THE CONTEXT: The post-World War II international order, underpinned by U.S. leadership and institutions like the United Nations and NATO, is experiencing unprecedented strain. The resurgence of great power competition, particularly among the U.S., China, and Russia, has led to a fragmentation of global governance structures. This “Axis of Upheaval” seeks to challenge Western dominance and reshape international norms to align with its strategic interests.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
For seven decades the United States underwrote a liberal order built on the UN, Bretton Woods institutions and, later, the WTO. That architecture now looks frayed:
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- Global growth is losing steam—the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook pegs expansion at 2.8 % this year and 3 % next, a combined downgrade of 0.8 percentage points, largely because tariff battles and policy surprises are scaring investors .
- The U.S. has embraced tariffs as a foreign-policy tool. A White House memo in February ordered “reciprocal” duties on a sweeping range of imports; markets are bracing for still higher barriers .
- China and Russia are pursuing their own playbooks. Beijing’s Belt-and-Road credit lines and Moscow’s Ukraine offensive both chip away at Western influence.
- Institutions meant to settle disputes are paralysed. Washington is again blocking judges to the WTO Appellate Body and, in March, froze its financial contribution to the organisation
WHY SO MUCH TURBULENCE?
| Driver | Manifestations | Recent proof |
|---|---|---|
| Leader-centric disruption | Major powers no longer hide disagreements behind polite communiqués; they announce them on social media and back them with sanctions or troops. | U.S. “tariff blitz”, Russia’s Ukraine war, China’s ship manoeuvres near Taiwan |
| Multilateral fatigue | Forums look outdated, slow, or biased—so countries bypass them. | Growth of minilateral clubs such as AUKUS, IPEF, I2U2 |
| Tech & trade decoupling | Competing tech stacks and supply chains raise costs and magnify mistrust. | Semiconductor “friend-shoring”; Foxconn-HCL’s planned chip plant in Uttar Pradesh |
| Hybrid threats | Cyber-attacks, deepfakes and disinformation create a 24×7 grey zone between war and peace. | Repeated ransomware strikes on power and payments networks worldwide |
WHERE ARE THE FLASHPOINTS?
West Asia
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- Gaza: The death toll has crossed 52,000 as the cease-fire collapsed in March 2025.
- Iran–Israel shadow boxing: Talk of pre-emptive strikes over Tehran’s nuclear programme keeps oil markets jittery.
Indo-Pacific
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- Taiwan Strait: Chinese aerial incursions are now almost daily; U.S. naval patrols respond in kind.
- South China Sea & Indian Ocean: China’s submarine deployments have broadened beyond its “nine-dash line”, extending into the eastern Indian Ocean.
South Asia
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- Kashmir: The 22 April attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 tourists pushed India–Pakistan relations to a fresh low.
- Afghanistan & Pakistan: Islamic State franchises have migrated from West Asia, staging attacks from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa to Kabul.
WHY INDIA CANNOT STAY ON THE SIDELINES
1. Economy under crossfire
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- Tariff wars dent export markets when India wants to ride a manufacturing wave.
- Yet strategic decoupling also creates openings: New Delhi’s ambitious Semiconductor Mission—and joint ventures such as Foxconn-HCL—aim to capture fleeing supply chains.
2. Security in two theatres
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- A live Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China and a volatile Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan stretch resources.
- Hybrid attacks—including cross-border cyber intrusions into UPI rails—blur the civil-military boundary.
3. Diplomatic balancing act
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- India sits in the Quad with the U.S. even as it chairs BRICS+ forums that include Russia and China.
- It champions Global-South causes—such as debt relief and vaccine equity—while wooing Western capital.
4. Climate & water stress
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- Himalayan glacier melt and Indus-treaty rancour could turn water into a weapon.
5. Opportunity in defence exports
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- Record defence sales—₹23,622 crore (≈ US $ 2.76 bn) in FY 2024-25—provide leverage as well as jobs at home.
THE WAY FORWARD:
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- Re-energize Multilateral Reform: Lead a coalition to revive the WTO Appellate Body and advocate for United Nations Security Council (UNSC) expansion, reflecting the External Affairs Minister’s NORMS (New Orientation for a Reformed Multilateral System) doctrine.
- Practice “Smart-Power” Diplomacy: Integrate hard power initiatives, such as BrahMos missile exports and coastal radar networks, with soft power endeavors like the Digital Public Infrastructure packages and the Vaccine Maitri 2.0 program. This dual approach enhances India’s strategic influence while fostering goodwill, especially in the Global South.
- Achieve Technological Sovereignty: Accelerate the establishment of semiconductor fabrication units, secure critical mineral supplies, and integrate the ₹10,300-crore AI Mission with indigenous hardware development. Reducing dependency on foreign technology is crucial for national security and economic resilience.
- Build a Water-Climate Peace Corridor: Propose an Indus-Ganga Climate Adaptation Corridor involving India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh, aligning with the UN Water Action Decade. Collaborative water management can serve as a confidence-building measure, reducing regional tensions and promoting sustainable development.
- Harden Critical Infrastructure: Establish a National Critical Infrastructure Protection Centre and conduct annual “Bharat Cyber Shield” red team drills to assess and enhance cybersecurity measures. Protecting critical information infrastructure is essential to national security, especially amid increasing cyber threats. The National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Centre (NCIIPC) has been designated as the national nodal agency for critical infrastructure protection.
- Anchor Growth in Inclusion: Utilize the latest Multidimensional Poverty Index to identify and address health and nutrition gaps, ensuring that economic growth translates into tangible benefits for all sections of society. The NITI Aayog’s National Multidimensional Poverty Index provides a comprehensive framework to assess and address various dimensions of poverty.
THE CONCLUSION:
The transition from a rules-based international order to a more fragmented and multipolar world presents both challenges and opportunities for India. By adopting a nuanced and proactive approach, India can not only safeguard its national interests but also contribute to shaping a more equitable and stable global order.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Q. “The USA is facing an existential threat in the form of a China, that is much more challenging than the erstwhile Soviet Union.” Explain. 2021
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q. In the backdrop of rising global geopolitical fragmentation and weakening multilateralism, Analyze India’s strategic options to safeguard its national interests while contributing to global stability.
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