POPULATION PRIORITIES: ON THE INTERIM BUDGET STATEMENT AND THE CENSUS

THE CONTEXT: Considering the postponed decennial Census, the proposal for a high-powered committee to assess demographic challenges highlights India’s evolving population dynamics, marked by a declining fertility rate amidst regional discrepancies. It underscores the urgency of navigating the entwined socio-economic issues—job adequacy and social security for an aging population—to capitalize on the country’s demographic dividend without succumbing to divisive political narratives.

ISSUES:

• Delay in the Census and its Implications: The unprecedented postponement of the decennial Census, which has been a consistent exercise since 1881, creates a data vacuum on contemporary demographic patterns. Without current census data, the Indian government lacks the direct evidence needed to address issues affected by population changes.
• Population Growth and Fertility Rates: India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped significantly, indicating that population growth, like the 20th century’s rate, is no longer the norm. Regional Variations in TFR and Higher fertility rates in certain states suggest uneven demographic transitions, necessitating state-specific policy interventions. For instance, the total fertility rate (TFR) in India has fallen to 2 overall, with only a few States — Bihar (2.98), Meghalaya (2.91), Uttar Pradesh (2.35), Jharkhand (2.26) and Manipur (2.17) — having a TFR above 2.1.
• Demographic Shifts and Socio-Economic Impact: Southern states’ reduced population share reflects the impact of better socio-economic outcomes and education on population dynamics. The population share of the southern States was reduced to 21% in 2011 from 26% in 1951. The rise in life expectancy presents both challenges in terms of elderly support and opportunities for tapping into the experience of older cohorts.
• Demographic Dividend and Employment: The demographic dividend is underutilized due to limited job creation, high unemployment, and insufficient focus on skilled jobs. Social safety nets are needed to secure the aging working population, ensuring sustainability in the workforce.
• Urbanization and Mechanization: Addressing issues stemming from rapid urbanization, including infrastructure, housing, and essential services. The mechanization and automation of work pose threats and opportunities; policies must adapt to these changing labor dynamics.
• Political Narratives and Governance Focus: Concerns about a committee prioritizing politically motivated issues such as religion or immigration over core demographic challenges. Emphasizing the importance of a governance approach that objectively focuses on demographic data for the country’s overall development.

THE WAY FORWARD:

• Expedite the Census for Policy Guidance: Prioritize and expedite the organization of the decennial census to provide an accurate, up-to-date demographic database for informed policymaking. Utilize comprehensive data from the Census to determine the specific needs and priorities across different regions.
• Evidence-Based Policy rather than Politically Charged Narratives: Ensure that the committee addressing population growth focuses on scientific data and demographic trends instead of political or religious biases. Promote an inclusive approach that incorporates the views of various stakeholders and communities, fostering national unity and social cohesion.
• Addressing Fertility Rate Variations: Implement state-specific programs to address high TFRs where necessary, focusing on education, healthcare, and women’s empowerment. Augment family planning services, particularly in states where TFR remains high, ensure easy and respectful access to reproductive health services.
• Leveraging the Demographic Dividend: Develop policies that stimulate job creation, particularly focusing on the manufacturing and service sectors, which can absorb as many workers as possible. Invest in education and vocational training to equip the young population with skills that match industry requirements and encourage entrepreneurship.
• Enhancing Social Security: Design and implement robust social security systems to support the aging population, including pensions, health insurance, and elderly care services. Explore the feasibility of schemes like Universal Basic Income to ensure a basic standard of living for all citizens, enhancing social security.
• Cooperative Federalism: Encourage states to share insights and best practices for managing demographic challenges and implementing successful socio-economic strategies. Strengthen the principle of cooperative federalism wherein the central and state governments work in partnership to develop holistic demographic policies.

THE CONCLUSION:

The ongoing deferral of India’s Census holds critical implications for evidence-based policymaking amidst demographic transitions. The high-powered committee must focus on the pragmatic aspects of employment and social security to leverage the demographic dividend. Ensuring non-empirical narratives do not sidetrack policies will be vital for India to harness its human resource potential and secure a sustainable and inclusive future.

UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTIONS:

Q.1) The crucial aspect of the development process has been the inadequate attention paid to Human Resource Development in India. Suggest measures that can address this inadequacy. (2023)

Q.2) Development and welfare schemes for the vulnerable, by their nature, are discriminatory in approach. Do you agree? Give reasons for your answer. (2023)

MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:

Q.1) Considering the current demographic data trends, analyze the potential role of the proposed high-powered committee in addressing employment, social security, and demographic challenges.

SOURCE:

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/population-priorities-on-interim-budget-statement-and-the-census/article67805120.ece