The USA Withdrawal from Afghanistan- Opportunities and Challenges for India

The Context: USA President Biden has announced the withdrawal of all US troops from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021, the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. The development has deep implications on the South Asia region and will impact regional stability at a large scale. In this article, we will analyze the opportunities and challenges for India after the USA withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The USA Withdrawal from Afghanistan:  All You Need to Know

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What does the USA Withdrawal from Afghanistan Signify for different Stakeholders?

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For India

• The US withdrawal will have grave implications for India. Their presence provided a security umbrella for the government and even our interests there.
• India had very good ties with the democratically elected government in Kabul and had earned a tremendous reservoir of goodwill there.
• India has invested heavily in infrastructure projects like the making of the Parliament Building, the development of Kabul’s electricity grid, the Zaranj – Delaram road, and many other projects.
• On the other hand, we have never had good ties with the Taliban and their role in the hijacking of IC 814 to Kandahar still rankles.
• Our influence in Afghanistan and our very presence will be at risk should the Taliban come to power in the aftermath of the US withdrawal.
• India has repeatedly expressed its concern and is in favor of a two-pronged approach for Afghanistan: Encourage the warring sides to agree to total ceasefire and bring them to the negotiating table for them to draw up a political agreement on their own.
• Moreover, the first action by India after taking over the presidency of the United Nations Security Council is to convene a meeting to discuss the worsening situation in Afghanistan.

Opportunities for India

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Challenges for India

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Should India have Dialogue with the Taliban?

India should have a dialogue with the Taliban:

• The Taliban, no longer an untouchable force, control much of the country’s rural territories.
• The U.S. has already signed a deal with the Taliban, China welcomed the Taliban delegation, Russia hosted talks many times and European powers have also shown interest in sponsoring talks. So, India has to be more flexible and adapt to the new strategic reality.
• Russia called another meeting, namely troika plus, for bringing political reconciliation in Afghanistan. Although, Russia has invited the United States, Pakistan and China to the meeting and kept away India.

What kind of dialogue does India have with the Taliban?

• Since the fall of the Taliban, India has cultivated deep ties with the Afghan people and the government, with investments in multiple projects dealing with education, power generation, irrigation, and other infrastructure development.
• India should have a dialogue with the Taliban but continue the support to the elected government in terms of trani9ng the security and police forces, and rallying other countries to finance the Afghanistan government, in its efforts to ensure peace.
• India joining the peace process could strengthen the hands of the Afghan government, which is negotiating from a position of weakness.
• If the Taliban agrees to share power elected government, it is good but if it does not agree then the Indian government should try to support the elected government. If the Taliban takes power forcefully, it would not be acceptable for India.
• The question India faces, like the other stakeholders, is how to help Afghanistan end the violence without a total capitulation to the Taliban. New Delhi should, using its regional clout as well as its deep ties with both the U.S. and Russia for peace in Afghanistan.

What Should be the Way Forward for India?

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Conclusion: Although, USA withdrawal brings adverse impacts in India’s Afghanistan policy. While the development brings many challenges for India but it also opens many opportunities to play an active role in Afghanistan. India needs to be careful to play its card in its Afghanistan policy.

Questions to Ponder

1. ‘USA withdrawal from Afghanistan is both a challenge and an opportunity for India’. Comment on the statement.
2. Discuss how the USA withdrawal from Afghanistan would impact India’s interests in Afghanistan?
3. India needs to decide its role in Afghanistan, it is sure that India can’t be merely a spectator in the context of Afghanistan. Discuss the statement in light of recent developments.