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THE CONTEXT: Mission Mausam seeks to significantly upgrade India’s meteorological infrastructure, enhance atmospheric observations, and improve the accuracy of weather predictions. As climate change intensifies and weather patterns become increasingly unpredictable, Mission Mausam represents a critical step towards making India “weather-ready” and “climate-smart.”
THE EVOLUTION OF WEATHER PREDICTION PROGRAMS IN INDIA SINCE INDEPENDENCE:
Post-Independence Era (1947-1970s):
- 1947: India Meteorological Department (IMD) becomes a member of the World Meteorological Organization.
- 1950s-60s: Expansion of observational network and establishing regional meteorological centers.
- 1960: India begins receiving satellite images from TIROS-1, launched by the US.
- 1967: Commencement of drought climatology studies over India.
Modernization Phase (1970s-1990s):
- 1971: Formation of Cyclone Disaster Mitigation Committee.
- 1974: Establishment of 11 Cyclone Detection Radars (CDRs) covering the entire coast.
- 1982: Launch of INSAT series of satellites.
- 1983: Beginning of cyclone monitoring by Indian satellites.
Technological Advancement Era (1990s-2010s):
- 1988: Introduction of supercomputers for weather forecasting.
- 1990s: Adoption of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models.
- 2000s: Expansion of Doppler Weather Radar network.
- 2012: Launch of Monsoon Mission for improved long-range monsoon forecasts.
Recent Developments (2010s-Present)
- 2016: A high-resolution (12 km) global ensemble prediction system is implemented.
- 2021: Introduction of impact-based forecasting and warning services.
- 2023: Approval of Mission Mausam with a budget of ₹2,000 crore.
ABOUT MISSION MAUSAM:
Implementation:
- Nodal Agency: Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).
- Key Implementing Institutions: India Meteorological Department (IMD), National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).
- Timeline: The initial phase will be from 2024 to 2026, with long-term goals extending beyond that.
Objectives:
- Improve the accuracy of weather predictions, especially for monsoons and extreme weather events.
- Enhance air quality forecasting in major cities.
- Develop advanced early warning systems for cyclones and other severe weather.
- Upgrade infrastructure for atmospheric observations.
WEATHER MANAGEMENT IN MISSION MAUSAM:
The weather management component of Mission Mausam focuses on advancing India’s capabilities in weather modification and intervention.
Cloud Chamber and Weather Modification
- Cloud Chamber: A laboratory will be established at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune to simulate cloud environments. This facility will allow scientists to study cloud formation at various altitudes and conduct experiments on cloud seeding to enhance or suppress rainfall.
- Cloud Seeding: The mission explores cloud seeding as a method to manage precipitation. This involves dispersing substances like silver iodide into clouds to encourage condensation and precipitation, potentially increasing rainfall in drought-prone areas or reducing it in regions experiencing excessive rain.
Lightning Control: The mission aims to reduce fatalities caused by lightning, which is a significant cause of natural deaths in India. Research will focus on understanding and potentially modifying the electrical characteristics of clouds to prevent deadly lightning strikes.
Long-term Goals
- Weather Intervention: In the long term, Mission Mausam aims to develop technologies for managing various weather phenomena, including rain suppression during potential flooding events and rain enhancement in drought conditions.
- Research and Development: The insights gained from the cloud chamber experiments are expected to improve the parameterization of weather models, support their indigenization, and enhance forecast accuracy.
INSTRUMENTS INSTALLED AS A PART OF MISSION MAUSAM:
- Wind Profilers: Ground-based radar systems measure wind speed and direction at various altitudes. They provide continuous, real-time data on the vertical profile of the atmosphere.
- Improved Wind Analysis: By offering detailed wind profiles, wind profilers help meteorologists understand atmospheric dynamics, such as jet streams and wind shear, which are critical for predicting storm development and movement.
- Enhanced Forecast Accuracy: Continuous monitoring allows for detecting rapid changes in wind patterns, which can improve short-term forecasts and nowcasting (very short-range forecasting).
- Radiosondes: Radiosondes are small, lightweight devices attached to weather balloons that measure atmospheric parameters like temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind speed as they ascend through the atmosphere.
- Vertical Atmospheric Profiles: Radiosondes provide high-resolution vertical profiles of the atmosphere, essential for understanding temperature inversions, cloud layers, and moisture content.
- Data for NWP Models: Accurate radiosonde data is a critical input for NWP models, improving their ability to simulate and predict weather patterns.
- Detection of Severe Weather Conditions: Radiosonde data helps identify conditions conducive to severe weather events like thunderstorms and cyclones by highlighting temperature inversions and wind shear.
- HIGH-PERFORMANCE SUPERCOMPUTING: It refers to using supercomputers and computer clusters to solve complex computational problems at high speeds. HPC systems aggregate computing power to perform quadrillions of calculations per second, far surpassing the capabilities of traditional computers. It has a utility in the following ways:
- Enhanced Weather Forecasting: HPC is utilized to improve weather forecasting by processing vast amounts of meteorological data quickly and accurately. The mission aims to enhance the resolution of weather models from 12 km to 6 km, which requires an eight-fold increase in computational capacity.
- Real-time Data Processing: HPC systems enable real-time data processing from various sources, such as weather radars, wind profilers, and radiosondes. This capability is essential for generating accurate hourly weather updates instead of three-hour updates.
- WEATHER RADARS: These instruments emit pulses of electromagnetic energy into the atmosphere to detect precipitation and its characteristics. They send out radar beams that reflect off precipitation particles like raindrops or snowflakes. The reflected signals are then analyzed to determine the type, intensity, movement, and location of precipitation.
Expected Outcomes:
- Improvement in weather forecast accuracy by 5-10%.
- Enhancement of air quality prediction in major cities by up to 10%.
- Provision of panchayat-level weather forecasts with 10-15 days lead time.
- Increase in frequency of short-term weather predictions (nowcasts) from every three hours to hourly.
THE CONCLUSION:
As India grapples with the growing challenges posed by climate change and extreme weather events, Mission Mausam is a testament to the country’s commitment to scientific advancement and public safety. The success of this ambitious program could not only enhance India’s resilience to weather-related risks and position the nation as a leader in atmospheric sciences and weather management technologies.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Q. What do you understand by ‘Standard Positioning Systems’ and ‘Protection Positioning Systems’ in the GPS era? Discuss the advantages India perceives from its ambitious IRNSS programme employing just seven satellites. 2015
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q. Mission Mausam represents a significant leap in India’s weather forecasting capabilities. Discuss how it builds upon previous efforts in atmospheric sciences.
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