TAG: GS 3: ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT
THE CONTEXT: A recent report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) highlights alarming projections for global fish stocks if greenhouse gas emissions continue to remain high.
EXPLANATION:
- The report, titled “Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries: Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project,” presents data from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP).
- FishMIP is an international research network focused on the long-term impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries.
Key Projections and Findings
- The report predicts a substantial decline in exploitable fish biomass, ranging from 10 to 30 percent or more by the end of the century, under high-emissions scenarios.
- The potential global warming of 3-4°C under these scenarios is expected to have severe consequences for marine biodiversity and the fisheries sector.
- Exploitable biomass refers to the combined weight of fish accessible to the fishery or venerable capture.
Mid-Century Projections
- High-Emissions Scenario:
- Many regions are expected to see a more than 10 percent decline in fish biomass by the mid-century.
- Countries Severely Affected:
- The worst-hit regions include countries heavily reliant on aquatic foods for protein and those that are top global producers of marine fisheries.
- Notable countries include the Solomon Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Portugal, Palau, China, and Peru.
End-of-Century Projections
- High-Emissions Scenario:
- If emissions are not curtailed, fish biomass is projected to decline by 30 percent or more in 48 countries and territories by the end of the century.
- Low-Emissions Scenario:
- If global warming is limited to 1.5-2°C, changes in fish biomass will stabilize between no change and a decrease of 10 percent or less across 178 countries and territories.
Regional Impacts
- Asia: Most Asian countries (60 percent) will experience significant declines in exploitable fish biomass under both emissions scenarios by mid-century.
- North and South America: These regions show wide variations in projected changes. Strong declines are expected in countries like Guatemala, El Salvador, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Panama, and Colombia.
- Europe: Projections are mixed. While some increases are expected in very high latitudes (Russia) and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (Greece, Italy, Malta), most countries will see declines under both scenarios.
- Africa: Most African countries and territories will face declines, with exceptions in the northern continent and around southeastern and southwestern islands like Morocco and Mauritius.
- Oceania: This region, already vulnerable to numerous climate hazards, will see some of the most pronounced losses in exploitable fish biomass globally.
- Implications for Major Fishing Nations
- Seven countries, which accounted for 48 per cent of global marine capture in 2022, will likely experience biomass losses under both high and low emissions scenarios.
- These countries are China, India, Indonesia, Peru, Russia, Vietnam, and the United States.
- Policy Recommendations
- The report underscores the need for improved accuracy in climate impact modelling for marine ecosystems and fisheries.
- It calls for building capacity through the provision of tools and training to enhance capabilities for future policy needs.
- This recommendation aims to equip nations better to understand and mitigate the impacts of climate change on their marine resources.
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
- The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations that leads international efforts to defeat hunger and improve nutrition and food security.
- Its Latin motto, fiat panis, translates to “let there be bread”. It was founded in 1945.
- The FAO comprises 195 members, including 194 countries and the European Union.
- Its headquarters is in Rome, Italy, and it maintains regional and field offices worldwide, operating in over 130 countries.
- It helps governments and development agencies coordinate their activities to improve and develop agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and land and water resources.
- It also conducts research, provides technical assistance to projects, operates educational and training programs, and collects agricultural output, production, and development data.