UNDERSTANDING INDIA’S CHINA CONUNDRUM

THE CONTEXT: India-China relations witnessed a cautious thaw in late 2024 with the announcement of a Border Patrolling Agreement ahead of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, yet underlying strategic mistrust persists, as reflected in China’s 7.2% hike in its 2025 defence budget—nearly thrice that of India—and growing military assertiveness across the Himalayas and the Indo-Pacific. Simultaneously, China is intensifying its geopolitical outreach in India’s neighbourhood, notably in Bangladesh and Africa, challenging India’s strategic depth and regional influence.

THE BACKGROUND: DENG XIAOPING ERA (1978–1992)

• • Deng’s strategic vision centered around economic modernization and internal consolidation.
  • The Four Modernizations (agriculture, industry, science and technology, defense) became the bedrock of state policy.
  • Low-profile diplomacy was emphasized to prevent strategic entanglements — reflecting China’s inward focus post-Mao era.
  • China joined WTO (2001) later as a culmination of reforms initiated by Deng, enabling its peaceful rise as an economic power.

CURRENT SCENARIO: XI JINPING’S STRATEGIC DOCTRINE

• • Xi’s tenure (2013–present) represents a significant ideological shift, encapsulated in the “Chinese Dream of national rejuvenation.”
  • Assertiveness on territorial sovereignty, military modernization under the PLA reform agenda, and global institutional engineering (e.g., BRI, AIIB) reflect China’s aspiration for multipolarity with Chinese characteristics.
  • Key elements:
    • “Wolf-warrior diplomacy”
    • Military assertiveness in South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and LAC
    • Reclaiming ‘lost’ territories based on Qing Dynasty frontiers—an echo of revanchist nationalism.
    • Institutionalization of Xi Jinping Thought in CCP’s constitution (2017)

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: REALISM AND CIVILIZATIONAL STATECRAFT

• • China’s trajectory aligns with the realist paradigm in international relations: power maximization, strategic hedging, and pursuit of national interest.
  • Simultaneously, it invokes a civilizational narrative, framing itself as a ‘victim of Western imperialism’ seeking to restore rightful stature.
  • Drawing from Samuel Huntington’s civilizational thesis, China positions itself not just as a state actor but as a civilizational force.

HISTORICAL RESONANCE AND STRATEGIC PSYCHOLOGY

• • The Century of Humiliation (1839–1949) is central to China’s nationalist consciousness.
  • Opium Wars, loss of sovereignty to European and Japanese powers, and the fragmentation of Chinese territory are mobilized in state propaganda.
  • “Tianxia” worldview: a traditional Chinese concept implying hierarchical global order with China at the center — now subtly shaping Xi’s foreign policy.

INDIA-CHINA INTERFACE: STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

BORDER CONFLICTS AND STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY

The India-China border has been a theatre of episodic escalations and calibrated assertiveness, most notably in:

• • Depsang (2013): PLA intrusion into Indian territory in Ladakh, highlighting ambiguity in LAC perception.
  • Doklam (2017): A rare tri-junction standoff involving Bhutan, signaling India’s resolve to defend strategic vulnerabilities.
  • Galwan (2020): First fatal clash in 45 years—20 Indian soldiers martyred—marking a sharp inflection in bilateral ties.
  • Yangtse (2022): Renewed aggression in Arunachal Pradesh reflecting Beijing’s intent to keep multiple flashpoints active.

• • These incidents embody China’s “salami slicing” strategy—gradual territorial assertion without provoking full-scale war. This aligns with strategic ambiguity, leveraging terrain, timelines, and political distractions.

MILITARY ASYMMETRY: A GROWING CONCERN

• • China’s 2025 Defence Budget: $245 billion (approx. 1.6% of GDP) vs India’s ~$78.7 billion (≈2% of GDP) as per Budget 2025-26.
  • According to SIPRI (2024): China expanded its nuclear arsenal to ~410 warheads (+100 from 2023), while India maintains a policy of credible minimum deterrence.
  • PLA Deployment: ~60,000 troops in Eastern Ladakh with high-altitude equipment: surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), tanks, and artillery.
  • Integrated Joint Command structure of PLA enhances battlefield mobility compared to India’s more compartmentalized military architecture.

STRATEGIC INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

• • China has invested in dual-use infrastructure in border regions:
    • G219 Highway: Critical arterial route connecting Tibet and Xinjiang.
    • Airbases in Ngari Gunsa, Hotan, Kashgar with hardened shelters and expanded runways.
  • Model border villages along Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim claimed by Beijing as “Xiaokang (well-off) settlements” — often military-dominated.
  • India’s countermeasures: Vibrant Villages Programme, BRO expansion, and advanced landing grounds (e.g., Nyoma).

TECHNOLOGY AND HYBRID WARFARE DOMINANCE

• • AI and Quantum Edge:
    • PLA Strategic Support Force (SSF) integrates space, cyber, and electromagnetic spectrum warfare.
    • China’s leadership in quantum communication (Micius satellite) and AI-enabled battlefield systems.
  • Cyber Intrusions: Targeting Indian critical infrastructure (e.g., NTPC, Mumbai grid blackout 2020 – suspected China-origin malware).
  • India’s response:
    • National Cyber Security Strategy (pending clearance)
    • Establishment of Defence Cyber Agency and Quantum Mission (2023)

RECENT BORDER MANAGEMENT INITIATIVES (2024–25)

• • India-China Border Patrolling Agreement (2024):
    • Agreement to resume pre-2020 patrolling protocols in Depsang, Demchok.
    • Announced just before BRICS Summit, Kazan (2024)—seen as diplomatic signaling.
  • 33rd WMCC Meeting (March 2025):
    • Reiterated disengagement and reactivation of Special Representatives (SR) dialogue mechanism.
  • Yet, no clear roadmap for LAC clarification or boundary delineation.

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE AND GREAT POWER COMPETITION

• • India’s Alignment:
    • Deepening cooperation with QUAD, I2U2, and Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)—anchored in rules-based order.
    • Malabar Exercises, logistics pacts (LEMOA, BECA) enhancing interoperability with U.S. and allies.
  • China’s Counter-Moves:
    • Leveraging BRI, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and its proximity to Russia.
    • Strategic neutrality on Ukraine, indirect support to Russia, and assertive diplomacy in Global South.

CHINA’S EXPANDING REGIONAL INFLUENCE

1. Outreach in India’s Neighbourhood

• • Bangladesh Focus: Following the fall of the Sheikh Hasina regime, the new Chief Adviser’s visit to China in March (2025) indicates Dhaka’s pivot towards Beijing.
  • Implications for India: This development amplifies China’s presence on India’s eastern flank, necessitating renewed diplomatic vigilance.

 

2. Wider Geopolitical Developments

• • Energy Security: China’s aggressive pursuit of nuclear energy resources in Africa outpaces India’s moves in the same domain.
  • Multilateral Engagements: China’s proactive diplomacy in Asia, Africa, and beyond seeks to counterbalance U.S. and Indian influence.

 

3. Maintaining a Balance

• • India-U.S. Partnership: Growing alignment with Washington must be complemented by strong regional diplomacy.
  • Mitigating China’s Influence: Deeper ties with neighboring states and cultivating strategic partnerships in West Asia and Africa become crucial.

POTENTIAL SHIFTS IN THE GLOBAL ORDER

1. Unpredictable Partnerships

• • U.S.-China Equation: A sudden realignment between Washington and Beijing cannot be ruled out.
  • Consequences for India: Any U.S.-China ‘deal’ could undermine Indian interests, forcing India to recalibrate its strategic postures.

 

2. Emerging Multipolarity vs. Rising Unipolarity

• • Declining Faith in Rules-Based Order: The erosion of global norms may empower states with decisive military and technological heft.
  • India’s Strategic Autonomy: Necessitates forging multi-directional alliances while retaining independent policy space.

THE WAY FORWARD:

• • Institutionalizing Assertive Deterrence through Strategic Modernization: India must enhance its deterrence posture through integrated theatre commands and border-specific ISR capabilities like UAVs and satellites. This ensures faster response, deeper surveillance, and optimized resource deployment in friction zones such as Eastern Ladakh.
  • Technology Sovereignty and Next-Gen Warfare Preparedness: India needs to leapfrog in critical technologies like AI, quantum computing, and cyber defense by strengthening the National Quantum Mission and public-private R&D synergies. This offsets China’s lead in dual-use tech and enhances strategic resilience across domains. Emulating models like Israel’s innovation-led defense system can enable India to become a tech exporter, not just importer.
  • Strategic Autonomy with Layered Diplomatic Geometry: India must pursue a balanced approach through diversified alignments—QUAD, SCO, BRICS—while safeguarding its decision-making independence. Multipolar engagement, rooted in Panchsheel and NAM legacies, protects India from being caught in binary strategic rivalries. This “alignment without entanglement” strategy, ensures flexibility amid global churn.
  • Atmanirbharta in Defence: To reduce import dependency and build indigenous capacity, India must scale up the iDEX framework and simplify Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP 2020). This aligns with recommendations from the Kargil Review Committee, ensuring long-term logistics and operational self-reliance. Indigenous systems like Pinaka MBRL demonstrate India’s capability to innovate for strategic autonomy.
  • Recalibrating Neighbourhood and Extended Regional Diplomacy: India must deepen regional partnerships through BBIN, BIMSTEC, and new corridors like IMEC to reclaim strategic space lost to China’s BRI. Reinvigorating bilateral ties with Bangladesh, Nepal, and Maldives anchors India’s leadership in South Asia.
  • Information Dominance and Cognitive Deterrence Architecture: India should establish a dedicated centre for information warfare to counter China’s psychological operations and misinformation strategies. A coordinated StratCom Grid can strengthen public diplomacy and prevent perception-based destabilization in border or digital domains.

THE CONCLUSION:

India and China’s interplay, rooted in their civilizational trajectories and present-day contestations, remains a defining feature of Asian geopolitics. While diplomatic thaws and patrolling agreements offer some respite, India must maintain strategic vigilance. Rapid Chinese militarization, deepening ties with India’s neighbors, and unpredictable global alliances highlight the need for proactive policy measures. Balancing robust defence preparedness with nuanced diplomatic engagement will be critical for ensuring India’s strategic autonomy and safeguarding its long-term security interests.

UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:

Q. The West is fosterin‰g India as an alternative to reduce dependence on China’s supply chain and as a strategic ally to counter China’s political and economic dominance.’ Explain this statement with examples. 2024

MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:  

Q. The evolution of China’s strategic posture poses unprecedented challenges to India’s national security and regional diplomacy. Discuss the changing dynamics of India-China relations.

SOURCE:

 https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/understanding-indias-china-conundrum/article69432301.ece

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