ISRAEL IS FIGHTING IN THE DARK IN GAZA

THE CONTEXT: Israel continues deadly bombardment of Gaza with latest attacks reported in the Nuseirat refugee camp and Khan Younis. Israel continues to state that it will continue the war in Gaza “with or without international support”.

BACKGROUND:

Theodor Herzl, one of the founders of modern political Zionism, wrote in Der Judenstaat (The Jewish State), a pamphlet published in 1896. It was stated in the pamphlet that the Jewish state would form a part of a wall of defence for Europe in Asia, an outpost of civilisation against barbarism,”.
It was argued that security for Jews could be guaranteed only by the creation of a separate national state for them and requested the Ottoman Sultan to give Palestine to the Jews.
It was promised to undertake the regulations of the whole of Turkey’s finances in return.
The movement Herzl began culminated in the creation of the state of Israel in historical Palestine in 1948.
More than 75 years later, the civilisational outpost that Herzl had imagined is now continuing its illegal occupation of Palestinian territories and is fighting a calamitous war on the Gaza Strip.

ISRAEL NARRATIVE OF WAR:

Israel objectives:

1. To free the hostages as Hamas had taken some 240 hostages during its raid.

2. To “dismantle” Hamas.

3. To rebuild Israel’s deterrence so that another attack would not happen.

Large number of killings: In a short span of time, Israel, has killed 20,000 Palestinians, a vast majority of them women and children, wounded over 50,000 and displaced almost 90% of the enclave’s population. It has managed to turn Gaza into what the United Nations called a “graveyard for children and a living hell for everyone else”.
Unequal power: In terms of military capabilities, Hamas does not stand even for a distant comparison with Israel. Israel is a nuclear power and a developed economy, which is politically and militarily backed by the United States, equipped with some of the world’s most advanced offensive and defensive weapons. Israel also controls all of Gaza’s border except the Rafah crossing in the south into Egypt. Hamas, on the other side, has roughly 50,000 fighters with assault rifles and short- to medium-range rockets.
Unsuccessful in hostage operation: Israel has managed to free only one hostage through its military operation and the other over 100 hostages who were released were part of a brief ceasefire deal that Israel had struck with Hamas.
Not good in unconventional wars: While Israel has an excellent track record against its conventional rivals in the region, its record against non-state actors has always been mixed. Israel has not fought a conventional war in 50 years.

1. Invasion of Lebanon: In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon to push the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) out of the country. It was expected the war would bring “40 years of peace”. But the war itself lasted 18 years, even after Israel pushed the PLO out of Lebanon. In 2006, it invaded Lebanon again, this time to crush After a month of intense ground battle, Israel had to accept a ceasefire, leaving Hezbollah politically stronger. Ever since, Hezbollah has rebuilt its military strength many times.

2. Attack on Gaza: After it withdrew from Gaza in 2005 following the second intifada, Israel carried out at least four major bombing campaigns in the enclave aimed at weakening Hamas. Still, it could not prevent the October 7 attack, the deadliest cross-border attack since 1948.

3. Current war: Israel’s main narrative is that Hamas is like the Islamic State (IS) and it aims to destroy it like the physical structure of IS was destroyed. But this sweeping narrative overlooks some fundamental complexities in West Asia. The IS was an outgrowth of al-Qaeda which exploited the chaos in the region to capture territories and spread terror. It imposed itself on the peoples of Syria and Iraq and lacked any social or political cause. But in the case of Israel-Palestine, the fundamental contradiction is Israel’s continuing occupation of the Palestinian territories. Hamas might be a terrorist outfit for Israel but for a vast majority of other regional actors, it is fighting Israel’s violent occupation. Hamas has a social and political cause which is the liberation of Palestine and is deeply entrenched in Palestinian society.

IMPACT OF THE WAR

Attacking Israel economy: A long war would expose Israel’s weaknesses, Israel has mobilised some 3,00,000 reservists, which is adding stress to its economy. Hamas, which uses Gaza’s extensive tunnel networks to hide and fight, continues to fire rockets into Israel, terrorising communities and disrupting local economies.
Isolating Israel: The high civilian casualties and the sheer brutality of Israel’s offensive in Gaza have isolated the Israel globally. The U.S. still stands with Israel, but recent remarks by U.S. President that Israel’s “indiscriminate bombing” would isolate it globally suggest toward this.
Arab-Israel normalisation on halt: The Arab-Israel normalisation is on halt and can be said as dead, at least for now.
Unstable West Asia: Houthis, the pro-Iran Shia rebels who control much of Yemen, are widening the war by targeting tankers in the Red Sea. It is threatening one of the busiest global shipping lanes and drawing the U.S. deeper into the conflict.

THE CONCLUSION:

Israel’s objective to eradicate Hamas, free hostages and bolster its own deterrence, seems not achievable even after weeks of intense bombing campaigns of this century. It is in a way increasing the complexities of the power relations of west Asia region.

MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION

Q) “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled ”. Discuss. (2018)

PREVIOUS YEAR QUESTION

Q) Israel’s narrative of Hamas equating it with the Islamic State overlooks some fundamental complexities in West Asia. Comment.

SOURCE: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/israel-is-fighting-in-the-dark-in-gaza/article67666853.ece#:~:text=Hamas%2C%20which%20uses%20Gaza’s%20extensive,isolated%20the%20Jewish%20state%20globally.

ON ISRAEL-PALESTINE, INDIA’S DOMESTIC IDENTITY POLITICS MUST NOT DRIVE APPROACH

THE CONTEXT: Recently, there seems to be a shift in India’s foreign policy in the context of the Israel-Palestine conflict. This shift seems to be based on domestic identity politics and electoral gains. Also, the preventive detention of a former MP before a solidarity meeting for Gaza residents and the arrest of protestors in different states have raised concerns.

INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY ON ISRAEL-PALESTINE

India’s historical stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict has always leaned towards Palestine, driven by the need to maintain good relations with Arab countries. It was also guided by the Non-Aligned Movement and the United Nations.
India was the first non-Arab country to recognise the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) as the legitimate representative of Palestine in the 1970s, giving the group full diplomatic status in the 1980s.
It was only after the PLO began a dialogue with Israel, and as US pressure began to build, that India finally established diplomatic ties with Israel in 1992.
Even then, India remained committed to the Palestinian cause and continued nurturing its relations with the Muslim-majority nations in the Middle East.
However, in the past few years, India and Israel have come closer due to ideological similarities. Also, trade and innovation have also drawn the two countries together.

ISSUES

The departure of India’s stand: There seems to be a departure of India from its historical stand in the case of the Israel-Palestine conflict with a shifting focus to Israel despite its historical commitment to the two-state solution. India’s relations with Israel have strengthened considerably in recent years, encompassing various sectors like trade, technology, defence, and counter-terrorism cooperation.
Ideological alignment: There has been growing ideological alignment between India and Israel in the recent times. Also, India abstained to back a UN resolution for a “humanitarian truce” in Gaza is also against the public sentiments showing solidarity to victims.
Issue of freedom of speech: Recent detentions and arrests of protestors is indicating towards the curtailing of freedom of speech of the citizens who dissent from the government stance. These detentions threaten to undermine all the previous efforts that India’s foreign policy has maintained on the conflict.

THE WAY FORWARD

Domestic policies should not be affected: India’s diplomatic decisions need to be guided by national interest, necessitating a balance between maintaining strong relations with Israel, supporting Palestine, and developing ties with the Arab world. There should not be divisive policy by formation of identity politics in the nation as it tends to affect domestic policies.
Need to Condemn terror: Whatever may be the situation, terror should not be allowed in any case and humanitarian crisis needs to be addressed. This ongoing conflict in Gaza is a matter of serious concern, and there is a need for urgent de-escalation with the delivery of assistance to address the issue.
Status quo on ‘Two-state solution’: India needs to maintain its status quo on the two-state solution by balancing relations with both the countries. India will need to mobilise all its diplomatic skills and goodwill to negotiate with the stakeholders for its long-term strategic interests.
Diplomacy and dialogue: There is a need to encourage dialogues and exchanges between Israeli and Palestinian civil society groups, academics, and youth to promote mutual understanding and trust. India must continue to act as a mediator influence to encourage both Israel and Palestine to return to the negotiating table.

THE CONCLUSION:

The support to Israel and the UN resolution vote by India signifies how the India-Israel relationship has shifted. However, the Israel-Palestine crisis is influencing domestic identity politics, which tends to create division in national politics. There is a need to have a delicate balance between its historical support for Palestine and its growing relationship with Israel.

PREVIOUS YEAR QUESTIONS

Q.1 “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled ” Discuss. (2018)

Q.2 Too little cash, too much politics, leave UNESCO fighting for life.’ Discuss the statement in the light of the US’ withdrawal and its accusation of the cultural body as being ‘anti-Israel bias’.(2019)

MAINS PRACTICE QUESTIONS

Q.1 India’s diplomatic stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict has evolved over the years. Discuss.

Refer to the main focus article for more on the news:

Source:https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/editorials/on-israel-palestine-indias-domestic-identity-politics-must-not-drive-approach-9011131/#:~:text=out%20of%20detention-,The%20complex%20legacy%20of%20strife%20and%20violence%20in%20Palestine%20should,%2C%20moral%2C%20political%20and%20material

A WAR THAT ENDS THE SAUDI-ISRAEL ‘NORMALISATION’ PROCESS

THE CONTEXT: Recently, Hamas launched its lethal attacks on Israel; the assault has blown the efforts of the US and Israel to promote normalization of relations with Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia.

MORE ON THE NEWS:

Recently, Israeli Prime Minister showcased maps at the United Nations General Assembly.
One map depicted an isolated Israel in 1948, while the other showed Arab neighbours that now had peace agreements with Israel, Egypt, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Jordan. It also showed all the occupied Palestinian territories, the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, as integral parts of Israel.
He specifically praised the normalization process with Saudi Arabia and emphasized that the Palestinians should not have veto power over this process.

WHAT IS SAUDI-ISRAEL NORMALISATION?

Saudi Arabia has been a big proponent of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. The initiative includes the establishment of a Palestinian state and a solution for Palestine refugees for the normalisation process with Israel. Saudi demands for Israel withdrawal from Palestinian territory and Syria’s Golan Heights.
The process of normalization has been on the Saudi table since 2020. The normalization process is a US-backed diplomacy where diplomatic activities between the USA, Israel, and Saudi Arabia have even stated broad contours of the agreement.
Negotiations between Israel, Saudi Arabia and USA even pushed for the deadline to be completed within 2023.

Condition of Saudi for normalization:

S. approval for a civilian nuclear programme that provides for uranium enrichment within the country
Israeli commitment to a process leading to a two-state solution with the Palestinians
An “iron-clad” U.S. security guarantee for the country like to be included in North Atlantic Treaty Organization
Sales of advanced weapons ‘

Israel stand:

Israel stand is still optimistic expecting a deal to be reached soon, and by bridging the gap, there is a chance that in the first quarter of 2024, details of the deal will be finalized.
It is not objecting to Saudi Arabia’s desire to build a nuclear programme as far as it is for civilian nuclear programme for energy requirements.
However, Israel has rejected concessions to the Palestinian Authority (PA) government as part of normalising relations, including a settlement freeze in the occupied West Bank.

Palestinian stand:

Palestine has put its own set of conditions in exchange for Saudi Arabia normalising ties with Israel.

Reopening of the US consulate in occupied East Jerusalem, which former US President Donald Trump closed in 2019.
Asked the US to back full Palestinian representation at the United Nations.
Asked Israel to give the Palestine Authorities more control over some parts of the occupied West Bank and getting rid of illegal Israeli outposts.

Iran stand:

Iranian President has warned Saudi Arabia against making any deal with Israel by making a statement that any such deal would be a “stab in the back of the Palestinian people and their resistance”.

ISSUES:

Palestine issue not recognised: Palestine issue was not taken into regard during the normalization discussion of Israel and Saudi Arabia.
US opposing nuclear programme: There are concerns regarding Saudi developing its own nuclear programme, considering that it poses an unacceptable proliferation risk.
Challenges for US in Israel: PM of Israel heads an extreme right-wing coalition determined to accelerate the Jewish settlements in the Occupied West Bank and curb the judiciary’s independence which is against US principles as USA is a democratic country.
Saudi condemn of Israel: Saudi has repeatedly called out Israel for deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights and the repetition of systematic provocations of its sanctities.
US not agreeing to Saudi’s condition: There are also obstacles to the U.S. sales of advanced weapons, largely due to Saudi Arabia’s poor human rights record at home and in Yemen.

IMPACT DUE TO GAZAH WAR:

Impact on Palestine: The Gazah war has once again brought the Palestine issue to the forefront and at the centre of West Asian politics, and Saudi recognized the necessity of addressing the Palestine issue. Saudi Arabia has recognised that peace and stability in the region are not possible without Palestinian interests being addressed.
Impact on Saudi-Israel negotiation process: Saudi criticized Israel’s action, which can have an impact on the rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Blame on Iran: Some are blaming Iran, arguing that the Islamic Republic has instigated the Hamas attacks to block Saudi Arabia’s normalisation initiative with Israel. This argument has little credibility as Saudi-Iran ties have already been normalised under Chinese mediation.
Impact wide areas: The global fallout from such a development would be quite profound. The Islamic mainstream would likely follow the Saudi lead. It would further marginalize the “Palestinians’ Cause” and may polarize and radicalize along with other opponents of Israel such as Iran and Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Islamic State.

THE WAY FORWARD:

Concrete action for Palestine: There is a need to have concrete action to serve Palestine’s interests, and the international community must act now to activate a credible peace plan that enables a two-state solution.
Faster normalization process: There is a need to act up on the faster normalization process between Israel and Saudi Arabia to bring peace and stability in the region and deepen ties between both the countries.
Saudi can act as mediator: Saudi can act as mediator for the peace in the region. It will help in diplomatic ties with Israel that would balance the Saudi’s recent reconciliation with Iran and Syria. It helps it emerge as a more nationalist power than an Islamic one.

THE CONCLUSION: Gaza attack can have profound consequences for regional geopolitics and can cause a delay in the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Promoting the Palestinian cause will now form an important part of this foreign policy approach.

PREVIOUS YEAR QUESTIONS

Q.1 “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (2018)

Q.2 ‘Too little cash, too much politics, leave UNESCO fighting for life.’ Discuss the statement in the light of the US’ withdrawal and its accusation of the cultural body as being ‘anti-Israel bias’.(2019)

MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION

Comment on the impact of Israel-Palestine conflict on the Israel-Saudi Arabia normalization process.

NOTE: Please refer to Mains Focus article of ‘Toofan al-aqsa jolts west asian geostrategic Architecture’ for more on the news.

SOURCE: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/a-war-that-ends-the-saudi-israel-normalisation-process/article67417900.ece

TOOFAN AL-AQSA JOLTS WEST ASIAN GEOSTRATEGIC ARCHITECTURE

CONTEXT: Recently, the Hamas operation, Toofan Al-Aqsa has escalated violence between Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group, and Israel. In this context it needs to be seen as what impact it can have on West Asian geostrategic architecture.

WHAT CASUSES THE WAR?

Weak government: The current Israel’s ultra nationalist government is seen as inefficient to security challenges. Even before Toofan Al-Aqsa, Jerusalem’s hard-line has led to a surge in violence with over 200 Palestinians and 30 Israelis dead this year.
International backing: Hamas attacks are seen to be backed by countries as Iran and Qatar which are engaging, funding and patronizing several islamist groups including Hamas.
Response to violence at al Aqsa Mosque: Hamas has referred to the attack as a response to military raids of Israel in the West Bank and violence at al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.

HISTORY OF ISRAEL PALESTINE CONFLICT

In World War I, after the Ottoman Empire fell, Palestine which had a population divided between Arab majority and Jewish minority, went under the control of Britain.
Britain was given the task of creating a Jewish homeland in Palestine by the international community, which led to increased tensions between Arabs and Jews.
The demand for a Jewish homeland emerged as part of an ethno-nationalist movement called Zionism which started in the late 19th century and aimed at creating a homeland for the Jews in Palestine.
In the wake of World War II and the Nazi Holocaust of Jewish people, the demand for a Jewish nation increased and it gained the support of the people.
Many Jews fled Europe to save themselves from persecution, and Palestine saw a sudden influx of Jewish immigrants in the 1920s and 1940s.
As tensions escalated between Arabs and Jews, the resistance to the British regime intensified further.
The United Nations adopted a partition plan in 1947, according to which Palestine was to be divided into separate Jewish and Arab states and Jerusalem was to remain under international administration.
The plan was accepted by the Jewish leadership, however, the Arabs rejected it and it was never implemented.
Immediately after the partition plan was adopted, a war broke out between Arabs and Zionist settlers who were entering Palestine.
The founding of Israel was proclaimed by the Jewish leaders, with the support of the British authorities and the United Nations, in 1948. The war saw intervention by neighbouring Arab countries with military force.
In 1949, the first Arab-Israeli War ended with the victory of Israel and 750,000 Palestinians were reportedly displaced, which they called Al Nakba, or “The Catastrophe”.
The territory was divided into three parts – the Arab West Bank, the Gaza Strip and the Jewish Israel. To date, the conflict remains unresolved.

WHAT IS HAMAS?

Hamas is a Palestinian militant group which rules the Gaza Strip. It is designated as a terrorist group by Israel and western world. It is backed by Iran and Turkey with material and financial support.
Its rival party is Fatah which dominates the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and rules in the West Bank.
It aims to replace Israel with an Islamic state. Hamas has fought several wars with Israel since it took power in Gaza in 2007.
It is known for the launch of 19-day Yom Kippur War 50 years ago which led to a regional tectonic shift with Israel accepting a ‘land for peace’ formula at the Camp David Accords six years later.

IMPACT ON WEST ASIAN GEOSTRATEGIC ARCHITECTURE

Can affect Israel domestic policies: As the crisis shows the security challenges faced by the Israeli government, some power shifts are expected. The crisis is also likely to deter the national unity.
Conflict within Palestine: Palestine authority is itself vertically split between the West Bank run by al-Fatah with Israeli occupation in a modus vivendi with Israeli occupation authorities, and Gaza administered by Hamas, which refuses to recognise Israel. Al Fatah too has condemned the Hamas over violence which can intensify conflict within Palestine.
Can boost non-state Arab militia: This conflict could potentially revive and further boost the standing of non-state Arab militias, such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, al-Houthis, Islamic State, various avatars of al-Qaeda, and Al-Shabaab.
Delay in rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia: Israel would be unwilling to grant the concessions to the Palestinians sought by Riyadh. This can have profound consequences for regional geopolitics and can cause a delay in the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Regional condemnation: Only Arab neighbour of Gaza is Egypt who does not support Gazan rulers. Also, all the Gulf monarchies, except Qatar, strongly disapprove of Hamas, calling it a political Islamic outfit. Also, though Qatar provides humanitarian assistance but it too has limited its aid due to its relation with USA. Also, Turkey supports Hamas but it itself is facing financial issues. Similarly, Damascus is also not supportive of Hamas despite having reconciled in 2022.
Iran’s stand: Iran has long been a mentor of the Hamas group and has tried to replicate its success in creating a Hezbollah-type proto-state in Gaza to threaten Israel. Also, pro-Iranian regional outfits like al-Houthis could support the Gazans.

IMPACT FOR INDIA:

While India is not directly affected by Toofan Al-Aqsa, it would nevertheless feel some effect.
The regional turbulence could cause collateral damage through an oil price rise, impact our diaspora, and dim the prospects for India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and other I2U2 constructs.
It can also highlight India as a safe, fast-growing economy for foreign investments, largely insulated from the turmoil.

THE WAY FORWARD

Peaceful solution: As revenge only increases violence and lead to severe human and material damage. It is the need of hour to have peaceful solution in the region. The democratization of the Palestinian society through which new credible leadership can be one of the solution.
Revisit of strategy: Despite hi-tech missile defence and Artificial Intelligence Israel failed to avoid such attack. This indicates Israel to revise its strategic doctrines.
Two state solution: The most optimum solution is a “two-state solution” that would establish Palestine as an independent state in Gaza and most of the West Bank, leaving the rest of the land to Israel. Both sides need to make it work in practice.
Global solution: The need of the hour is to treat this conflict of the regional area rather than conflict between two countries. All the stakeholder countries should participate in the negotiations and act on final agreement.

THE CONCLUSION: It can be concluded that the current crisis will not last long however, it will add on the existing issue and may remain as an disputed and unresolved issue. In this regard, nations and international organizations along with other stakeholders should find a long lasting peaceful solution.

PREVIOUS YEAR QUESTIONS

Q.1 “India’s relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.” Discuss. (2018)

MAINS PRACTICE QUESTIONS

Q.1 The recent attack of Hamas on Israel has raised international concern. There is an immediate need for peaceful resolution but that can happen only through talks and not through bloodshed. Discuss the possible solutions in this regard.

Q.2 Discuss the recent Israel Palestine conflict and the impact that it has created in the region and beyond. Also, comment on India’s position on this conflict.

SOURCE: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/what-the-attacks-by-hamas-mean-for-israel-and-prime-minister-netanyahu-8973802/