“Technology has become a key driver of future wars.”
THE INTRODUCTION: Hybrid warfare is a military strategy in which conventional means are employed and integrated with unconventional methods to achieve dominance or inflict damage, to subvert or influence or to wage war. Hybrid wars use multi-domain warfighting approaches, including cyberattacks, disinformation and subversion, economic blackmail and sabotage and sponsorship of proxy forces to destabilise a society or a nation by influencing its decision-making process without resorting to traditional conflict. This article analyses various aspects of the hybrid war, measures taken and what needs to be done to deal with this evolving threat.
CHANGING PHASE OF THE WARFARE
- Warfare is a dynamic and evolving concept going through various changes with time. Technology has been a major factor in this evolution and a determining factor.
- Without going into the historical aspect, we can trace the recent changing perspective of the war after world war 2, when nuclear weapons became the base of the Cold War between two superpowers.
- After the dissolution of the USSR, the legitimacy threat of the nuclear war was felt as a powerful nuclear nation like the USSR was not able to maintain the unity of its nation.
- It is said that technology is a double-edged sword. With the evolution of the Digital era, the negative externalities of technology became visible. As data more and more become available in the invisible cyberspace whether it is private data, organisational data or national data, the threat loomed with a multiplier effect.
- Now emerging technologies like Industrial Revolution 4.0, Artificial intelligence, and cyber threats are posing new threats to national security.
- Whether it is AI, or computing power, or satellite imagery and secure data transmission, or round-the-clock transparency on the battlefield, these new-age niche technologies are revolutionary to the future planning and conduct of warfare.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONVENTIONAL WARFARE AND HYBRID WARFARE
CONVENTIONAL WARFARE
- Dominated by military might
- Normally deterrence works in Conventional war
- It is mostly interstate war
- It is dominated by nuclear weapons where coercive and hard power is used against an opponent
- It needs state power to deal with this
- Capital intensive warfare-relying only on hard ‘metal on metal’ battles.
HYBRID WARFARE
- It is mix of Military and Digital — an information-psychological element that forms the basis of ‘hybrid warfare’ with the aim to influence primarily public consciousness, rather than the armed forces or the State’s infrastructure.
- Normally deterrence doesn’t work
- It is against the state, private players as well as organisations
- It is multi-layered war including cyber to aerospace, precision munitions to unmanned platforms, hyper-Sonics to autonomous systems, AI and quantum computing to blockchain technologies
- It needs comprehensive national power- in terms of multi-pronged and multi-stakeholder approach including states, international organisations, non-governmental organisations and private firms.
- Asymmetry Warfare—Weaker powers with less money and firepower stand a good chance to win wars
VARIOUS TYPES OF TECHNOLOGIES AS THREAT TO NATIONAL SECURITY
AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS: Described as systems that can perform tasks in a changing environment with limited human intervention or control.
- Autonomous systems present a growing attack surface for malicious cyber actors because of their dependence on software, computing, and connectivity. At the same time, they can also be vulnerable to supply chain disruptions or exploitation by adversaries. Given the broad data that many of these systems collect, they are also likely to be ripe targets for foreign intelligence collection.
o E.g.-Autonomous Vehicles from China have been included in the List of US National Security Threats as it gathers a lot of information.
- Drones present a unique challenge to the security organisations. In the wrong hands, regular consumer drones can be used as lethal weapons. It enables terrorists to plan, coordinate and launch a vast range of deadly and potentially disruptive attacks against civilians, soft targets, and critical infrastructure.
- The number of non-state actors already using aerial drones has steadily increased over the past several years. Through rapid advances in drone technology, AROS is slated to become a primary tactic of terrorist attacks in the future.
GENERATIVE AI
There has been a significant increase in cyber tools and services over the next five years that “will have a profound impact on the threat landscape, as more state and non-state actors obtain capabilities and intelligence not previously available to them.
- Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs): A sophisticated, sustained cyberattack occurs when an intruder enters a network undetected, remaining for a long time to steal sensitive data. They frequently involve the use of AI to avoid detection and target specific organizations or individuals.
- AI-powered malware: Malware that uses AI has been taught to think for itself, adapt its course of action in response to the situation, and particularly target its victims’ systems.
- Phishing: Using natural language processing and machine learning, attackers create convincing phishing emails and messages that are designed to trick individuals into revealing sensitive information.
- Deepfake attacks: These employ artificial intelligence-generated synthetic media, such as fake images, videos, or audio recordings that are indistinguishable from real ones. They can be used to impersonate people in authority within a company, such as a CEO or network administrators or even used to spread false information, which can be used for malicious purposes.
INFORMATION WARFARE
- Information warfare is the manipulation of information trusted by a target without the target’s awareness so that the target will make decisions against their interest but in the interest of the one conducting information warfare.
o E.g. In parallel with setting up secret military training camps, ISIL established missionary offices spreading their Salafi message in local communities as well as gathering information on all social structures. This information was utilized to target political and military opposition.
CYBER THREATS SUBVERTING THE DEMOCRACY
- Cyber-enabled information operations are clearly of unique concern for modern democratic societies.
- E.g. May 2014 the Russian hacker group CyberBerkut exploited cyber vulnerabilities (routers, software and hard drives) of the Ukrainian National Election Commission to undermine the credibility of the elections.
QUANTUM INFORMATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
- Quantum technologies can pose national security challenges. A large-scale quantum computer could potentially allow for the decryption of the most commonly used cybersecurity protocols. Thus it put at risk the cyber infrastructure protecting today’s economic and national security communications.
- In short, whoever wins the race for quantum computing supremacy could potentially compromise the communications of others.
BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY
- The use of cryptocurrencies on the darknet for terror acts, drug trafficking, and other illicit activities poses a serious threat to India’s national security and a big threat to security agencies as well.
- Cryptocurrencies have emerged as one of the most advanced methods for terror financing. And when it is transacted on the darknet through networks like TOR, Freenet, Zeronet, and Perfectdark, it becomes untraceable for security officials.
VARIOUS TYPES OF CHALLENGES FACED BY INDIA
- Cyber-attacks on Critical infrastructure: An adversary can pressure the government to concede to its demands by threatening devastating cyber-attacks aimed at information infrastructure, such as networks governing hospitals or electricity and water supplies.
- Chinese cyber-attacks on Indian military installations during the Pakistani retaliation to Indian Air Force’s attack on terror camps in Balakot on February 26, 2019.
- Online radicalisation: In 2020 there were multiple reports in the media and from the NIA of suspected cases of online terrorist radicalization, particularly in southern Indian states. It leads to communalism, naxalism and separatism in the long run.
- Electoral interference: In a way to sabotage the democratic institution 2001 parliament attack was done. However, with a hybrid war scenario, there are various threats to the election process. Election machinery could be attacked. Data could be stolen, information leaked and systems brought to a standstill. There could be hacks into databases, and cyber-attacks on election war rooms and critical Election Commission (EC) infrastructure.
- Misinformation: various types of misinformation like international misinformation, such as visuals of Vladimir Putin in Buddhist garb generated by artificial intelligence, or communal misinformation, such as an old video presenting alleged caste atrocities being presented as a recent development has been promoting falsehoods and fuelling protests against a section of people.
- State-sponsored cyber-attacks: India has been at the receiving end of state-sponsored terrorism (proxy war) from Pakistan and cyber threats from China. China furthers its national objectives through the use of non-contact warfare, including cyber warfare, electronic warfare, integrated network electronic warfare, information operations, and the ‘three warfare strategy’ (psychological, media, and legal warfare).
- New forms of terrorist attacks such as ‘lone-wolf’ and ‘sleeper cells’: These attacks are extremely difficult to detect and, in most cases, the financial and ideological source remains anonymous.
- Data Theft: It is the illegal transfer or storage of personal, confidential, or financial information.
- Pakistan-based group Transparent Tribe has been conducting cyber-attacks against the Indian Army and the education sector. The group is believed to be attempting to obtain sensitive information via the malicious file ‘Revision of Officers posting policy’, which is disguised as a legitimate document.
MEASURES THAT HAVE BEEN TAKEN BY INDIA
FOR THE SECURITY OF DEFENCE SYSTEMS FROM CYBER THREAT
- India has established the defence cyber and space agencies and the Armed Forces Special Operations Division. If India were to establish integrated theatre commands, the inter-services theatre commander will need to be given autonomy to coordinate cyber and electronic warfare for greater network centricity of the tri-services down to the tactical level.
INTEGRATED THEATRE COMMANDS
- On the recommendations of several committees like the Kargil War Committee, Naresh Chandra Committee, Shekatkar Committee etc., India will see its first Integrated Theatre Commands (ITC) in August 2023. The maritime ITC is likely to be in Karnataka and will be under naval command.
CYBERWARFARE AND DEFENCE CAPABILITIES
- India’s structure of surveillance and monitoring cyber capabilities are decentred and characterised by multiple agencies:-
- Central Monitoring System: Central Monitoring System (CMS) gives India’s security agencies and income tax officials centralized access to the country’s telecommunications network. It helps in the lawful interception and monitoring of communications.
- National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO) is the lead body responsible for technical intelligence in India. The NTRO reports to the National Security Adviser and falls under the National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Centre, which is deemed as the designated nodal agency (under Section 70A of the Information Technology Act, 2000) to protect all critical information infrastructure.
- Defence Research and Development Organisation: Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (CAIR) is a premier laboratory of DRDO involved in Research and Development in the areas of Artificial Intelligence.
- National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Centre (NCIIPC): It is an organisation of the Government of India created under Section 70A of the Information Technology Act, 2000: It provides the strategic leadership to the government’s efforts to “reduce vulnerabilities against cyber terrorism, cyber warfare and other threats.
- Computer Emergency Response Team–India (CERT–IN) is responsible for protecting all noncritical information infrastructure and collecting all reports on cyber attacks and incidents. It is also supposed to serve as the national agency for incident response under Section 70B of the Information Technology Act, of 2000.
ANTI-SATELLITE MISSILE CAPABILITY
- In 2019, India successfully test-fired an anti-satellite missile (Mission Shakti), thereby joining a small group of countries i.e. the US, Russia and China, to possess such a capability.
THE WAY FORWARD
- India must develop a ‘whole of government’ approach to tackle hybrid warfare threats from its adversaries. For instance, a coordinated ‘grand plan’ encompassing all ministries, can be used to address such risks.
- India must boost the military’s capabilities (through a specialised force with appropriate skills training) to tackle hybrid threats. ISR capabilities, particularly in the space and ariel dimensions, will need to be developed further.
- The armed forces must prioritise information warfare capabilities (including psychological operations, and electronic and cyber warfare) at all levels. It must also prepare to induct new technologies into its warfighting capacities, including artificial intelligence, and hypersonic and quantum sciences, which must be backed by adequate government support and the military’s willingness to accept indigenous products.
- The parliamentary standing committee on finance has proposed a legislation with India’s national security considerations at the core. The chairman of the committee pointed out that terror financing using cryptos poses domestic security threats. Investors have to be watchful regarding the circumstances revolving around cryptocurrency and blockchain technology.
- Need to include the private sector: It will help in innovating new technologies to deal with the hybrid war. As it can be seen in the Recent Ukraine Crisis, various tech giants like Google, Meta etc. helped Ukraine with their expertise.
- International Cooperation: The need of the hour is to calibrate strategic and operational level responses by establishing an international framework to facilitate cooperation and collaboration across borders, develop institutional measures, estimate threats, upgrade the armed forces by providing training etc.
- The Global Counter-Terrorism Programme on Autonomous and Remotely Operated Systems (AROS Programme) was created in 2021 to support member states in addressing the threat posed by drones, UAS, and other AROS.
THE CONCLUSION: Hybrid warfare can be tackled through Comprehensive National Power (CNP). CNP includes a strong economy; military strength; governance; human capital; science & technology; geography and natural resources; foreign policy and diplomacy; and, national will and conscientious leadership. It can be developed with a multi-stakeholder approach including government agencies, the private sector and civil society. In this digital era, multidimensional hybrid war threat has to be dealt with for a comprehensive secure environment.
Mains Question:
Q.1 With the evolving nature of war, what are the key elements of Hybrid warfare and how it poses a threat to the security landscape of the country?
Q.2 Analyse the steps taken by the government to deal with the Hybrid Warfare.
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