THE CONTEXT: On 19 June 2025, Kunming hosted the inaugural vice-foreign-minister-level dialogue among China, Pakistan and Bangladesh, signalling the birth of a standing trilateral mechanism. The meeting followed a May 2025 China-Pakistan-Afghanistan conclave that agreed, inter alia, to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) after the Pahalgam terror attack and fresh trade curbs on Bangladeshi exports have sharpened the region’s fault-lines.
THE BACKGROUND:
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- The 1962 Sino-Indian war pushed Beijing to embrace an “ally-of-necessity” in Pakistan to pin India down on two fronts; Islamabad reciprocated, viewing China as an unconditional security guarantor.
- Today, China accounts for 81 % of Pakistan’s major arms imports (2020-24) and ≈ US $28.8 billion of its bilateral debt stock—its single-largest creditor share (22 %).
- Operation Sindoor demonstrated New Delhi’s readiness for cross-border precision strikes while exposing Pakistan’s dependence on Chinese J-10s, air-defence radars and UAVs.
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:
| LENS | KEY PROPOSITION | RELEVANCE |
|---|---|---|
| Balance-of-Power Realism | States aggregate capabilities to offset a rising regional hegemon. | China seeds mini coalitions to dilute India’s strategic weight. |
| Peripheral Diplomacy | Beijing stabilises its rimland by cultivating “shared destiny” linkages. | Trilateralism creates economic interdependence that translates into political leverage. |
| Triangular Diplomacy | Dyads enlist a third partner to restrain an adversary (Pakistan + China + “X”). | Bangladesh and Afghanistan become the “X-factor” to outflank India’s neighbourhood primacy. |
WHAT, WHY AND HOW OF CHINA-LED TRILATERALISM:
WHAT:
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- Kunming Mechanism: Annual vice-ministerial dialogue on connectivity, maritime affairs and health.
- CPEC-Plus: Extension of Gwadar–Kashgar corridor into Kabul and, prospectively, Chittagong.
WHY:
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- Strategic Distraction: Keep India pre-occupied along its western and eastern flanks simultaneously.
- Economic Ring-Fencing: Offer concessional finance to states hit by Western conditionalities; secure ports and logistics hubs.
- Narrative Warfare: Recast South Asia’s security discourse from “Indo-Pacific” to “Development-First South Asia”.
HOW:
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- Leveraging debt diplomacy (commercial-rate loans to Pakistan, prospective RMB credit line to Bangladesh).
- Arms entanglement: Transfer of J-10C fighters, HQ-9/P air-defence and CH-5 armed drones to Pakistan; potential FC-20 export line for Bangladesh under discussion.
- Track-2 mediation: Beijing brokering the Afghan-Pakistan détente to secure CPEC assets.
INDIAN STRATEGIC STAKES:
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- Geospatial Vulnerability: A Bangladesh-Pakistan axis can squeeze the “Siliguri Corridor” from both ends, a reprise of Islamabad’s 1965 ‘East-West pincer’ concept.
- Water and Trade Levers: Suspension of IWT and land-port restrictions on Bangladeshi textiles underscore New Delhi’s ability to impose economic costs.
- Narrative Advantage: India’s calibrated yet forceful Operation Sindoor showcases political will to raise the escalation ladder under the nuclear shadow.
GLOBAL COMPARATORS:
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- U.S.–Japan–Australia Trilateral (1990s) and ASEAN-centred minilaterals illustrate how middle-power triangles hedge against great-power uncertainty. Beijing is now transplanting a similar template to South Asia but with itself as primus inter pares.
DRIVERS:
| CATEGORY | SPECIFIC DRIVERS |
|---|---|
| Geo-economic | Over-capacity in Chinese ports/construction; need new BRI pipelines; Pakistan’s economic crisis opens equity swap possibilities. |
| Geo-political | Counter-weight to Quad and Indo-Pacific narratives; safeguard western periphery (Xinjiang) from militant spill-over. |
| Domestic | Chinese state-owned enterprises’ project pipelines; Pakistan Army’s regime-maintenance and Bangladesh’s interim govt.’s legitimacy quest. |
| Technological | Digital Silk Road pilot in Chittagong SEZ; Beidou-enabled logistics for CPEC-Plus. |
THE ISSUES:
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- Strategic Overstretch: Simultaneous pressure on LOC (Line of Control) and LAC (Line of Actual Control) risks resource dilution.
- Debt-Distress Externalities: Pakistan’s and Bangladesh’s debt-service commitments may morph into sovereignty concessions (e.g., long-term port leases).
- Terror Safe Havens 2.0: China-shielded Pakistan linkage could revive cross-border proxy groups, complicating India’s counter-terror grid.
- Water Insecurity: IWT suspension amplifies ecological vulnerabilities and diplomatic contestation over shared river basins.
- Trade Disruptions: Port-centric import curbs heighten supply-chain costs, affecting Northeast India’s market integration.
- Maritime Encirclement: PLA Navy access to Bay-of-Bengal ports would compress India’s sea-lane dominance, undermining SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region).
- Regional Institution-Fatigue: SAARC paralysis and BIMSTEC over-stretch leave a void that Beijing can fill with bespoke trilaterals.
THE WAY FORWARD:
| SOLUTIONS | POLICY RESPONSE |
|---|---|
| Calibrate Compellence & Engagement | Maintain a credible retaliatory posture (post-Sindoor) while reopening selective dialogue channels. This duality sustains deterrence without foreclosing diplomacy. It aligns with the “proportionate yet responsible” doctrine. |
| Revitalise Sub-Regional Connectivity | Fast-track the BBIN (Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal) Motor Vehicle Agreement with multimodal corridors. Economic interdependence undercuts space for extra-regional leverage. |
| Counter-Narrative Diplomacy | Deploy the “Neighbourhood Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) Package”—UPI rails, Ayushman cross-border e-health cards, and scholarship quotas—to rebuild goodwill. |
| Tri-Services Capacity Augmentation in Northeast | Prioritise Ladakh and Siliguri Corridor infrastructure; integrate Integrated Battle Groups with QUAD for rapid dual-front deployment. |
| Legal Toolkit Against Grey-Zone Aggression | Enact a Critical Infrastructure Protection Act empowering MEA to impose punitive tariffs or deny over-flight clearances to entities abetting hostile cyber or terror activity. |
| Strategic Communications Corps | Create an MEA-MoD joint information warfare cell to pre-empt disinformation in crises; lessons from the information vacuum post-Sindoor highlight the urgency. |
THE CONCLUSION:
China’s trilateral experiments are less about altruistic regionalism and more about incremental encirclement. A confident yet calibrated India—leveraging strategic partnerships, economic statecraft and normative leadership—can convert this challenge into an opportunity to deepen regional integration on equitable terms rather than cede the narrative or geography to Beijing’s design.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Q. China is using its economic relations and positive trade surplus as tools to develop potential military power status in Asia’, In the light of this statement, discuss its impact on India as her neighbor. 2017
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q. Analyse the strategic rationale behind China’s new trilateral mechanisms with Pakistan and Bangladesh. How should India recalibrate its neighbourhood policy to safeguard its security and developmental interests?
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