THE CONTEXT: On 26 June 2025, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Defence Ministers met at Qingdao. India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh walked away from the joint declaration because it ignored the Pahalgam massacre and, instead, inserted language equating Pakistan-sponsored terrorism with Baloch insurgency. New Delhi judged the text “morally inverted” and declined to legitimise it.
HISTORICAL EVOLUTION OF THE SCO COUNTER-TERRORISM AGENDA:
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- 1996-2001: The “Shanghai Five” (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) first bonded over common anxiety about “the three evils” of terrorism, separatism and extremism.
- 2001-04: Uzbekistan joined, the SCO Charter codified CT cooperation (Art. 1), and the permanent Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) was set up in Tashkent.
- 2011-15: RATS peaked: 20 attacks foiled, 440 camps destroyed, 2700 militants arrested, and 50 t of explosives seized.
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:
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- Collective-security ideal: SCO’s charter presumes that shared threat perception yields shared enforcement.
- Competitive hegemony reality: In practice, great-power rivalries (China-Russia leadership contest) and parochial agendas (Pakistan’s proxy doctrine) create principal-agent gaps that paralyse joint action.
CONTEMPORARY THREAT LANDSCAPE: UN Monitoring-Team report (July 2024) places ISKP strength at 1 500 – 4 000 fighters with growing Central-Asian recruitment.
| INCIDENT | GROUP & MODUS | MESSAGE TO SCO |
|---|---|---|
| Kerman, Iran twin suicide bombings, 3 Jan 2024 | Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) | ISKP’s operational radius now spans Iran-to-Russia corridor |
| Moscow Crocus City Hall attack, 22 Mar 2024 | ISKP cell, mostly Tajik gunmen | “External operations” beyond Af-Pak |
| Pahalgam tourist massacre, 22 Apr 2025 | The Resistance Front (TRF) / LeT proxy | Pakistan’s calibrated escalation into soft-target terrorism |
| Rask police-station assault, 15 Dec 2023 | Jaish al-Adl | State-backed insurgency infects SCO’s western flank |
| Iran’s cross-border missile strike into Pakistan, 16 Jan 2024 | Retaliation vs Jaish al-Adl bases | Unilateral pre-emption eroding SCO solidarity |
STATE-COMPLICITY MATRIX: China–Pakistan synergy multiplies veto power, corroding the ‘Shanghai Spirit’.
| CATEGORY | BEHAVIOURAL MARKERS | CURRENT SCO EXAMPLES |
|---|---|---|
| Silent sponsors | Politically shield proxies; stall UN listings | Pakistan shielding Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad |
| Veto players | Dilute joint communiqués, block database entries | China vetoing Indian proposals, blocking TRF listing |
| Spoilers | Allow arms & narcotics corridors | Elements in Afghanistan, Tajik warlords |
INDIA IN THE SCO: GAINS, FRICTIONS, RED-LINES:
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- Gains: Overflight corridors for Afghanistan aid; new joint drills (Pabbi-2024); banking-security dialogue.
- Frictions: China’s veto on listing Pakistan-based actors; database language barrier; stalled energy-pipeline discussions.
- Red-lines: Any equivalence between terrorism and legitimate self-determination; dilution of Paris-aligned CT norms.
- India’s kinetic Operation Sindoor neutralised nine terror camps in Pakistan-occupied territory, signalling Doctrine of “Quid Pro Quo Plus”.
- Unchecked proxy warfare pushes neighbours toward unilateral strikes (Iran-Pakistan exchange, India’s precision raids), raising risks of miscalculation and a centrifugal “every-state-for-itself” security spiral.
THE ISSUES:
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- Normative incoherence: SCO Charter condemns terrorism, yet member interpretations diverge; absence of a common definition breeds forum-shopping.
- Veto-ridden decision-making: Consensus rule empowers spoilers, visible in blocked listings and diluted communiqués.
- Information asymmetry: RATS database and training curricula are language-locked, slowing Indian & Iranian analytical cycles.
- Proxy externalities: State-backed groups (LeT, Jaish al-Adl) enjoy cross-border sanctuaries, outsourcing risk while inflaming neighbours.
- Resource inequity: China funds data-architecture and leverages that for agenda-setting, marginalising smaller states’ priorities.
- Technological lag: Limited joint work on counter-UAV, crypto-currency tracking, AI-enabled surveillance.
- Human-rights overhang: Some Central-Asian regimes use CT label to stifle secular opposition, delegitimising genuine SCO CT efforts.
THE WAY FORWARD:
| BROAD THEME | ACTIONABLE MEASURE | EXPLANATION |
|---|---|---|
| “Triple-Trigger” Listing Protocol | India should lobby for an amendment that allows automatic provisional listing in RATS when three independent members flag the same entity, bypassing single-country veto. | Balances sovereignty with urgency; mirrors UNSC 1267 practice. |
| SCO Counter-Drone Sandbox | Co-create an annual live-fire exercise (modelled on RAF’s Dragon Fire) focusing on hard-kill & soft-kill anti-UAV tech. | Tackles emerging aerial infiltration threats on Indo-Pak & Sino-Rus borders. |
| “Narco-Watch Eurasia” Task-force | Joint NCB-led initiative to map heroin-meth routes funding ISKP and LeT; leverage UNODC’s Container Control Programme. | Cuts terror finance lifeline, aligns with FATF goals. |
| Victim-Centric Diplomacy | Institutionalise a SCO Day of Remembrance for Terror Victims; India to showcase Pahalgam testimonies. | Humanises debate, puts onus on state-sponsors, builds soft-power coalition. |
| SCO-Interpol Fusion Cell | Negotiate secondments of RATS analysts to Interpol’s CT Directorate and vice-versa for shared watch-lists. | Grants RATS external validation and forensic support without new bureaucracy. |
| Performance-linked Budgeting | Shift RATS funding formula so that output metrics (joint ops, shared indictments) drive budget shares, reducing free-rider problem. | Introduces market-like incentives into multilateral CT. |
THE CONCLUSION:
The SCO is at an inflection point; either revive its founding compact by locking arms against all terror proxies or watch member-states revert to self-help doctrines that amplify conflict. India’s stance at Qingdao was a norm-entrepreneurial push to test that resolve. Future relevance of the ‘Shanghai Spirit’ hinges on whether the organisation can reform from within or becomes yet another ledger in the long list of Eurasian talking-shops.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Q. ‘Virus of Conflict is affecting the functioning of the SCO’ In the light of the above statement point out the role of India in mitigating the problems. 2023
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q. Regional groupings often falter when member-states weaponise terrorism for narrow geopolitical ends. Analyse this statement in the context of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
SOURCE:
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/counterterrorism-and-the-limits-of-sco
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