THE CONTEXT: The Indian Ocean—through which roughly 80 per cent of global seaborne oil and 70 per cent of world merchandise trade flow—has re-emerged as the geopolitical heart of the Indo-Pacific, linking the energy hubs of West Asia with the manufacturing centres of East Asia and beyond. India sits astride these Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs), whereas China, dependent on the same routes, is methodically building leverage through infrastructure, scientific missions and institution-building.
THE HISTORICAL EVOLUTION:
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- Pre-Cold War: Indian Ocean was the artery of spice, cotton and later oil trade, dominated successively by Arab, European and British navies.
- Cold War Lull: After UK’s east-of-Suez withdrawal (1968) and USSR–US détente, the ocean receded from super-power contest till the 1980s Gulf crises.
- 21st Century Revival: Piracy off Somalia (2005-11), China’s Belt and Road Initiative (2013-) and Indo-Pacific construct (2017-) restored great-power focus.
CONCEPTUAL LENSES:
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- Sea-Power Theory: control of chokepoints equals control of commerce and control of power.
- Regional Security Complex Theory: Proximity makes Indian Ocean actors security-interdependent; an external power (China) disturbs equilibrium.
- Middle-Power Balancing: India uses coalition-building (Quad, Colombo Security Conclave) to offset asymmetric hard power.
GEOSTRATEGIC VALUE:
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- Energy artery: 80 % of world’s seaborne oil & 40 % of global LNG pass through IOR chokepoints (Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, Malacca).
- Demographic Rim: By 2030, littoral states will host 35 % of global population.
- Blue Economy: World Bank values IOR marine economy at US $2 trillion/year; fisheries alone support 5 million Indian livelihoods.
CHINA’S INCREMENTAL STRATEGY:
| FACET | EVIDENCE | UPSHOT FOR INDIA |
|---|---|---|
| Port-Park-City Model | 99-yr lease of Hambantota; Gwadar port + SEZ; Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) as BRI nodes. | Potential PLAN logistics hubs encircling India. |
| Research Vessels & Surveillance | Yuan Wang 5 (Sri Lanka 2022) & Chinese survey ship in Maldives. | Dual-use hydro-acoustic data can aid submarine ops. |
| Alternative Institutions | China-Indian Ocean Forum (2022, Kunming) with 19 nations—India excluded. | Narrative battle overrule-making. |
| Economic Statecraft | Cheap loans, build-operate-transfer contracts; refinery deal in Hambantota (2025). | Debt-equity swaps create long-term leverage. |
INDIA’S MARITIME POSTURE:
| PILLAR | KEY DOCUMENT / PLATFORM | LATEST FACTS |
|---|---|---|
| Doctrine | Indian Maritime Security Strategy 2015 | Stresses “Sea Control & Sea Denial in outer arcs.” |
| Vision Frameworks | SAGAR (2015), MAHASAGAR (2025) | Focus on HADR, connectivity, climate resilience. |
| Information Fusion | Information Fusion Centre-Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR) | 12 foreign Liaison Officers; 50-plus links to coastal radars. |
| Minilateral Coalitions | Quad, IPMDA, Colombo Security Conclave | Quad’s Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness delivers unclassified satellite feeds. |
THE ISSUES:
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- Capability Asymmetry: China’s 380-ship People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) dwarfs India’s 150 active combatants, limiting India’s sea-control windows.
- Fiscal Constraints: Capital outlays for Indigenous Aircraft Carrier-2 (IAC-2) and nuclear-attack submarines face competing welfare priorities.
- Strategic Ports Vulnerability: Chinese-operated ports near SLOCs could enable logistics turn-round for PLAN, squeezing India’s deterrence posture.
- Information Gaps: Despite IFC-IOR, coastal radar gaps remain in western Indian Ocean Island states, creating blind spots.
- Small-State Tilt: Debt-distressed littorals may accept Chinese terms, diluting India’s influence despite cultural affinity.
- Legal Ambiguity: Absence of a binding regional Code of Conduct for military research vessels hampers India’s protest options.
- Blue-Economy Over-exploitation: Illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing by distant-water fleets erodes livelihoods in Lakshadweep and Andaman seas.
- Climate-Security Nexus: Rising sea levels threaten Indian naval infrastructure (e.g., Karwar Phase III) and low-lying partner islands alike.
THE WAY FORWARD:
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- Prioritise Under-water Domain Awareness: Accelerate seabed sensor grids and integrate DRDO’s SMART anti-submarine targets with IFC-IOR feeds for real-time cueing.
- Theatre Command Reforms: Fast-track Maritime Theatre Command to unify naval-coast-air assets, shortening decision-loops in crisis.
- Island Connectivity Corridors: Co-build green energy and digital links with Mauritius, Seychelles and Maldives to bind economic interdependence.
- Norm-Shaping: Champion an Indian Ocean Code of Conduct on Military Hydrography at IORA, institutionalising consent procedures for research vessels.
- Quad-Plus Logistics: Conclude reciprocal logistics pacts with France (Réunion), Indonesia (Sabang) and Kenya (Mombasa) to out-flank the “string of pearls.”
- Port Resilience Audits: Offer turnkey cybersecurity and dredging support to littoral ports, reducing their dependence on Chinese operators.
- Blue-Skills Initiative: Establish an Indo-Pacific Maritime Academy in Kochi for training in hydrography, coastal engineering and blue-economy governance.
THE CONCLUSION:
India’s maritime future hinges on moving from reactive coastal defence to proactive regional stewardship. The contest with China is not merely a naval numbers game; it is a competition of institutional legitimacy, developmental credibility and technological edge.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Q. What are the maritime security challenges in India? Discuss the organisational, technical and procedural initiatives taken to improve the maritime security. 2022
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q. Critically analyse India’s strategy under Vision MAHASAGAR and suggest concrete measures to enhance maritime deterrence.
SOURCE:
https://www.orfonline.org/research/jostling-for-primacy-india-s-china-challenge-in-the-indian-ocean
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