support women’s participation in the workforce, such as flexible working hours, maternity leave benefits, and childcare facilities. This will help tap into female workers’ underutilized potential.
- Sectoral and Spatial Redistribution of Workforce: To balance the sectoral distribution of the workforce and promote the movement of labor from agriculture to industries and services. Encourage skill development in sectors projected to experience growth and facilitate the north-south movement of labor to create spatial balance in the labor market.
- Improving Working Conditions for Migrant Workers: Establish institutional safeguards to improve working conditions, eliminate wage discrimination, and address security concerns for migrant workers. This could include legal protections, access to social services, and mechanisms for grievance redressal.
- Preventive Healthcare: Promote preventive healthcare measures to reduce the burden of disease and improve the overall health of the population. This includes vaccination programs, health education, and lifestyle interventions.
- Healthcare for the Elderly: Develop specialized healthcare services for the elderly, including senior care, chronic disease management, and palliative care services. This will help in addressing the healthcare needs of an aging population.
THE CONCLUSION:
The demographic transition presents both opportunities and challenges for India. It can boost economic growth through increased labor productivity and resources for education and skill development. However, it will also lead to an aging population and increased healthcare needs. To capitalize on the demographic dividend, India must focus on skill development, increasing women’s workforce participation, and managing spatial and sectoral redistribution of labor.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTIONS:
Q.1 Discuss the main objectives of Population Education and point out the measures to achieve them in India in detail. 2021
Q.2 Critically examine whether the growing population is the cause of poverty OR poverty is the leading cause of population increase in India. 2015
Q.3 Demographic Dividend in India will remain only theoretical unless our manpower becomes more educated, aware, skilled, and creative.” What measures have been taken by the government to enhance the capacity of our population to be more productive and employable? 2016
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q.1 India’s demographic dividend presents both opportunities and challenges.” Discuss this statement in the context of the country’s changing age structure and its impact on various sectors.
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