THE CONTEXT: Recently, Hamas launched its lethal attacks on Israel; the assault has blown the efforts of the US and Israel to promote normalization of relations with Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia.
MORE ON THE NEWS:
- Recently, Israeli Prime Minister showcased maps at the United Nations General Assembly.
- One map depicted an isolated Israel in 1948, while the other showed Arab neighbours that now had peace agreements with Israel, Egypt, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Jordan. It also showed all the occupied Palestinian territories, the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, as integral parts of Israel.
- He specifically praised the normalization process with Saudi Arabia and emphasized that the Palestinians should not have veto power over this process.
WHAT IS SAUDI-ISRAEL NORMALISATION?
- Saudi Arabia has been a big proponent of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. The initiative includes the establishment of a Palestinian state and a solution for Palestine refugees for the normalisation process with Israel. Saudi demands for Israel withdrawal from Palestinian territory and Syria’s Golan Heights.
- The process of normalization has been on the Saudi table since 2020. The normalization process is a US-backed diplomacy where diplomatic activities between the USA, Israel, and Saudi Arabia have even stated broad contours of the agreement.
- Negotiations between Israel, Saudi Arabia and USA even pushed for the deadline to be completed within 2023.
Condition of Saudi for normalization:
- S. approval for a civilian nuclear programme that provides for uranium enrichment within the country
- Israeli commitment to a process leading to a two-state solution with the Palestinians
- An “iron-clad” U.S. security guarantee for the country like to be included in North Atlantic Treaty Organization
- Sales of advanced weapons ‘
Israel stand:
- Israel stand is still optimistic expecting a deal to be reached soon, and by bridging the gap, there is a chance that in the first quarter of 2024, details of the deal will be finalized.
- It is not objecting to Saudi Arabia’s desire to build a nuclear programme as far as it is for civilian nuclear programme for energy requirements.
- However, Israel has rejected concessions to the Palestinian Authority (PA) government as part of normalising relations, including a settlement freeze in the occupied West Bank.
Palestinian stand:
Palestine has put its own set of conditions in exchange for Saudi Arabia normalising ties with Israel.
- Reopening of the US consulate in occupied East Jerusalem, which former US President Donald Trump closed in 2019.
- Asked the US to back full Palestinian representation at the United Nations.
- Asked Israel to give the Palestine Authorities more control over some parts of the occupied West Bank and getting rid of illegal Israeli outposts.
Iran stand:
- Iranian President has warned Saudi Arabia against making any deal with Israel by making a statement that any such deal would be a “stab in the back of the Palestinian people and their resistance”.
ISSUES:
- Palestine issue not recognised: Palestine issue was not taken into regard during the normalization discussion of Israel and Saudi Arabia.
- US opposing nuclear programme: There are concerns regarding Saudi developing its own nuclear programme, considering that it poses an unacceptable proliferation risk.
- Challenges for US in Israel: PM of Israel heads an extreme right-wing coalition determined to accelerate the Jewish settlements in the Occupied West Bank and curb the judiciary’s independence which is against US principles as USA is a democratic country.
- Saudi condemn of Israel: Saudi has repeatedly called out Israel for deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights and the repetition of systematic provocations of its sanctities.
- US not agreeing to Saudi’s condition: There are also obstacles to the U.S. sales of advanced weapons, largely due to Saudi Arabia’s poor human rights record at home and in Yemen.
IMPACT DUE TO GAZAH WAR:
- Impact on Palestine: The Gazah war has once again brought the Palestine issue to the forefront and at the centre of West Asian politics, and Saudi recognized the necessity of addressing the Palestine issue. Saudi Arabia has recognised that peace and stability in the region are not possible without Palestinian interests being addressed.
- Impact on Saudi-Israel negotiation process: Saudi criticized Israel’s action, which can have an impact on the rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
- Blame on Iran: Some are blaming Iran, arguing that the Islamic Republic has instigated the Hamas attacks to block Saudi Arabia’s normalisation initiative with Israel. This argument has little credibility as Saudi-Iran ties have already been normalised under Chinese mediation.
- Impact wide areas: The global fallout from such a development would be quite profound. The Islamic mainstream would likely follow the Saudi lead. It would further marginalize the “Palestinians’ Cause” and may polarize and radicalize along with other opponents of Israel such as Iran and Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Islamic State.
THE WAY FORWARD:
- Concrete action for Palestine: There is a need to have concrete action to serve Palestine’s interests, and the international community must act now to activate a credible peace plan that enables a two-state solution.
- Faster normalization process: There is a need to act up on the faster normalization process between Israel and Saudi Arabia to bring peace and stability in the region and deepen ties between both the countries.
- Saudi can act as mediator: Saudi can act as mediator for the peace in the region. It will help in diplomatic ties with Israel that would balance the Saudi’s recent reconciliation with Iran and Syria. It helps it emerge as a more nationalist power than an Islamic one.
THE CONCLUSION: Gaza attack can have profound consequences for regional geopolitics and can cause a delay in the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Promoting the Palestinian cause will now form an important part of this foreign policy approach.
PREVIOUS YEAR QUESTIONS
Q.1 “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (2018)
Q.2 ‘Too little cash, too much politics, leave UNESCO fighting for life.’ Discuss the statement in the light of the US’ withdrawal and its accusation of the cultural body as being ‘anti-Israel bias’.(2019)
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION
Comment on the impact of Israel-Palestine conflict on the Israel-Saudi Arabia normalization process.
NOTE: Please refer to Mains Focus article of ‘Toofan al-aqsa jolts west asian geostrategic Architecture’ for more on the news.
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