THE CONTEXT: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Russia, his first since the Ukraine conflict began, underscores India’s commitment to maintaining its strategic autonomy amidst global geopolitical shifts. The visit, marked by substantive discussions with President Vladimir Putin, highlights the nuanced trajectory of India-Russia relations, balancing economic, defense, and diplomatic interests.
THE ISSUES:
- Timing and Context of the Visit: Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Russia comes two years after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, marking a significant shift in India’s approach. Modi had previously avoided visiting Russia during the annual India-Russia summits in 2022 and 2023, indicating a cautious stance. The visit now signals a reassessment of the conflict’s progress and Russia’s current position in the war.
- Geopolitical Signaling: The visit underscores India’s strategic autonomy and desire to maintain a balanced relationship with major global powers. By choosing to visit Moscow and not attending the SCO Summit in Kazakhstan, Modi emphasized the importance of India-Russia ties over a joint appearance with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This move contrasts with Western efforts to isolate Russia and signals India’s intent to keep Russia as a strategic partner amidst ongoing tensions with China.
- Assessment of the Ukraine Conflict: India appears to have concluded that a frozen conflict in Ukraine is the most likely outcome, with Russia holding the status quo in eastern Ukraine. This assessment influences India’s diplomatic stance and decision to resume high-level engagements with Russia. The joint statement’s language, such as referring to the conflict “around Ukraine” and appreciating peace proposals based on international law, subtly aligns with Russian narratives.
- Economic and Trade Relations: The visit also focuses on strengthening economic ties, particularly in the energy sector. India’s imports of discounted Russian oil have significantly boosted bilateral trade, which reached $65 billion in 2023-24. The Modi-Putin summit addressed the need for new payment mechanisms to sustain this trade, given Western sanctions on Russia. The joint vision statement on trade by 2030 highlights the priority of circumventing these sanctions.
- Strategic Investments and Infrastructure: The joint statement emphasizes cooperation in Russia’s Far East and the Arctic, aiming to increase energy supplies and develop mutual investments. The proposed Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor and investments in agriculture, energy, and pharmaceuticals are part of efforts to balance the trade deficit and enhance connectivity.
- Geopolitical and Geo-economic Strategies: India’s approach to the Russia visit reflects broader geopolitical and geo-economic strategies. The visit was about reaffirming bilateral ties and positioning India as a key player in a multipolar world. By maintaining strong ties with Russia, India seeks to leverage its strategic autonomy, diversify its partnerships, and secure its energy needs amidst global uncertainties.
THE WAY FORWARD:
- Enhancing Bilateral Trade and Economic Relations: India-Russia trade saw a 161.22% increase in early 2023-24, driven by discounted crude oil imports. Increase bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030 through diversified exports and local currency trade. India develops a product-level strategy to promote exports, leveraging its competitive advantage in pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and marine products. Using local currencies for trade could help mitigate the impact of Western sanctions and facilitate smoother transactions.
- Strengthening Defense Cooperation: The agreement to manufacture Russian-origin arms and defense equipment in India aims to reduce import dependency and boost self-reliance in defense manufacturing. Set up joint ventures to address the critical defense spare parts shortage and streamline defense cooperation. Localize the production of defense equipment and spare parts through joint ventures under the “Make in India” initiative.
- Promoting Energy and Technological Cooperation: India aims to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070, making Russian cooperation crucial for building additional nuclear plants. Expand cooperation in atomic energy and low-carbon technologies to meet India’s growing energy demands and climate goals. MoUs on climate change and low-carbon technologies can help India develop sustainable energy solutions.
- Maintaining Strategic Autonomy and Balancing Geopolitical Relations: Despite Western criticism, Modi’s visit to Russia underscores India’s commitment to strategic autonomy and balanced approach to international relations. Continue asserting strategic autonomy by balancing relationships with Western countries and Russia. India should aspire to be a pole in a multipolar world, maintaining a balance between the West and Russia.
- Addressing Trade Imbalances and Developing Payment Mechanisms: Develop transparent and open currency exchange platforms to facilitate local currency trade and address trade imbalances. Establishing a multi-currency exchange platform to provide transparent, market-determined exchange rates between local currencies like the Indian and Russian rouble. A multi-currency exchange platform would help banks issue reliable letters of credit and assist businesses in managing currency volatility.
THE CONCLUSION:
Modi’s visit to Russia reaffirms India’s strategic autonomy and balanced international relations approach. By strengthening bilateral ties with Russia while navigating Western scrutiny, India positions itself as a pivotal player in global geopolitics, leveraging its relationships to foster economic growth and regional stability.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Q. What is the significance of Indo-US defense deals or Indo-Russian defense deals? Discuss concerning stability in the Indo-Pacific region. 2020
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q. Considering the geopolitical, economic, and defense dimensions of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, Discuss India’s strategic autonomy and nuanced approach to international relations.
SOURCE:
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-geo-calculus-of-the-moscow-visit/article68446576.ece
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