THE CONTEXT: The summer of 2025 in India has been marked by an unusual meteorological phenomenon, characterized by cooler-than-normal temperatures and above-average rainfall across large parts of the country. Unlike the typical pre-monsoon season (March to May), which is synonymous with scorching heatwaves and dry conditions, this year has witnessed a significant deviation from climatological norms.
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- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported no record-breaking temperatures and limited heatwave occurrences, with May being exceptionally wet due to frequent thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and hailstorms.
- This anomaly, driven by frequent western disturbances and moisture incursions from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, has profound implications for India’s climate resilience, agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness.
CURRENT SCENARIO: KEY FEATURES OF SUMMER 2025
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- Temperature Trends: The IMD has noted that maximum temperatures across India have remained within or below normal ranges, with no significant heatwave episodes in the Core Heatwave Zone (CHZ), which spans Central, North, and Peninsular India.
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- While short heatwave spells occurred in parts of Maharashtra, Odisha, Gujarat, and Rajasthan in April, the overall absence of prolonged heatwaves is unprecedented. For instance, May 2025 recorded heatwave conditions on only one day (May 1) in southwest Rajasthan, a stark contrast to the usual 40–45°C temperatures in North and Northwest India.
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- Rainfall Patterns: The pre-monsoon season has been unusually wet, particularly in Southern Peninsular and Central India. Northwest India experienced a 20% rainfall surplus in the week of May 2–8, followed by a 35% surplus in the week of May 8–14.
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- Thunderstorms, accompanied by squally winds and hailstorms, have been reported across Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, Delhi, and Kerala, driven by consecutive western disturbances and moisture influx from the seas.
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- Monsoon Onset: The southwest monsoon is expected to arrive early, with the IMD forecasting its onset over Kerala on May 27, 2025, five days ahead of the normal date. This early onset, coupled with above-normal rainfall projections (104% of the long-period average), signals a potential shift in seasonal dynamics.
CAUSAL FACTORS: WHY IS SUMMER 2025 ATYPICAL?
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- Frequent Western Disturbances: Western disturbances, low-pressure systems originating in the Mediterranean Sea, have been unusually active and have traversed lower latitudes in 2025. Four episodes occurred in March and April, followed by two in May, leading to widespread rainfall and cooler temperatures in Northwest and Central India. These disturbances have disrupted the typical heat buildup in the pre-monsoon season.
- Moisture Incursion: Continuous moisture influx from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea has interacted with western disturbances, triggering thunderstorms and thundershowers. This has lowered maximum temperatures by 5–7°C post-thunderstorm events, a phenomenon observed across West, Central, and Eastern India.
- Global Climate Variability: The interplay of global warming and climate patterns, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transitions, may have contributed to the observed anomalies. While neutral ENSO conditions are expected in 2025, residual effects of climate variability could be influencing regional weather patterns.
- Local Factors: Urban heat island effects have been mitigated in some regions due to increased cloud cover and rainfall, while agricultural practices and soil moisture levels have influenced local microclimates.
SIGNIFICANCE: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA
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- Agriculture: The wetter pre-monsoon season has benefited rain-fed agriculture in Southern and Central India, potentially boosting kharif crop sowing. However, excessive rainfall and hailstorms pose risks to standing crops in Northwest India, necessitating robust crop insurance and early warning systems.
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- Water Resources: Above-normal rainfall has replenished reservoirs and groundwater levels in some regions, but flash floods and waterlogging in urban areas highlight the need for improved drainage systems and watershed management.
- Public Health: The absence of prolonged heatwaves has reduced heat-related illnesses, but thunderstorms and lightning strikes have caused fatalities, underscoring the need for lightning-safe infrastructure and public awareness campaigns.
- Energy Demand: Cooler temperatures have lowered electricity demand for cooling, providing temporary relief to India’s power grid. However, the transition to monsoon season requires adaptive energy planning to manage fluctuations in hydropower generation.
POLICY FRAMEWORK AND GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES
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- IMD’s Seasonal Forecasting: The IMD’s accurate prediction of the early monsoon onset and pre-monsoon rainfall trends reflects advancements in numerical weather prediction models and satellite-based monitoring.
- National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA): The NDMA’s guidelines on heatwaves, thunderstorms, and lightning emphasize early warning systems, community preparedness, and infrastructure resilience.
- Jal Shakti Abhiyan: This program promotes water conservation and rainwater harvesting, which are critical for managing excess rainfall and preventing waterlogging.
- Climate-Resilient Agriculture: Schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY) and Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana (PKVY) support farmers in adapting to changing weather patterns through micro-irrigation and organic farming.
STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES:
1. Now-casting Gap – Only 347 of 766 districts have Doppler Radar coverage, limiting real-time thunderstorm alerts for lightning-prone belts of Odisha and Jharkhand.
2. Hydro-Met Convergence – Reservoir rule-curves are not dynamically linked to IMD’s sub-seasonal rainfall forecasts, leading to either premature spill or conservative storage.
3. Urban Pluvial Flooding – Less than 6 % of the Smart-Cities Mission budget is earmarked for storm-water drainage, despite rising cloudburst frequency (Council on Energy, Environment and Water analysis, 2024).
4. Thunderstorm Casualty Insurance – Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana covers hail damage to crops but excludes asset loss from convective windstorms.
5. State-Centre Data Silos – Local bodies collect high-resolution rain-gauge data that rarely feeds back into IMD’s gridded datasets, hampering machine-learning-based forecast improvements.
THE WAY FORWARD:
| Pillar | Action | Rationale & Implementation |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Hyper-local Hydro-Met Grid | Install 1 automatic weather station per 25 km² in Core Heat-Wave Zone under Public-Private-Partnership; integrate feeds into IMD’s Meghdoot API. | Enhances thunderstorm now-casting and crop-stage advisories. |
| 2. Dynamic Reservoir Operations | Link Central Water Commission’s e-SWIS gate management portal with IMD’s sub-seasonal ensemble runs; trial run in Narmada and Krishna basins. | Minimises flood-drought paradox under erratic pre-monsoon spells. |
| 3. Urban Storm-water Audit | Make ‘Blue-Green Infrastructure Index’ a prerequisite for Smart-City funds; rank ULBs on per-capita drainage capacity. | Aligns urban design with rising cloudburst intensity. |
| 4. Parametric Thunderstorm Insurance | IRDAI sandbox pilot for index-based cover triggered by IMD’s ‘severe thunderstorm’ advisories; leverage Bharat BillPay for instant payouts. | Transfers risk from households/small businesses to capital markets. |
| 5. Climate-Responsive Heat Action 2.0 | Upgrade HAP triggers from absolute temperature to ‘Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature’; include mandatory gender-segmented shelters and midday-meal menu tweaks for hydration. | Accounts for high humidity episodes even when maximum temperatures are moderate. |
THE CONCLUSION:
Summer 2025 underlines the fluidity of India’s pre-monsoon climate regime: cooler days and wetter weeks can co-exist with pockets of humidity stress and lightning fatalities. Mainstreaming high-resolution data, adaptive infrastructure and risk-transfer instruments will convert such variability from a hazard into an opportunity for resilient development.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Q. How far do you agree that the behavior of the Indian monsoon has been changing due to humanizing landscapes? Discuss.
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q. The pre-monsoon season of 2025 has been marked by suppressed heat-wave activity but unusually high convective rainfall over Central and Peninsular India. Explain.
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