THE CONTEXT: Hurricane Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida, as an extremely dangerous Category 3 hurricane, bringing intense rainfall, flooding, tornadoes, storm surge, and strong winds to the region. The storm’s unusual characteristics and rapid intensification made it a noteworthy and destructive event.
UNUSUAL CHARACTERISTICS OF MILTON
- Rapid Intensification: Milton underwent an extraordinary rapid intensification, exploding from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane in just 12 hours between October 6 and 712. The storm’s maximum sustained winds increased by more than 145 kmph in a day, far exceeding the criteria for extremely rapid intensification.
- Path and Landfall Location: Milton’s trajectory was highly unusual. It formed in the Gulf of Mexico, moved eastward, and landed on Florida’s western coast45. This path is scarce for a hurricane of Milton’s intensity.
- Formation in the Gulf of Mexico: The storm’s formation and subsequent eastward movement towards Florida’s west coast was unprecedented for a hurricane of its strength.
FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO MILTON’S INTENSITY
- Sea-Surface Temperatures: Exceptionally high sea-surface temperatures in the western Gulf of Mexico, reaching nearly 31°C, played a crucial role in Milton’s rapid intensification124. These temperatures were well above the 26°C threshold needed for hurricane development.
- Atmospheric Humidity: High atmospheric humidity contributed to Milton’s severity. The increased atmospheric moisture levels made the storm more dangerous, leading to higher precipitation intensity and duration.
- Lack of Wind Shear: The absence of strong wind shear allowed Milton to maintain its structure and intensity as it approached Florida. This lack of disruptive winds enabled the hurricane to utilize available energy efficiently.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND HURRICANES:
- Increasing Ocean Temperatures: Global mean sea surface temperature has risen by about 0.9°C since 1850, with 0.6°C of that warming occurring in the last 40 years. When Hurricane Milton intensified, the Gulf of Mexico reached nearly 31°C, well above the 26°C threshold needed for hurricane development. Warmer oceans provide more heat energy for hurricanes to intensify rapidly.
- Moisture Content in the Atmosphere: For every 1°C increase in temperature, the atmosphere can hold 7% more moisture. Increased atmospheric humidity increases precipitation intensity, duration, and frequency during hurricanes. The warmer oceans and increased atmospheric humidity provide more energy to fuel hurricanes.
- Trend of Rapid Intensification: Hurricane Milton underwent extreme rapid intensification, with wind speeds increasing by over 145 km/h in 24 hours. Other recent examples include Hurricanes Otis (2023), Idalia (2023), and Ian (2022). A 2017 study predicted rapid intensification just before landfall would become “increasingly frequent and severe” as the planet warms. The frequency of tropical cyclones undergoing multiple episodes of rapid intensification has increased significantly since the 1980s.
THE WAY FORWARD:
- Improve Hurricane Forecasting and Early Warning Systems: Invest in advanced weather satellites and hurricane hunter aircraft to collect more detailed storm formation and intensification data. Develop better climate models that account for warmer ocean temperatures and increased atmospheric moisture to improve intensity forecasts.
- Strengthen Coastal Infrastructure and Implement Nature-based Solutions: Upgrade building codes to withstand stronger winds and flooding. After Hurricane Andrew, Florida’s improved building codes reduced residential property damage by up to 72% and injuries/deaths by 22%. Implement nature-based solutions like restoring mangroves and coral reefs. Mangroves can reduce wave heights by 66% and storm surge by up to 50 cm per km of forest width.
- Accelerate Climate Change Mitigation Efforts: The IPCC states that emissions must be cut by almost half by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C. Implement carbon pricing mechanisms to incentivize emissions reductions across all sectors of the economy. Increase investment in carbon capture and storage technologies to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
- Enhance Community Preparedness and Resilience: Develop comprehensive evacuation plans for vulnerable populations. During Hurricane Katrina, 71% of deaths were among people aged 60 and older. Implement education programs on hurricane preparedness, following Cuba’s model of making disaster preparedness part of all school curricula.
- Improve Stormwater Management Systems: Upgrade urban drainage systems to handle higher volumes of water. After Hurricane Sandy, New York City invested $1.9 billion in stormwater management improvements. Implement green infrastructure solutions like rain gardens and permeable pavements to reduce runoff and flooding.
THE CONCLUSION:
As climate change continues to fuel more intense and rapidly intensifying hurricanes like Milton, urgent action is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance coastal resilience. A 2023 study found that limiting warming to 1.5°C could reduce the risk of Category 4-5 hurricanes by 20-25% compared to 2°C of warming, highlighting the critical importance of ambitious climate mitigation efforts.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTIONS:
Q.1 What is disaster resilience? How is it determined? Describe various elements of a resilience framework. Also mention the global targets of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). 2024
Q.2 What is a twister? Why are the majority of twisters observed in areas around the Gulf of Mexico? 2024
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q.1 Discuss the unusual characteristics of Hurricane Milton and explain how climate change is influencing the behavior of such storms.
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