THE CONTEXT: India’s development trajectory is confronting an intensifying “climate drag.” The World Bank now estimates that more than 80 percent of Indians live in districts exposed to at least one climate-induced disaster risk. Without systemic anticipation, these hazards threaten to derail the Viksit Bharat ambition and the macro-stability gains of the last decade.
UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE PHYSICAL RISKS:
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- Climate physical risks (CPRs), as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), encompass acute hazards (e.g., floods, cyclones, heatwaves) and chronic stresses (e.g., shifting monsoon patterns, prolonged droughts, sea-level rise). The IPCC framework posits that CPR is a function of three components:
1. Hazard: The likelihood and intensity of climate-related events.
2. Exposure: The populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems at risk.
3. Vulnerability: The capacity of systems to withstand and recover from these events.
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- In India, CPRs manifest as erratic monsoons that disrupt agriculture, heatwaves causing public health crises, and coastal flooding that threatens urban centers like Mumbai and Chennai. For instance, the 2023 monsoon floods in Assam displaced over 1.5 million people, while heatwaves in central India resulted in significant crop losses, underscoring the systemic nature of these risks.
CURRENT SCENARIO: INDIA’S VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE PHYSICAL RISKS
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- India’s diverse geography and socio-economic disparities amplify its exposure to CPRs. According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), 68% of India’s land is prone to drought, 60% to earthquakes, 12% to floods, and 8% to cyclones. The economic toll is staggering. The Asian Development Bank estimates that climate change could reduce India’s GDP by up to 10% by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario. Key sectors affected include:
- Agriculture: Erratic monsoons and rising temperatures threaten 60% of India’s rain-fed agriculture, impacting food security for 1.4 billion people.
- Public Health: Heatwaves and vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, are on the rise, with a 2023 study by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) linking climate change to increased mortality rates.
- Infrastructure: Urban centers face flooding risks, with Mumbai’s 2021 floods causing damages worth ₹700 crore.
- Despite advancements in early warning systems, such as the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) cyclone alerts, India’s approach to CPR assessment remains fragmented. Studies like IIT Gandhinagar’s flood maps and NDMA’s vulnerability atlases exist, but the lack of a centralized, standardized data repository hinders effective decision-making.
POLICY FRAMEWORK IN INDIA:
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- National Adaptation Plan (NAP): Under Article 7 of the Paris Agreement, India submitted its first Adaptation Communication in 2023, outlining strategies across nine thematic sectors, including agriculture, water, and urban planning. A comprehensive NAP, with district-level granularity, is under development for 2025.
- National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC): Launched in 2008, it comprises eight missions, such as the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture and the National Water Mission, aimed at enhancing resilience.
- Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Programs like the Smart Cities Mission and Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT) integrate climate considerations into urban planning.
- Financial Regulations: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is incorporating climate risks into its regulatory framework, mandating banks to assess CPRs in lending decisions.
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE:
Globally, adaptation is gaining traction as a universal necessity, with developed nations like the U.S., U.K., and New Zealand implementing robust CPR frameworks. For instance:
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- United States: The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) maintains a National Risk Index, integrating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data to guide policy.
- United Kingdom: The Climate Change Committee (CCC) provides biennial risk assessments, informing infrastructure investments and urban planning.
- New Zealand: The National Adaptation Plan includes mandatory climate risk disclosures for businesses, ensuring financial stability.
THE CHALLENGES:
| Challenge | Core Argument |
|---|---|
| Fragmented Climate-Risk Intelligence | India lacks a single geospatial spine that fuses hazard, exposure and vulnerability layers; ministries still work with siloed datasets. |
| Hyper-Local Modelling Deficit | Downscaled Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) outputs (e.g., CORDEX-South Asia, 25 km grid) miss India’s sharp orographic gradients, skewing river-basin and irrigation planning. |
| Adaptation-Finance Choke Point | The National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC) has sanctioned just ₹847 cr across 27 States since 2015—0.02 % of GDP; contrast UNEP’s estimate that India needs US $55–100 bn annually by 2030. 15th Finance Commission shifted focus to post-disaster grants and left proactive adaptation largely unfunded. |
| Regulatory Blind Spots | No statute obliges banks, municipal bonds or PPPs to conduct CPR stress-tests. RBI’s draft disclosure framework (Feb 2024) is still consultative; first phased reporting begins only FY 2026. Meanwhile, Indore’s green municipal bond (2023) raised ₹244 cr without a climate-hazard due-diligence clause—highlighting systemic under-pricing of risk. |
| Institutional Silos & Capacity Gaps | Overlapping mandates—MoEFCC (adaptation policy), NDMA (disaster-response), MoHUA (urban resilience)—create accountability diffusion. District Disaster Management Authorities rarely employ climate modellers; CAG’s 2022 performance audit found <15 % of DDMA posts on risk analysis filled. |
| Social & Gendered Vulnerability | Heat-waves disproportionately affect women in the informal economy who lack adaptive assets. Ahmedabad’s textile home-workers faced a 30 % income drop during the May 2024 heat dome; Time documents higher female heat-morbidity. |
| Justice & Constitutional Underdetermination | Supreme Court has expanded Article 21 to a clean environment (M.C. Mehta line of cases) but no explicit right to climate adaptation exists. The Court’s 2023 In re Cyclone Mandous Migrant Petition declined to frame enforceable adaptation duties, citing policy domain. |
| Behavioural & Risk-Communication Gap | Only 24 of 100 urban Heat Action Plans (HAPs) meet NDMA’s minimum public-awareness benchmarks; many lack multilingual advisories. Ahmedabad HAP cut heat-related excess mortality by >30 % in 2014-15 through targeted SMS alerts and hydration booths. |
| Insurance & Risk-Transfer Deficit | Parametric cover for floods/heat is nascent; PM-Fasal Bima Yojana focuses on crop yields, not multi-hazard asset loss. In Kerala Floods 2018, less than 5 % of ₹31,000 cr losses were insured, pushing the burden onto state borrowings and household savings. |
| Science-Policy Translation Lag | High-resolution forecasts (<48 h) generated by IMD’s Doppler network are not auto-embedded into smart-city command centres; the 2023 Ludhiana flood caused ₹900 cr damage despite a 12-hour red alert, revealing the “last-mile digital divide.” |
THE WAY FORWARD:
Developing a National CPR Assessment Tool:
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- Establish a centralized climate risk data hub under the MoEFCC, integrating data from IMD, NDMA, and academic institutions.
- Leverage Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for hyper-local climate modeling, capturing regional variations like Himalayan glacier melt or coastal erosion.
- Example: The Netherlands’ Delta Programme uses AI-driven flood risk models to guide infrastructure investments.
Strengthening Governance Mechanisms:
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- Create an inter-ministerial task force to streamline NAP implementation, ensuring coordination between central and state agencies.
- Mandate climate risk disclosures for businesses, aligned with the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) ISSB S2, to enhance financial stability.
- Case Study: Gujarat’s Climate Change Department, established in 2009, serves as a model for state-level coordination.
Scaling Up Adaptation Finance:
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- Redirect a portion of India’s $100 billion annual infrastructure budget towards climate-resilient projects, such as flood-resistant roads and heat-proof urban designs.
- Advocate for increased global adaptation finance at COP30 (2025), emphasizing loss and damage funding for vulnerable nations.
- Example: Bangladesh’s Delta Plan 2100 allocates $37 billion for flood management, offering a blueprint for India.
Community-Centric Adaptation:
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- Empower local communities through participatory risk assessments and climate literacy programs, as demonstrated by Kerala’s People’s Campaign for Climate Resilience.
- Promote nature-based solutions, such as mangrove restoration in the Sundarbans, which mitigate floods and support livelihoods.
- Case Study: Odisha’s community-driven cyclone shelters reduced mortality during Cyclone Phailin (2013) by 90%.
Innovative Technologies:
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- Deploy early warning systems powered by Internet of Things (IoT) devices for real-time monitoring of floods and heatwaves.
- Invest in climate-smart agriculture, such as drought-resistant seeds and precision irrigation, to enhance food security.
- Example: Tamil Nadu’s Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) use IoT-based soil sensors to optimize water use.
Capacity Building:
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- Train district-level officials in climate risk assessment and adaptation planning, leveraging platforms like the National Institute of Urban Affairs (NIUA).
- Foster public-private partnerships to bridge technical and financial gaps, as seen in Maharashtra’s partnership with the World Bank for climate-resilient infrastructure.
THE CONCLUSION:
Economic growth without climate foresight is a false dividend. A future-proof India requires mainstreaming climate physical risk into every budget line, credit appraisal and infrastructure blueprint. Proactive adaptation is no longer an environmental luxury; it is the sine qua non of macro-economic stability and human development.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Q. Flooding in urban areas is an emerging climate-induced disaster. Discuss the causes of this disaster. Mention the features of two such major floods in the last two decades in India. Describe the policies and frameworks in India that aim at tackling such floods. 2024
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q. India’s vulnerability to climate physical risks is less a function of geography and more a function of governance. Elucidate
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