THE CONTEXT: India enters the second half of its demographic-dividend window (2005-2055) with 371 million people aged 15-29 years – the largest youth cohort on the planet. World Bank and NITI Aayog modelling shows that purposeful investment in their capabilities could add about USD 1 trillion to GDP by 2030. At the same time, 36 per cent of adults face unintended pregnancies and 30 per cent report unmet fertility goals, signalling constraints on reproductive autonomy.
THE BACKGROUND:
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- Since the International Conference on Population and Development (1994), global population policy has shifted from numerical targets to a rights-based, people-centred India mirrored this transition by moving from “Family Planning” (1952) to “Family Welfare” (1977) and the National Population Policy (2000), which foregrounds choice and reproductive health.
THE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:
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- Demographic dividend: A temporary economic bonus created when the working-age share of the population rises faster than dependents.
- Capability approach (Amartya Sen): Real freedoms (education, health, agency) are ends in themselves and the surest route to inclusive growth.
- Rights-based reproductive health: Bodily autonomy is a prerequisite for human development and gender justice.
WHAT, WHY AND HOW:
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- What? India grapples with regional pockets of early marriage, adolescent fertility, low female labour force participation (FLFPR) and skill mismatches.
- Why? Patriarchal norms, inadequate youth-friendly sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services, care-economy deficits, and weak school-to-work transition pipelines.
- How? By integrating health, education, skilling, finance and social-norm change under a unified, data-driven “youth capability compact”.
CURRENT SCENARIO:
| INDICATOR | LATEST VALUE | SOURCE | UPSHOT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Child marriage (women 20-24 married <18 yrs) | 23.3 % | NFHS-5 | Halved since 2006 yet above 30 % in eight States. |
| Teenage childbearing (15-19 yrs) | 7 % national; >14 % in some districts | NFHS-5 | Concentrated in eastern and central regions. |
| Unintended pregnancies | 36 % | UNFPA 2025 | Signals gaps in contraception access. |
| Female LFPR (15+ yrs) | 35.6 % in 2023-24, up from 21.1 % in 2017-18 | PLFS | Rising but still well below global average (47 %). |
| Sex ratio at birth | 930 (2023-24) vs 918 (2014-15) | MoHFW HMIS | BBBP impact visible, but plateauing. |
INDIAN POLICY LANDSCAPE AND FLAGSHIP INTERVENTIONS:
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- Beti Bachao Beti Padhao (2015): Multi-sector push to improve Sex Ratio at Birth and girl-child education; SRB up 12 points.
- National Adolescent Health Programme (2014): School- and community-based health services, adolescent-friendly clinics.
- Project Udaan, Rajasthan (2017-22): Prevented 30000 child marriages and averted 15 000 teenage pregnancies through scholarships and SRH counselling.
- Advika, Odisha (2019-ongoing): 11000 villages declared child-marriage-free; 950 weddings stopped in 2022 alone.
- Project Manzil, Rajasthan (2019-25): 28000 young women trained, 16000 placed in skilled jobs, enhancing negotiation power to delay marriage.
DRIVERS OF CHANGE:
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- Digital Public Infrastructure (Aadhaar, DigiLocker, UPI) lowers transaction costs for targeted cash transfers and skill-credential portability.
- Rapid decline in Total Fertility Rate to 2.0 (NFHS-5) alters inter-generational support ratios, necessitating higher labour productivity.
- Care-economy expansion (POSHAN 2.0, PM e-Vidya, National Creche Scheme) frees women’s time.
- Climate and technology transitions creating new “green-blue-digital” job families.
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE & BEST PRACTICES:
| COUNTRY & PROGRAMME | WHAT WORKS | RELEVANCE TO INDIA |
|---|---|---|
| Berhane Hewan, Ethiopia | Community incentives for girls’ schooling & delayed marriage | Demonstrates value of conditional asset transfers and community dialogue |
| Rwanda’s Adolescent Girls & Young Women Operational Plan 2025-30 | Youth-friendly SRH services embedded in national insurance | Guides Ayushman Bharat add-on for SRH |
| Bangladesh SEIP: Skills for Employment Investment Programme | Market-linked training with women-centred counselling | Mirrors Manzil model for India’s MSME clusters |
THE ISSUES:
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- Uneven demographic dividend: Northern States still high TFR, southern States facing workforce ageing, complicating national policy calibration.
- Skill mismatch: Only 20 % of engineering graduates deemed employable; National Credit Framework yet to integrate informal skills.
- Gendered care burden: Time-use surveys show women spend 352 minutes/day on unpaid care versus 51 minutes for men; lack of quality childcare / elder-care infrastructure.
- Reproductive autonomy deficit: 12 % unmet need for modern contraception among adolescents; only 24 % of districts have functional Adolescent-Friendly Health Clinics.
- Digital divide: 42 % rural young women lack personal smartphone, limiting access to tele-skilling and tele-health.
- Norm inertia: Early-marriage hotspots correlate with caste hierarchies and dowry prevalence, legal reforms alone insufficient.
- Fragmented governance: Youth issues span seven ministries; absence of a unified “National Youth Capability Authority” weakens accountability.
THE WAY FORWARD:
| Universalise adolescent-friendly SRH services | Upgrade every Ayushman Bharat health-and-wellness centre with a trained adolescent counsellor, tele-gynaecology link and free modern contraceptives. This fulfils the National Health Policy target of 90 % contraceptive demand met by 2030 while safeguarding privacy. |
| Conditional cash transfers for secondary & tertiary education | Scale up Ladli Lakshmi-type schemes nationwide, pegging payments to Grade 10 and Skill-Level 3 completion plus proof of being unmarried before age 21. Evidence from Udaan shows a ₹1 spent returns ₹4 in avoided early-pregnancy costs. |
| Gender-responsive skilling clusters with apprenticeship quotas | Mandate a 30 % female apprenticeship share under the National Apprenticeship Promotion Scheme, co-located with One District One Product clusters and equipped with safe transport and crèche facilities. Link completion to guaranteed job interviews through the National Career Service portal. |
| Care-economy public investment | Create a National Care Infrastructure Mission funding 10 000 neighbourhood crèches, elder-day-care centres and disability-support units by 2030, operated through women’s Self-Help Groups under NRLM. This could raise FLFPR by 5 percentage points, adding ₹1.7 lakh crore to GVA annually. |
| Legal reform to harmonise marriage age | Enact the Prohibition of Child Marriage (Amendment) Bill 2021 raising women’s marriage age to 21 but couple it with a five-year transition plan of community engagement, dowry-free certification incentives and fast-track women’s hostel construction to avoid backlash. |
| District Youth Development Index (YDI) dashboard | Embed a YDI tracking SRB, FLFPR, TFR, digital skills and mental-health access into the Aspirational District Programme’s real-time data platform. Tie 10 % of Finance Commission grants to YDI score improvement, nudging evidence-based convergence. |
THE CONCLUSION:
India’s demographic dividend is an expiring option. Converting it into sustained prosperity hinges on safeguarding reproductive rights, unlocking women’s economic agency, and aligning skilling with an evolving labour market.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Q. Distinguish between ‘care economy’ and ‘monetised economy’. How can the care economy be brought into the monetised economy through women empowerment? 2023
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q. India’s demographic dividend will remain an uncashed cheque unless reproductive autonomy, female labour force participation and market-relevant skilling move in tandem. Examine.
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