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THE CONTEXT: Two years after India’s initial stance that “Europe’s problems are not the world’s problems,” there are growing indications that New Delhi is taking a more active role in addressing the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent diplomatic activities, point towards India’s increased engagement in the matter.
INDIA’S DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS:
- Prime Minister Modi’s Visits: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made visits to both Moscow and Kyiv. These visits demonstrate India’s commitment to engaging with both sides of the conflict directly. Prime Minister Modi has taken steps to keep key international players informed of India’s diplomatic efforts:
- He “briefed” United States President Joseph Biden in a phone call after his visit to Ukraine.
- NSA Ajit Doval informed Russian President Vladimir Putin that he had been tasked to “brief” him about the Ukraine visit during their meeting in St. Petersburg.
- NSA Doval and EAM Jaishankar’s Travels: National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar have also been actively involved in diplomatic efforts related to the conflict. Their travels indicate India’s multi-pronged approach to addressing the situation, engaging at various levels of government.
INDIA’S ADVANTAGES AS A POTENTIAL MEDIATOR:
- Engagement with Both Sides of the Conflict: India is uniquely positioned as one of the few countries engaging with both sides of the geopolitical divide over Ukraine. It maintains open channels of communication with the West as well as the Eurasian leadership.
- Non-alignment and Strategic Autonomy Principles: India’s long-standing commitment to non-alignment and strategic autonomy has been largely maintained by the Modi government during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This is demonstrated by India’s abstention votes at the UN and its refusal to accept Western sanctions. These actions have bolstered India’s image as an “honest broker” or potential mediator in the conflict.
- Voice for the Global South: India has established itself as an important representative for the Global South. This position allows India to bring the concerns and perspectives of developing nations to the forefront of discussions about the conflict and its global implications.
- Focus on War Outcomes During G-20 Presidency: During its G-20 presidency, India successfully steered the focus towards the outcomes of the war that matter most to the developing world, such as energy and food security, rather than the war itself.
- Increased Trade with Russia Viewed as Principled Stance: India’s significant increase in Russian oil imports, leading to a six-fold rise in bilateral trade, has been framed as an assertion of its principles rather than mere profiteering. This stance has allowed India to maintain its economic interests while simultaneously positioning itself as a potential mediator in the conflict.
CHALLENGES AND CONSIDERATIONS
- Current state of the war in Ukraine: The conflict remains entrenched, with Russian forces occupying about one-sixth of Ukrainian territory for over two years. Any change in the status quo would likely require a significant escalation of the war. Ukraine is seeking advanced weaponry from Western allies, which Russia views as a potential declaration of direct war between NATO and Russia.
- Existing peace proposals and their rejections: Putin and Zelenskyy have rejected each other’s proposals involving territorial concessions. The Bürgenstock Communiqué, focusing on nuclear safety and humanitarian issues, was rejected by Putin. Ukraine rejected the six-point Brazil-China joint proposal for de-escalation. Hungary’s ceasefire proposal was also rejected by Ukraine.
- Resource allocation and diplomatic focus: Engaging in peace efforts for the Russia-Ukraine conflict would require significant resources. Intensified travel by officials, ministers, and the Prime Minister. Diplomatic goodwill and other resources. Balancing this focus with other pressing domestic and international issues, such as the Manipur conflict, economic development, and regional turbulence
- India faces challenges in maintaining consistency: Justifying intervention in the Russia-Ukraine conflict while other conflicts, such as in Gaza or Sudan, have higher civilian casualties. Reconciling its call for “dialogue and diplomacy” with its own refusal to engage with Pakistan. India needs to develop a more comprehensive vision for peace.
THE WAY FORWARD:
- India’s Potential Roles: India is developing its role as an interlocutor, engaging with all parties involved in the conflict. India can represent the interests of developing nations, focusing on war outcomes such as energy and food security.
- Possibilities of hosting peace summits: India might consider hosting a summit between the two sides, although this role may be left to one of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Following the legacy of its first Prime Minister, India could lead international efforts and UN commissions related to the conflict
- India’s Unique Position: Engage with Western powers through the Quad while maintaining ties with emerging economies through BRICS. Navigate complex geopolitical landscapes by participating in diverse international forums. Leverage its position in both groups to potentially mediate in global conflicts.
THE CONCLUSION:
The government needs to balance its focus on domestic issues and regional concerns with its efforts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. India’s stance on dialogue and diplomacy must be applied consistently across various international conflicts to maintain credibility. The success of India’s intervention may depend on choosing the right moment when parties are more receptive to negotiations
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Q. Russia and Ukraine war has been going on for the last seven months. Different countries have taken independent stands and actions keeping in view their own national interests. We are all aware that war has its own impact on the different aspects of society, including human tragedy. What are those ethical issues that are crucial to be considered while launching the war and its continuation so far? Illustrate with justification the ethical issues involved in the given situation. 2022
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q. Examine India’s potential role as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Discuss the advantages and challenges India faces in this endeavor.
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