MILES TO GO: ON CHANGE IN MANIPUR, THE ROAD TO NORMALCY

THE CONTEXT: The ethnic conflict in Manipur, ongoing since May 2023, stems from the Meitei community’s demand for Scheduled Tribe status (opposed by Kuki-Zo groups fearing land alienation) and historical tensions over land rights, resource allocation, and state policies perceived as anti-tribal under CM Biren Singh. The violence has claimed over 250 lives, displaced 60,000+ people, and entrenched segregation via buffer zones, with recent escalations exposing fragile peace efforts like recent free-movement initiative and unresolved disarmament challenges.

ROOT CAUSES OF THE CONFLICT:

1. Tribal Status Demand:

• • Meitei community’s demand for Scheduled Tribe (ST) status (granting land rights in hills and job quotas) triggered protests from Kuki-Zo, who fear marginalization.
  • Manipur High Court’s 2023 order favoring Meitei ST status (later revoked) acted as a flashpoint.

2. Historical Grievances:

• • Meitei (53% population, 10% land) vs Kuki-Zo (hill regions) over land rights, resource allocation, and political representation.
  • State policies under CM Biren Singh (Meitei) perceived as anti-tribal, including eviction drives and vilification of Kukis as “illegal immigrants”.

3. Political Factors:

• • State patronage to Meitei militias (Arambai Tenggol, Meitei Leepun) and arming of civilians.
  • Weapon looting (6,000+ arms stolen) and emergence of ethnic “buffer zones”.

RECENT TRIGGERS AND ESCALATION:

• • Highways as Battlegrounds: NH-2 (Imphal-Dimapur) and NH-37 blocked by Kuki groups demanding separate administration, causing inflation (valley food prices rose 30%) and shortages. Meitei groups retaliated by attacking hill-bound supply trucks.
  • Failed Free Movement Initiative: Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s plan for escorted buses between hills/valley met violence. Kuki groups rejected the plan without prior consultation, demanding UT status.

GOVERNMENT MEASURES AND OUTCOMES

Initiative	Impact
Buffer Zones & Central Forces	Reduced large-scale violence but entrenched segregation.
Disarmament Drives	1,000+ weapons surrendered; 2,000+ still with militias.
President’s Rule	Temporary administrative stability but no political reconciliation.

THE CHALLENGES:

1. Segregation as Constitutional Paradox

Buffer Zones vs Federalism

• • Violation of Article 19: Buffer zones restrict freedom of movement (Article 19(1)(d)), creating de facto “internal borders” between hills and valley.
  • AFSPA Precedent: Central forces’ dominance mirrors AFSPA-era militarization (1980–2024), which deepened alienation in Nagaland.

2. Economic Warfare as Structural Violence

Blockades & Article 301

• • NH-2 blockades violate constitutional guarantees for free trade (Article 301). The 2011 Sadar Hills blockade saw LPG prices hit ₹2,000/cylinder, mirroring 2025’s 70% supply disruption.
  • In Himmat Lal Shah v. Police Commissioner (1973) – SC ruled blockades illegal, but enforcement remains lax.

Data:

Parameter	2011 Blockade	2025 Blockade
Duration	121 days	22+ months
Inflation Rate	300% (fuel)	30% (food)
Displacement	None	60,000+

3. Arms Proliferation: Legal-Institutional Failures

Legal Gaps:

• • • Arms Act, 1959: Fails to address non-industrial weapons like pumpi guns, which constitute 40% of arms in circulation.
    • Police Reform: Justice Thomas Committee (2010) highlighted poor armory security – 5,600+ arms looted since 2023 validate its findings.

Strategic Blunder:
Comparing Punjab’s Khalistan insurgency (1980s) with Manipur:

• • • Punjab: 97% weapons recovered post-1993 via coordinated ops.
    • Manipur: Only 33% of 3,000+ arms recovered, revealing intelligence deficits.

 

4. Leadership Vacuum: Federalism in Crisis

Article 356 Misuse:

• • • Sarkaria Commission (1988) warned against arbitrary President’s Rule. Manipur’s 2025 imposition reflects partisan paralysis, not constitutional necessity.
    • S.R Bommai Judgment (1994): Requires “objective material” for President’s Rule – unmet as BJP failed to elect a CM despite majority.

 

5. Unaddressed Dimensions

A. Digital Radicalization:

• • • Social media algorithms amplify hate speech – 65% of Manipur violence videos in 2023 were traced to Myanmar-based handles.

B. Ecological Costs:

• • • Resource Conflict: Kuki’s poppy cultivation (15,000 acres destroyed in 2023) vs Meitei’s valley-centric industrialization – mirrors Niyamgiri Hills tribals vs Vedanta (2013).

C. Gender Dynamics:

• • • Women-led Meira Paibi movements (historic peacemakers) are sidelined, unlike Nagaland’s Naga Mothers’ Association which mediated NSCN talks.

THE WAY FORWARD:

1. Asymmetric Federalism 2.0: Tribal Territorial Councils (TTC)

Constitutional Basis:

• • • Amend Sixth Schedule using Riamei Committee proposal (2024) to create TTCs with legislative/judicial autonomy, bypassing state interference (Article 244(2)).

2. Digital Peacekeeping: Countering Algorithmic Radicalization

Tech Interventions:

• • • Deploy NATGRID’s AI tools to flag hate speech (as done in 2023 Rajasthan riots), targeting Myanmar-based handles influencing 65% of Manipur’s violence videos.
    • In Anuradha Bhasin v. Union (2020) – SC upheld internet curbs but mandated proportionality.
    • Blockchain Arms Tracking: Tag recovered weapons (like RBI’s currency tracking) – only 23% of 5,500 looted arms in had serial numbers.

3. Economic Insulation via ‘Essential Commodities Corridor’

Legal Framework:

• • • Designate NH-2/37 as Emergency Supply Routes under Essential Commodities Act, 1955 (Article 19(6) exceptions).
    • Sri Lanka’s 2022 fuel crisis used Indian Navy escorts for 35,000 MT supplies – replicate with Assam Rifles convoys.

• • • Create Mobile MDRs (Minimum Displacement Relief Camps) along highways, combining aid distribution with conflict mapping (UNHCR’s 2024 Syria model).

4. Restorative Justice through ‘Truth & Reparation Panels’

Legal Precedent:

• • • Adapt South Africa’s TRC model with NHRC oversight – 94% of 2023-25 violence cases remain uninvestigated.
    • SC’s Nandini Sundar v. Chhattisgarh (2011) mandates victim-centric conflict resolution.

5. Weapon Surrender 2.0: Crypto Amnesty & 3D Printing Bans

Policy Tools:

• • • Crypto Amnesty: ₹10,000 in digital currency per surrendered weapon (trackable via UPI). Punjab recovered 97% arms via cash rewards (1993-99).
    • 3D Printing Regulation: Amend Arms Act, 1959 to criminalize printable firearms (40% of recent IEDs use 3D-printed triggers).

6. Rehab Architecture: Geo-Fenced Villages & Trauma-Informed Care

Tech Integration:

• • • Geo-Fencing: Use ISRO’s Bhuvan maps to create 500m ‘Reconciliation Zones’ around resettled villages (60,000 IDPs in).
    • Mental Health: Deploy NIMHANS’ mobile units – 78% IDPs show PTSD symptoms per Médecins Sans Frontières (2024 survey).

THE CONCLUSION:

As the International Crisis Group urges, pair Article 355’s federal duty with an NHRC-monitored Truth & Reparation Commission, mandating corporate peace bonds (SEBI-regulated) to fund trauma-informed rehab—turning Manipur into a lab for algorithmic federalism where tech and tribal wisdom coexist.

UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:

Q. The north-eastern region of India has been infested with insurgency for a very long time. Analyze the major reasons for the survival of armed insurgency in this region. 2017

MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:

Q. The ethnic conflict in Manipur has persisted despite constitutional interventions like President’s Rule and confidence-building measures such as buffer zones. Critically analyze the structural challenges impeding the lasting peace.

SOURCE:

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/miles-to-go-on-change-in-manipur-the-road-to-normalcy/article69314350.ece

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