QUAD NATIONS AND CHINA

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THE CONTEXT: The, leaders of the “Quad” – U.S., India, Japan, and Australia – met in March 2021 for the first time as a group to put forward a positive agenda and address Chinese behavior in the Indo-Pacific region. The Quad summit signals about the Biden administration’s regional strategy, and the significance of the newly announced COVID-19 vaccine initiative.

ABOUT THE FIRST HEAD OF THE STATES MEETING 2021

The leaders of the four ‘Quad’ countries – India, Japan, United States, and Australia, met for the first time in a virtual conference and interacted about the prevailing scenario in the world including the ongoing covid-crisis.

Quad Leaders’ Joint Statement: “The Spirit of the Quad”

1. Commitment to quadrilateral cooperation between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. We bring diverse perspectives and are united in a shared vision for the free and open Indo-Pacific. We strive for a region that is free, open, inclusive, healthy, anchored by democratic values, and unconstrained by coercion.
2. Together, we commit to promoting a free, open rules-based order, rooted in international law to advance security and prosperity and counter threats to both the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
3. Our common goals require us to reckon with the most urgent of global challenges. Today, we pledge to respond to the economic and health impacts of COVID-19, combat climate change, and address shared challenges, including in cyberspace, critical technologies, counterterrorism, quality infrastructure investment, humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief as well as maritime domains.
4. Building on the progress our countries have achieved on health security, we will join forces to expand safe, affordable, and effective vaccine production and equitable access, to speed economic recovery and benefit global health.
5. To advance these goals and others, we will redouble our commitment to Quad engagement. We will combine our nations’ medical, scientific, financing, manufacturing and delivery, and development capabilities and establish a vaccine expert working group to implement our path-breaking commitment to safe and effective vaccine distribution; we will launch a critical- and emerging-technology working group to facilitate cooperation on international standards and innovative technologies of the future.

For the first time, they issued a joint statement which features have been mentioned in the table, with the poetic title – “Spirit of the Quad”.

They also agreed to commit to manufacturing one billion doses of vaccine by 2022 for distribution in Asia, where China’s presence casts a large shadow.

SIGNIFICANCE OF QUAD SUMMIT

For the first time, a head-level meeting was held. The meeting focused on three major areas:

1. A shared vision for the free and open Indo-Pacific
2. Open rules-based order, rooted in international law
3. Focus on the establishment of three working groups on
4. Vaccine development
5. Critical technologies
6. Climate change

Shared challenges, including in cyberspace, critical technologies, counterterrorism, quality infrastructure investment, and humanitarian-assistance and disaster-relief as well as maritime domains. The Summit for the first time adopted a joint statement with a clear vision which indicates it is more as a non-military organization rather than what China considers as an Asian-NATO. On the contrary, the most significant outcomes of the summit are related to COVID-19 vaccine production, facilitating cooperation over emerging technologies, and mitigating climate change. Also, the summit didn’t directly mention China this time. Even in the joint statement, countries avoided direct references to China.

UNDERSTANDING THE SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE THREE MAJOR FOCUS

THE FOCUS: A SHARED VISION FOR THE FREE AND OPEN INDO-PACIFIC AND OPEN RULES-BASED ORDER, ROOTED IN INTERNATIONAL LAW

THE DEVELOPMENT: One of the most important objectives of the QUAD is Indo-Pacific which has been seen in recent times. India-Pacific which has changed to Indo-Pacific is very crucial for India and has been focused for the US under its Asia-Pivot theory due to the unprecedented rise of China and security concerns. The ‘Incremental Encroachment Strategy’ of China exhibited in SCS, East China Sea (ECS) and Ladakh is a serious concern not only to the countries directly affected by overlapping EEZ or unsettled borders but also to the rest of the world. China continues to convert features/atolls into military bases, expect others to accept them like islands, and apply the ‘Baseline principle’ under UNCLOS-III to claim its 200 nautical miles of EEZ thus converting SCS into ‘Chinese lake’ over a period of time. It poses threat to freedom of navigation (FON) and flight along global Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) and may lead to some restrictions like Air Defence Identification Zone in SCS. Any such action by any country to restrict FON/flight or violation of rule of law must be challenged in UN Security Council backed by Quad.

THE CHALLENGES: To implement the idea of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific on a “rules-based” legal framework is needed. All members of Quad except the US have ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS III); hence the US needs to ratify the same, to have a moral high ground to implement it. Quad will therefore need a formal structure and a secretariat to take it forward.

FOCUS ON THE ESTABLISHMENT OF WORKING GROUP ON VACCINE DEVELOPMENT

While ensuring that vaccines have been made available to our people, “Quad” partners will launch a landmark partnership to further accelerate the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. Together, Quad leaders are taking shared action necessary to expand safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing in 2021 and will work together to strengthen and assist countries in the Indo-Pacific with vaccination, in close coordination with the existing relevant multilateral mechanisms including WHO and COVAX.

1. Quad partners are working collaboratively to achieve expanded manufacturing of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines at facilities in India, prioritizing increased capacity for vaccines authorized by Stringent Regulatory Authorities (SRA).
2. Quad partners will address financing and logistical demands for the production, procurement, and delivery of safe and effective vaccines.
3. The United States is to finance increased capacity to produce at least 1 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines by the end of 2022 with Stringent Regulatory Authorization (SRA) and/or World Health Organization (WHO) Emergency Use Listing (EUL), including the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
4. Japan is to provide concessional yen loans for the Government of India to expand manufacturing for COVID-19 vaccines for export, with a priority on producing vaccines that have received authorization from WHO Emergency Use Listing (EUL) or Stringent Regulatory Authorities.
5. Quad partners will ensure expanded manufacturing will be exported for global benefit, be procured through key multilateral initiatives, such as COVAX, that provide life-saving vaccines for low-income countries, and by countries in need.

Quad partners will also cooperate to strengthen “last-mile” vaccination, building on existing health-security and development programs, and across our governments to coordinate and strengthen our programs in the Indo-Pacific. This includes supporting countries with vaccine readiness and delivery, vaccine procurement, health workforce preparedness, responses to vaccine misinformation, community engagement, immunization capacity, and more. This group will support Quad cooperation in the long term, and use science and evidence to:

1. Design and implementation plan for the Quad COVID-19 vaccine effort;
2. Identify hurdles impeding vaccine administration in the region;
3. Work with financiers and production facilities to monitor timely and sufficient capacity expansion that will lead to wider distribution of safe and effective vaccines;
4. Share governmental plans to support Indo-Pacific health security and COVID-19 response, and identify practical cooperation on “last-mile” delivery for hard-to-reach communities in need;
5. Strengthen and support the life-saving work of international organizations, including the WHO, COVAX, Gavi, CEPI, UNICEF, the G7, ASEAN, and governments, and call on other countries to do the same.

FOCUS ON THE ESTABLISHMENT OF WORKING GROUP ON CRITICAL TECHNOLOGIES  

Quad leaders recognize that a free, open, inclusive, and resilient Indo-Pacific requires that critical and emerging technology is governed and operates according to shared interests and values. In that spirit, we will convene a Critical and Emerging Technology Working Group, which will:

1. Develop a statement of principles on technology design, development, and use;
2. Facilitate coordination on technology standards development, including between our national technology standards bodies and working with a broad range of partners;
3. Encourage cooperation on telecommunications deployment, diversification of equipment suppliers, and future telecommunications, including through close cooperation with our private sectors and industry;
4. Facilitate cooperation to monitor trends and opportunities related to developments in critical and emerging technology, including biotechnology;
5. Convene dialogues on critical technology supply chains.

FOCUS ON THE ESTABLISHMENT OF WORKING GROUP ON CLIMATE CHANGE  

1. Cooperation, both among ourselves and with other countries, to strengthen implementation of the Paris Agreement, including to keep a Paris-aligned temperature limit within reach;
2. Working together and with other countries to support, strengthen, and enhance actions globally;
3. Committing to advancing low-emissions technology solutions to support emissions reduction;
4. Cooperation on climate mitigation, adaptation, resilience, technology, capacity-building, and climate finance.

THE EVOLUTION OF QUAD SINCE 2004

Quad was formed nine days after a tsunami struck seven Indo-Pacific rim countries on December 26, 2004, a group of officials from Australia, Japan, India, and the US had congregated on a conference call to coordinate their rescue and relief operations. Called the Tsunami Core Group, they met at an appointed time every day for calls that lasted no more than 40 minutes. One of their “primary objectives” was “putting itself out of business”. The group was shut down on January 5, 2006. But it had sown, by then, seeds of a habit that would grow over a period of time to become the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.

1. Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) is the informal strategic dialogue between India, the USA, Japan, and Australia with a shared objective to ensure and support a “free, open and prosperous” Indo-Pacific region.
2. The idea of Quad was first mooted by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2007. However, the idea couldn’t move ahead with Australia pulling out of it, apparently due to Chinese pressure.

• In December 2012, Shinzo Abe again floated the concept of Asia’s “Democratic Security Diamond” involving Australia, India, Japan, and the US to safeguard the maritime commons from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific.
• In November 2017, India, the US, Australia, and Japan gave shape to the long-pending “Quad” Coalition to develop a new strategy to keep the critical sea routes in the Indo-Pacific free of any influence (especially China).

WHAT QUAD IS MEANT FOR THE FOUR COUNTRIES AND THEIR RELATIONS WITH CHINA

COUNTRIES: USA

QUAD: The USA had followed a policy to contain China’s increasing influence in East Asia. Therefore, the USA sees the coalition as an opportunity to regain its influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The US has described China, along with Russia, as a strategic rival in its National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and the Pentagon’s report on Indo-Pacific Strategy.

COUNTRIES: Australia

QUAD: Australia is concerned about China’s growing interest in its land, infrastructure, and politics, and its influence on its universities. Taking into account its overwhelming economic dependence on China for prosperity, Australia has continued its commitment to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China.

COUNTRIES: Japan

QUAD: In the last decade, Japan has expressed concerns related to China’s territorial transgression in the region. Trade volume with China remains the key lifeline to the Japanese economy, where net exports contributed exactly one-third of Japan’s economic growth since the beginning of 2017. Therefore, considering its importance, Japan is balancing its economic needs and territorial concerns with China-Japan has also agreed to involve in the Belt and Road Initiative by participating in infrastructure programs in the third country. In this way, Japan can mitigate Chinese influence in those countries while improving relations with China.

COUNTRIES: India

QUAD: In recent years, China’s violation of international norms, particularly its construction of military facilities on reclaimed islands in the South China Sea, and its growing military and economic power, pose a strategic challenge to India. Considering China’s strategic importance, India is carefully balancing China on one hand and the US on the other, by remaining committed to strategic autonomy to China, which has generally proved reassuring to China.

INDIA’S GEOPOLITICAL PERSPECTIVE

• For India, the new terms of the Quad will mean more strategic support after a tense year at the LAC with China.
• It will also provide a boost for India’s pharmaceutical prowess, opportunities for technology partnerships, and more avenues for regional cooperation on development projects and financing infrastructure.
• India’s insistence on an inclusive approach was in keeping with the sentiments of many smaller countries in the region, which may not take an explicit anti-China position.
• This could also pave the way for India to become the manufacturing destination for Quad countries, thus reducing dependence on China.

INDIA AND US RELATIONS

Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump to become the 46^th US President. Biden’s running mate Kamala Devi Harris has become the first woman and first Indian- and African- American Vice President of the country. Biden and Harris sworn into office on 20th January 2021. On October 27th, 2020, India and the United States signed the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement – BECA. It was signed during the third round of 2+2 dialogue.

What is BECA?

BECA stands for Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement. It is a pact or communication agreement proposed for geo-spatial cooperation between the Ministry of Defence of the Government of India and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency of the US Department of Defence. It will enable the two countries to share military information and strengthen their defense partnership.

The main provisions of the BECA Agreement

• The pact will allow the armed force of the US to provide advanced navigational assistance and avionics on US-supplied aircraft to India.
• India will get real-time access to American geospatial intelligence that will enhance the accuracy of automated systems and weapons like cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and armed drones.
• India gets access to topographical and aeronautical data through the sharing of information on maps and satellite images, this will be helpful in navigation and targeting.
• BECA will provide Indian military systems with a high-quality GPS to navigate missiles with real-time intelligence to precisely target the adversary.
• BECA is to help India and the US counter growing Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

BECA completes the “foundational pacts” for deep military cooperation between the two countries. India and the US have already signed three key foundational agreements-

1. General Security of Military Information Agreement – GSOMIA in 2002, that covered the area of areas of security and military information
2. The Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement – LEMOA in 2016 covering logistics exchange and communications
3. Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement – COMCASA in 2018 which was for compatibility and security.

India-US relations have become increasingly multi-faceted, covering cooperation in areas such as trade, defense and security, education, science and technology, civil nuclear energy, space technology and applications, environment, and health. Grass root-level interactions between the people of the two nations provide further vitality and strength to this bilateral relationship. There have been regular contacts at political and official levels with a wide-ranging dialogue on bilateral, regional, and global issues have taken place. A “Strategic Dialogue” was established in July 2009 during the visit of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to India with the objective of strengthening bilateral cooperation across diverse sectors. The first round of the Strategic Dialogue was held in Washington, DC in June 2010, followed by the second round in New Delhi in July 2011. The Minister of External Affairs led the Indian delegation for the Dialogue; the US Secretary of State led the Dialogue from the US side. The third meeting of the Strategic Dialogue will be held in Washington in June 2012.

QUAD AND CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE OF INTERNATIONAL FORA AND ALIGNMENTS

FORA NAD ALLIGNMEENTS: ASEAN

THE DYNAMICS: At present, ASEAN is the premier forum for regional affairs in the Asia-Pacific. Other major regional institutions, such as the East Asia Summit (EAS), the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, fulfill complementary roles and are either descendants of or enjoy the full support of ASEAN. Questions have arisen about how the Quad and ASEAN might coexist in a region already deeply enmeshed with multilateral fora. The Quad is not as incompatible with ASEAN’s interests as presumed. Though ASEAN has had an interest in its members’ security since its inception, over time its attention progressively turned outwards, seeking to shape regional affairs.

FORA NAD ALLIGNMEENTS: East Asia Summit (EAS), ASEAN Security Forum

THE DYNAMICS: East Asia Summit (EAS), ASEAN Security Forum, and the decades-old APEC are some of them. But these forums have become lazy talking shops without any discernible results.

FORA NAD ALLIGNMEENTS: SCO

THE DYNAMICS: China is the founding member. Other members like India, Pakistan, and Russia are going through changes in their strategic interests.

FORA NAD ALLIGNMEENTS: RECP Operationalization

THE DYNAMICS: For Japan and Australia, China remains the biggest trading partner, a relationship that will only grow once the 15-nation RCEP gets operationalized. In this context, it would be difficult for Quad members countries like Japan and Australia to strategically align with the US and India.

FORA NAD ALLIGNMEENTS: BRICS

THE DYNAMICS: Except Brazil and SA, the other three have divergence on QUAD

FORA NAD ALLIGNMEENTS: There are both convergence and divergence on QUAD

QUAD AS  “ASIAN NATO”

• Since the first steps towards the Quad’s construction in 2007, China has sought to define the regional discourse by describing the forum as the “Asian NATO” and the harbinger of a “new Cold War”.
• The conflation of the Quad with the annual Malabar naval exercises added to the image of the Quad as a military formation and generated much unease across the Indo-Pacific.
• There is also an expansion of Malabar naval exercise which becomes an indication for a military alliance.
• India’s increasing strategic defense relation with the US is also the manifestation of such understanding.

THE UNCERTAINTY AND CHALLENGES OF QUAD

• What QUAD is-a a military alliance, a political forum, or an emerging grouping for global re-alignment is not clear which is the most important challenge. As of now, it is an informal grouping without any Office or secretariat. Hence, the questions are: will it become a formal group and have its secretariat?
• Is it more as Asia-Pivot of the US policy based on China containment? Whether the US is taking advantage of the situation in Asia and aligning against China as a new cold-war strategy.
• In Global Times, a newspaper under China’s People’s Daily group, one-piece argues that amid escalating China-US tensions, the US “has seized the opportunities of the downturn in China-India relations and the intensity of China-Australia ties to repeatedly court India and Australia, in order to make up for the weak points of the ‘Quad’ mechanism.”
• The countries, including Vietnam, South Korea, New Zealand, among others – would not be too receptive to a Quad, which assumes the form of a military alliance, even if they harbour their own disputes against China.
• How far India will go “in the next step” depends not only on whether its relations with China will cool down, but also on US-China tensions, US domestic policies, and India-Russia relations.
• India’s foreign policy should neither be China-containment-centric or US-centric. Both can be disastrous.
• HIMALAYAN QUAD: If QUAD becomes a military alliance, China may try to form a Himalayan QUAD with Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.

WAY FORWARD

The Quad may not be a full-scale alliance yet, but a new “minilateral” is taking shape. Quad’s immediate focus on vaccines and sharing of responsibility was welcomed by India. India is already supplying 60% of the world’s vaccines. The initiative will further boost its vaccine manufacturing capacity. This could also pave the way for India to become the manufacturing destination for Quad countries, thus reducing dependence on China. Quad partners such as Japan and Australia were unhappy over India’s decision to stay out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. If Quad emerges as an economic powerhouse, it will be beneficial to the entire region.

WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE?

INSTITUTIONALISATION OF THE QUAD: It should be made a formal organization with its secretariat.

NEED FOR CLEAR VISION: The Quad nations need to better explain the Indo-Pacific Vision in an overarching framework with the objective of advancing everyone’s economic and security interests. This will reassure the littoral States that the Quad will be a factor for the regional benefit, and a far cry from Chinese allegations that it is some sort of a military alliance.

EXPANDING QUAD: India has many other partners in the Indo-Pacific, therefore India should pitch for countries like Indonesia, Singapore to be invited to join in the future.

NEED FOR A MARITIME DOCTRINE: India should develop a comprehensive vision on the Indo-Pacific which would ideate on the current and future maritime challenges, consolidate its military and non-military tools, engage its strategic partners.

RECALIBRATION NEEDED FROM CHINA: As the Quad summit has done well to shed the image of Anti-China bias, it is up to China now to rethink its current aggressive policies and seek cooperative relations with its Asian neighbors and the US.

CONCLUSION

The challenges posed by the pandemic presented a perfect setting for the Quad nations to demonstrate their commitment to the broader agenda that is in tune with the urgent requirements of the region. In this context, the repurposing of the Quad to deal with shared challenges in the Indo-Pacific ensures the forum’s political sustainability over the longer term. The Summit did not signal expansion, but it needs to have the flexibility to incorporate like-minded democratic countries, as many would be keen to join Quad in the future because the Indo-Pacific region is becoming the economic center of gravity and manufacturing hub of the world. Support of other navies like France, the UK, Germany, and other NATO members will be good deterrence to peace spoilers. Quad in its present form may not be structured to check Chinese adventurism, but it certainly has the potential to become one of the most effective instruments to do so. Chinese reactions indicate that it certainly has put China on notice, without even naming it.