THE CONTEXT: Myanmar’s escalating violence and shift in support from neighbouring countries are heightening tensions and victories of armed group is leading to surge in conflict. This has affected the independent media as well as the office of the independent media group has been looted which are seeking refuge in the region outside Myanmar.
ISSUES:
- Exodus of journalists: Several Myanmar journalists were forced to abandon their native places, seeking refuge in neighbouring countries, or in regions in Myanmar that were outside junta control.
- Refugee crisis: Vast numbers of Myanmar citizens over two million within Myanmar and some 1.5 million refugee seekers have been forced from their homes since the coup. Estimates suggest nearly half of Myanmar’s population, i.e., 25 million people, is living in conditions of poverty.
- Regional issue: The fact that Myanmar’s independent media has been forced to maintain a presence in neighbouring countries is further evidence that the Myanmar conflict is not contained to Myanmar. It is rather a regional problem as the conflict has spread over its borders to impact neighbouring countries. The result is a highly destabilising situation for Myanmar and its neighbours.
- Security concerns: Fighting and refugee flows pose grave security concerns for Myanmar neighbours, including Bangladesh, China, India and Thailand, while placing extreme humanitarian demands on these countries. Meanwhile, the collapse of rule of law has led to an explosion of criminal activity with not only negative repercussions for Myanmar but also for regional countries victimised by this criminal underworld.
- Economic concerns: Hostilities in Myanmar further serve as an impediment to envisioned trade and economic corridors throughout the region.
- Representative democracy: Regardless of the desire of the people of Myanmar, the State Administration Council (SAC), still refuses to address the issue of Myanmar people to end military rule and the realisation of representative democracy. Instead, there is increase in suppression of the Myanmar population, including arbitrary arrests, torture, extrajudicial killings, and indiscriminate attacks against the country’s civilian population and journalists.
- Constant conflict: At the close of 2023, 316 of Myanmar’s 330 townships reported active fighting, with 40% of townships throughout the country now assessed to be out of the control of the junta. Armed hostilities opposed to the junta were highlighted by Operation 1027 (the offensive) launched by ethnic forces at the close of October 2023. The offensive was successful in overrunning approximately 200 junta camps along with getting control of four border gates.
ASEAN’S STRUGGLE FOR STABILITY:
- Following the February 2021 coup, the United States, the United Nations, the European Union, and other international stakeholders looked to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to play a leading role in ending the conflict in Myanmar.
- ASEAN reached a five-point consensus with junta leader senior General Min Aung Hlaing. However, it is difficult to identify any substantive achievements of ASEAN over the ensuing three years toward ending the conflict in Myanmar and stabilising the region.
- The result is that despite the efforts of ASEAN and others to stop the violence in Myanmar, the conflict today is arguably worse than it has been in the three years since the coup.
THE WAY FORWARD
- Strengthening ASEAN role: As ASEAN and regional neighbours have been entrusted by international bodies when it comes to finding a pathway to ending the Myanmar conflict, it is time for these actors to take action.
- Ensuring independent media: Myanmar’s independent media continues to work to protect journalists and promote press freedom. It is forming an Independent Press Council to counter the Myanmar Press Council, which no longer functions the way it should and is working for state propaganda. ASEAN and other stakeholders need to support Myanmar’s independent media and people in their battle for a truly democratic country.
- Support for democracy and human rights:There should be continued advocation for the restoration of democracy and respect for human rights in Myanmar. This includes calling for the release of political prisoners and an end to the military junta’s crackdown on dissent.
- Undertake measures in U.N. Charter: The dual interests of upholding international law and ensuring regional and international security should motivate the international community to undertake necessary measures prescribed in the U.N. Charter to counter violence originating from Myanmar.
- Economic Engagement: There should be continued engagement of Myanmar economically, but it should do so in a way that promotes sustainable development and benefits the people of Myanmar. This includes investing in infrastructure projects and supporting the development of Myanmar’s private sector.
- Engaging policymakers: Policymakers should approach Myanmar with an outlook focused not solely on Myanmar but, rather, with a comprehensive vision for the region’s stability and growth on the whole.
THE CONCLUSION:
The growing instability inside Myanmar and along the border can potentially destabilize the whole region, including South and Southeast Asia. The war in Myanmar has already negatively affected Bangladesh and India, and to a smaller extent, China and Thailand. There is a need for continued engagement of stakeholders to promote dialogue and compromise and find a peaceful solution to the country’s crisis. Working in coordination with regional partners can enhance the effectiveness of initiatives to bring stability and peace to Myanmar.
UPSC PREVIOUS YEAR QUESTIONS
Q.1 How does illegal transborder migration pose a threat to India’s security? Discuss the strategies to curb this, bringing out the factors which give impetus to such migration. (2014)
Q.2 Analyze internal security threats and transborder crimes along Myanmar, Bangladesh and Pakistan borders including Line of Control (LoC). Also, discuss the role played by various security forces in this regard. (2020)
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTIONS
Q.1 ASEAN’s solution to Myanmar is at a tipping point. Critically examine the statement with respect to failure of ASEAn to address the Myanmar issue despite several efforts.
Q.2 The current crisis of Myanmar has potential to metamorphose into a larger regional crisis with severe implications for international security. Comment.
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