THE CONTEXT: The Russian invasion of Ukraine, ongoing since February 24, 2022, has seen Moscow control 19% of Ukrainian territory by March 2025, including Donetsk, Luhansk, and parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Recent US-Russia talks in Riyadh (February 2025) aimed at ceasefire terms and sanctions relief have stalled over territorial disputes and security guarantees, while reduced US military support weakens Ukraine’s counteroffensive capabilities.
GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT OF THE CRISIS:
US-Russia Power Dynamics:
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- The Trump-Zelenskyy confrontation reflects shifting US foreign policy priorities, with transactional diplomacy undermining traditional alliances.
- Russia’s 2022 invasion marked the first full-scale territorial conquest attempt since WWII, challenging the post-1945 norm against annexation of sovereign states.
NATO Expansion Debate:
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- While US/Russian hegemonic ambitions contributed to tensions, Russia’s invasion lacked legal/moral justification (casus belli), making it a watershed moment in international law.
NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
1994 Budapest Memorandum
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- Ukraine relinquished the world’s 3rd-largest nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the US, and the UK.
- The invasion exposed the failure of these guarantees, eroding trust in non-proliferation treaties.
Implications for Global Nuclear Order
| Factor | Impact |
| Security Guarantees |
Small states may pursue nuclear arms as deterrence (e.g., Iran, Saudi Arabia). |
| Proliferation Risks |
Emergence of new nuclear states (e.g., South Korea, Japan) could destabilize regional balances. |
RESURGENCE OF TERRITORIAL IMPERIALISM
1. Post-1945 Norms in Crisis
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- Pre-1945: 150+ territorial wars; Post-1945: Sharp decline due to UN Charter’s Article 2(4).
- Recent violations (Crimea 2014, Ukraine 2022, Gaza 2023) signal regression to pre-WWII power politics.
2. US Role in Legitimizing Imperialism
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- Trump’s transactional approach (“leverage”) and humiliation of Ukraine embolden authoritarian regimes to use force.
- Contrast with treatment of nuclear-armed states (North Korea, Pakistan) highlights double standards.
Broader Implications for International Security
1. Erosion of Deterrence Stability
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- Fragility of US-Russia nuclear dyad compounded by emerging technologies (hypersonic missiles, AI-driven systems).
2. Multipolarity and Alliance Shifts
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- European peace plans aligning with Trump’s stance suggest declining US hegemony.
- Non-aligned states (e.g., India) face complex choices balancing Russia-West tensions.
THE WAY FORWARD:
1. Legally Binding Security Assurances with Economic Incentives
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- Adopt the Negative Security Assurance (NSA) Framework proposed by Arms Control Association (2022): Link NSAs to economic partnerships (e.g., EU’s 2025 “Strategic Autonomy and Energy Security” plans tie gas imports to NSA compliance).
- Marshall Islands’ 2014 lawsuit against nuclear states under NPT Article VI highlights legal gaps; treaties should be revised to allow non-nuclear states to sue violators in the ICJ.
- Use sanctions relief as a carrot (e.g., Iran 2015 JCPOA model) for states adhering to non-proliferation, while imposing costs via mechanisms like the EU’s 2025 “Global Gateway” infrastructure fund.
2. Hybrid Tribunals for Territorial Aggression
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- Establish UNGA-mandated hybrid tribunals (proposed in SDSU’s 2022 analysis), bypassing UNSC veto. Use the 1950 “Uniting for Peace” Resolution (A/RES/377) as precedent.
- ICJ’s 1986 Nicaragua v. United States ruling on “armed attack” definitions; apply to classify territorial annexation as aggression.
- Create a Special Tribunal for Ukraine (STU) under UNGA Resolution ES-11/1 (2022), funded via frozen Russian assets.
3. “Digital Peacekeeping” for Emerging Tech Governance
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- Adopt Opinio Juris’ 2025 recommendation to develop a Global AI Arms Control Treaty under IAEA oversight, mandating algorithmic transparency for autonomous weapons.
- NATO’s 2024 “Responsible AI in Military” (REAIM) summit outcomes; integrate into EU’s 2025 “Defense and Security Initiatives”.
- Use blockchain to monitor real-time dual-use tech exports (e.g., NSG’s 2023 pilot with Australian uranium shipments).
4. Resource-Based Deterrence for Small States
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- Leverage critical mineral reserves (e.g., African cobalt, Chilean lithium) as bargaining chips. Adopt the 2025 EU Critical Raw Materials Act model, offering resource access in exchange for NSA compliance.
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- Namibia’s 2024 deal with EU—uranium supplies conditional on NSA adherence—mirrors the NPT’s “peaceful use” pillar.
- 70% of rare earth minerals are in Global South; a “Resources for Security” coalition could counterbalance China’s Belt and Road.
5. Global South Diplomatic Coalitions:
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- Expand BRICS+into a “Security Caucus” using India’s 2023 G20 model (African Union inclusion) to draft a Non-Aligned NPT Amendment (NANA) for equitable disarmament.
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- ASEAN’s 2024 consensus on South China Sea Code of Conduct; replicate for conflict mediation in Global South hotspots.
- Innovation: Create a UN Trust Fund for Reparations (funded by aggressor states) managed by Global South states, as proposed in UNGA’s 2022 ES-11/5.
6. Climate-Conflict Nexus Penalties:
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- Amend ICC’s Rome Statute (Article 8(2)(b)(iv)) to classify ecocideas a war crime, using the EU’s 2025 “Oceans Pact” as precedent.
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- 60% of conflicts since 2000 linked to resource scarcity (UNEP 2023); impose climate reparations via COP28 Loss and Damage Fund.
- ICJ’s 2024 Vanuatu v. Fossil Fuel Exporters advisory opinion on climate liability; apply to sanction states using energy as coercion.
THE CONCLUSION:
To restore faith in international order post-Ukraine crisis, nations must pioneer a new global security architecture anchored in enforceable trust-based treaties and equitable resource diplomacy, as exemplified by Namibia-EU uranium accords (2024) and ASEAN’s South China Sea consensus (2024). Embracing innovative frameworks like hybrid tribunals under UNGA’s ‘Uniting for Peace’ Resolution and blockchain-enabled transparency mechanisms will decisively deter imperial aggression, ensuring lasting peace rooted in moral legitimacy and mutual respect.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Q. Russia and Ukraine war has been going on for the last seven months. Different countries have taken independent stands and actions keeping in view their own national interests. We are all aware that war has its own impact on the different aspects of society, including human tragedy. What are those ethical issues that are crucial to be considered while launching the war and its continuation so far? Illustrate with justification the ethical issues involved in the given state of affair. 2022
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q. The Ukraine conflict (2022–2025) has exposed systemic flaws in the international security architecture, particularly the collapse of trust in nuclear disarmament and the resurgence of territorial imperialism. In this context, critically analyze the implications for global nuclear non-proliferation norms.
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