THE CONTEXT: The global fight against climate change has intensified, with the world recognizing the urgent need to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. In this context, India’s role is crucial, being the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases. However, India’s unique position as a developing country with significant energy needs for growth presents a complex challenge.
THE IMMEDIATE DRIVERS:
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- Importance of COP29 vs. U.S. Presidential Election: While international climate conferences like COP29 are essential, domestic policies of major emitters like the U.S. can have more immediate impacts. The outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election could significantly influence global climate action.
- Global cooperation challenges: The principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) underscores the need for developed countries to take the lead in emissions reduction and support developing nations.
- Developed vs. developing countries’ perspectives: India’s per capita emissions remain low compared to developed nations, highlighting the equity issue in climate action.
NET-ZERO EMISSIONS: THE IMPERATIVE
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- Scientific consensus on 1.5°C temperature rise limit: The IPCC has emphasized the critical need to limit global warming to 1.5°C to avoid catastrophic consequences.
- Global carbon budget and emission reduction needs: The remaining global carbon budget for a 50-67% chance of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C is estimated at 400-500 billion tonnes of CO22.
- Equity issues in net-zero targets: Developed countries are expected to reach net-zero well before 2050, allowing developing nations more time to balance growth with climate action.
INDIA’S CLIMATE ACTION JOURNEY:
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- India’s 2070 net-zero commitment: At COP26, India pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070, a significant step for a developing nation.
- Per capita emissions and inequality: While India’s overall emissions are high, its per capita emissions remain among the lowest globally. However, the country has significant disparity, with the richest 10% emitting 20 times more than the poorest 10%.
- Challenges unique to India’s size and diversity: India’s diverse geography and socio-economic conditions necessitate a multifaceted approach to climate action.
BALANCING DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE GOALS:
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- Power demand projections for 2070: If consumption rises unchecked, India’s power demand could increase nine to tenfold by 2070.
- Renewable energy targets and land-use challenges: Meeting energy demands entirely through renewables would require over 5,500 GW of solar and 1,500 GW of wind capacity, presenting significant land-use challenges.
- Quality of life vs. climate adaptation and mitigation: India faces the complex task of improving living standards while adhering to climate goals.
RETHINKING DEVELOPMENT MODELS:
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- Limitations of the environmental Kuznets curve: The hypothesis that economic growth can be decoupled from carbon emissions beyond a certain threshold has not been realized even in the wealthiest countries.
- Concept of ‘sufficiency consumption corridors’: India must balance meeting developmental goals and avoiding unsustainable growth.
- Importance of demand-side measures: Focusing on demand reduction and efficiency is crucial for sustainable development.
STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH:
Demand-side measures:
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- Energy-efficient construction and appliances: Implementing passive design elements and promoting energy-efficient appliances.
- Sustainable transportation: Emphasizing public and non-motorized transport.
- Local product consumption: Reducing long-haul freight demand.
- Dietary choices: Promoting sustainable food habits.
- Alternative fuels in industries: Transitioning to cleaner energy sources.
Supply-side measures:
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- Decentralized energy production: Expanding rooftop solar and solar pumps for agriculture.
- Nuclear power expansion: Diversifying the energy mix with low-carbon baseload power.
- Diversification of energy mix: Balancing renewables, nuclear, and other clean energy sources.
STATE OF IMPLEMENTATION:
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- Policy framework: India has introduced several policies and initiatives, including the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) and sector-specific missions.
- International cooperation: India actively participates in global initiatives like the International Solar Alliance and Global Biofuel Alliance.
- Financial constraints: Significant investment is required to transition to clean energy and sustainable practices.
- Technological challenges: Many technologies required for net-zero, such as green hydrogen production and carbon capture, are still in development or not commercially viable.
- Balancing energy security and climate goals: India continues to rely on coal for energy security while pushing for renewable expansion.
THE FUTURE OUTLOOK:
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- Emissions reduction projections: Current policies are expected to reduce CO2 emissions by around 4 billion tonnes between 2020 and 2030.
- Renewable energy growth: Solar and wind power’s share is projected to rise to 26% by 2030 and 43% by 2050.
- Electric vehicle adoption: By 2030, electric two-wheeler and four-wheeler sales could account for 19% and 11% of their respective segments.
- Green hydrogen initiatives: India has set ambitious targets for green hydrogen production, though challenges remain regarding cost and infrastructure.
THE CONCLUSION:
India’s path to net-zero emissions by 2070 is ambitious and challenging. It requires a delicate balance between development needs, climate action, innovative policies, significant investments, and international support. While progress is being made, accelerated efforts and global cooperation will be crucial to achieve this monumental goal.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Describe the major outcomes of the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). What are India’s commitments at this conference?
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Critically examine the role of demand-side measures in India’s strategy to combat climate change. How do these measures complement supply-side initiatives in the pursuit of net-zero emissions?
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