THE CONTEXT: Precision-guided missiles, autonomous drones and AI-enabled battle management systems are now cheap, portable and deadly. The 2025 escalation cycles in West Asia (Israel–Iran), South Asia (Operation Sindoor between India and Pakistan) and Eastern Europe (Ukraine’s deep-strike drone campaign) illustrate how MAID capabilities are democratising high-end violence and eroding decades-old deterrence equations.
THE BACKGROUND:
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- Missile ubiquity – From the 1987 Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) to today’s “garage-built” loitering munitions, access barriers have collapsed.
- AI leap – Deep-learning vision algorithms (YOLO-v7, DETR-3D, etc.) slash target-acquisition time from minutes to milliseconds.
- Drone explosion – Civilian quad-copters retro-fitted with warheads cost < ₹4 lakh, yet can deny billion-dollar assets.
THE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:
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- Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) – MAID marks the third offset: low-cost autonomy offsets conventional mass.
- Offence–defence balance – Cheap precision tilts the balance toward offence, raising crisis-instability risks.
- Risk-compensation theory – Political leaders may choose force more readily when perceived costs/attrition are lower.
THE CURRENT SCENARIO:
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- Israel–Iran – 200 Israeli aircraft, followed by AI-tasked loitering drones; > 430 Iranian fatalities; retaliatory missile salvos overwhelmed by Iron Dome + David’s Sling.
- India–Pakistan – Operation Sindoor (7 May): Rafale-launched SCALP cruise missiles and Bengaluru-made “suicide drones” neutralised nine terror hubs; Pakistan sought cease-fire within 48 h.
- Ukraine–Russia – Kyiv’s 14th UAS Regiment struck 1 100 km inside Russia, igniting refineries and chip plants; Russia’s response included 400+ Shahed drones over Kyiv (6 Jun).
THE SIGNIFICANCE:
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- Strategic diffusion – Small states/non-state actors gain coercive leverage.
- Escalation ladders compressed – Computer-speed engagements outpace diplomacy.
- Civil-military blur – Dual-use chips, hobby drones complicate export controls.
THE INDIAN CONTEXT
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- Capability – TAPAS-BH-201 MALE UAV, Ghatak stealth UCAV, counter-swarm ‘Bhargavastra’.
- Budget signal – GoI planning $470 mn UAV procurement (3× pre-conflict base).
- Industrial ecosystem – 550+ firms under Drone Federation of India; PLI scheme for drones; iDEX challenges on AI-enabled loitering munitions.
- Strategic documents – Integrated Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap 2024; Defence AI Council (chaired by Raksha Mantri).
THE POLICY FRAMEWORK IN INDIA
| Year | Instrument | Key provisions |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Drone Rules, 2021 | Green–yellow–red airspace map; self-certification; import ban later (2022). |
| 2023 | Swarm Drone Policy draft | Incentives for 20+ autonomous-node swarms; mandatory “human-on-the-loop”. |
| 2024 | Integrated UTM Policy | Digital sky platform, one-second deconfliction grid. |
| 2025 | Defence Acquisition Procedure 2025 (rev.) | “Make II-A (Autonomous)” category with 75 % indigenisation target. |
THE ISSUES:
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- Normative Vacuum: International Humanitarian Law (IHL) rests on the principle of an “identifiable, accountable commander.” Autonomous weapons disrupt this chain of accountability because lethal decisions may be taken by software nested deep inside a supply-chain of vendors and coders.
- Algorithmic Bias: The Israeli Defence Forces’ AI target-recommendation tool “Gospel” reportedly flagged up to 37 000 locations in Gaza, many later proved to be civilian residences—underscoring how skewed training data can produce misclassification of combatants.
- Escalation Entanglement: RAND’s 2024 risk-assessment warns that reinforcement-learning fire-control loops can perceive countermoves as escalation, triggering auto-retaliation within milliseconds—compressing diplomatic reaction time. Simulations for India’s Integrated Rocket Force showed a 19 % probability of accidental launch if sensor fusion is fully automated.
- Cyber-Hijack Risk: Ukrainian electronic-warfare units have repeatedly spoofed Shahed-136 drones, redirecting over 100 of them back toward Belarus and Russia in November 2024 alone. Scientific American explains the vulnerability: most low-cost drones use un-encrypted civilian GPS and open-source flight-controllers.
- Supply-Chain Insecurity: China’s 2025 export curb on gallium and germanium triggered emergency meetings in New Delhi; India currently imports 92 % of its rare-earth magnets used in UAV motors.
- Environmental Fallout: The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration recorded 89 lithium-battery air incidents in 2024—a 16 % year-on-year jump. In Ukraine, 2025 field reports note toxic fluorine plumes when downed FPV drones ignite, contaminating groundwater.
- Insurance & Liability: Europe’s 2025 amendments now require third-party liability cover for drones above 0.25 kg; premiums start at €50 but exclude “war risks.” A London Commercial Court ruling (2025) on stranded Russian aircraft imposed a US $4.5 billion payout, signalling how unmanned losses could bankrupt insurers.
THE WAY FORWARD:
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- Codify ‘Human-on-the-Loop’ principle: Mandate human veto over every lethal decision; integrate explainable-AI dashboards in fire-control; embed requirement in DAP-2025 Schedule A.
- Create a National Counter-Drone Grid: Networked radars, RF jammers and directed-energy weapons around critical infrastructure; operated by Indian Air Force but data-shared with state police.
- Export-control update: Align SCOMET list with Wassenaar Arrangements’ Category 5, adding dual-use AI chips and flight-controllers; incentivise ‘know-your-end-user’
- AI-ethics sandbox at DRDO-IIT hubs: Test lethal-autonomy algorithms against synthetic civilian-pattern datasets; publish red-team findings for industry uptake.
- PLI-Drones 2.0 with ‘secure-by-design’ clause: 15 % bonus incentive for manufacturers using indigenous navigation stack (NavIC + Vision-IMU) and open-hardware flight controllers.
- Multilateral ‘No First Autonomy’ pledge: India to spearhead G-20 sub-track proposing a moratorium on fully autonomous weapons without human oversight.
- Counter-swarm R&D mission mode: Extend Bhargavastra trials to naval variants; fund high-energy lasers > 100 kW through SPARK grants.
- Legal amendments: Insert Sec 144C in the Armed Forces Act defining command responsibility for AI-enabled engagements; create fast-track military courts for AI-error inquiries.
- Civil-military fusion for disaster relief: Develop ‘Drones-for-Good’ protocol permitting rapid repurposing of MAID assets for flood mapping and vaccine drops, enhancing public acceptance.
THE CONCLUSION:
MAID has lowered the cost of coercion and accelerated the tempo of conflict. India’s twin challenge is to harness the technology for credible deterrence while championing responsible AI-in-war norms. A balanced strategy that mixes hard kinetic preparedness with soft-norm entrepreneurship can convert a destabilising disruption into a lever of strategic advantage.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Q. The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by our adversaries across the borders to ferry arms/ammunitions, drugs, etc, is a serious threat to the internal security. Comment on the measures being taken to tackle this threat. 2023
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q. The democratisation of precision warfare through inexpensive missiles, artificial intelligence and drones (MAID) poses new challenges to India’s security doctrine. Analyse.
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