THE CONTEXT: India’s Northeast has emerged as a critical geostrategic hub under India’s Act East Policy and Neighbourhood First Policy, serving as a land bridge to Southeast Asia and a gateway for regional connectivity. However, recent political instability in Bangladesh and Myanmar has disrupted key bilateral and regional projects, posing challenges to India’s strategic objectives.
STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF NORTHEAST INDIA
-
- Geopolitical Position: Borders five countries (Bangladesh, Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal, China) and serves as a conduit for trade with Southeast Asia.
- Policies Driving Development:
- Act East Policy: Enhances ties with ASEAN and Indo-Pacific nations.
- Neighbourhood First Policy: Prioritizes connectivity with Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Nepal.
- Economic Potential: Hosts critical infrastructure projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP) and India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway (IMT-TH).
BILATERAL CONNECTIVITY INITIATIVES
INDIA-BANGLADESH COLLABORATION
Key Projects:
-
- Port Access: Operational rights to Mongla Port (2024) and development of Khulna-Mongla rail link to reduce logistics costs.
- Rail Connectivity: Akhaura-Agartala rail link (supports Tripura’s trade) and proposed Gede-Darshana goods train route.
- BBIN Motor Vehicle Agreement: Aims to streamline sub-regional transport but remains suspended.
Recent Setbacks:
-
- Regime Change (2024): Political tensions under interim Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus halted projects like the Ashuganj Inland Port, impacting Tripura’s trade.
- Trade Decline: Exports to Bangladesh fell by 13.3% (Apr–Oct 2023); Benapole-Petrapole land ports (handling 30% trade) saw reduced activity.
- Transport Suspension: Maitree, Bandhan, and Mitali Express rail services suspended since July 2024.
INDIA-MYANMAR PARTNERSHIPS
Kaladan Multi-Modal Project:
-
- Components: Sittwe Port (operational since 2023), Paletwa-Zorinpui highway (delayed due to Arakan Army’s control and junta airstrikes).
- Challenges: Only 25% progress on Yar Gyi road section; unresolved land disputes in Mizoram.
India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway:
-
- Strategic Link: Proposed extension to Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam; 70% completed but delayed by ethnic tensions in Manipur and Myanmar’s instability.
- Alignment with IMEC: Part of India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor vision.
Regional Connectivity Frameworks
-
- BIMSTEC: Integrates Northeast with Bay of Bengal economies.
- BBIN Initiative: Stalled due to India-Bangladesh tensions and security concerns in Myanmar.
CHALLENGES TO CONNECTIVITY IN INDIA’S NORTHEAST:
1. Geopolitical Volatility: Strategic Partnerships in Flux
A. Bangladesh’s Political Shifts
-
- Regime Change Impact: The 2024 interim government under Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus halted key projects like the Ashuganj Inland Port and Khulna-Mongla rail link, disrupting Tripura’s trade potential.
- Trade Decline: India’s exports to Bangladesh fell by 13.3% (April–Oct 2023), while Benapole-Petrapole land ports (handling 30% trade) saw reduced activity.
- Diplomatic Stalemate: Anti-India rhetoric and suspension of cross-border rail services (Maitree Express, Bandhan Express) reflect strained ties, stalling sub-regional initiatives like the BBIN Motor Vehicle Agreement.
B. Myanmar’s Internal Conflict
-
- Arakan Army’s Dominance: Control over 15/18 townships in Rakhine State disrupted the Kaladan Multi-Modal Project, with only 25% progress on the Yar Gyi road section.
- Ethnic Tensions: The Zomi rebels’ control of the Kale-Kabaw valleys (Myanmar) threatens the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, critical for IMEC alignment.
- Policy Dilemma: India’s engagement with Myanmar’s junta and EAOs (Ethnic Armed Organizations) remains precarious, risking $8 billion in developmental investments.
2. Infrastructure Deficits: Delays and Design Flaws
A. Critical Project Delays
-
- Kaladan Corridor: The 109-km Paletwa-Zorinpui highway faces delays due to land disputes in Mizoram and junta airstrikes.
- Trilateral Highway: Only 70% completed; 69 bridges on the Tamu-Kalewa route require replacement, slowing ASEAN integration.
B. Last-Mile Connectivity Gaps
-
- Rail Networks: Northeast’s rail density is 4% of India’s total, with unresolved disputes stalling the Akhaura-Agartala link.
- Digital Divide: Internet penetration in NE is 43% (vs. national 55%), hindering tech-driven growth despite Budget 2025’s focus on digital panchayats.
3. Security Risks: Conflict Zones and Cross-Border Threats
A. Insurgency and Transnational Crime
-
- Drug Trafficking: Proximity to the Golden Triangle led to a 300% spike in heroin seizures in Manipur (2023–24).
- Arms Smuggling: NSCN-IM and ULFA-I exploit porous borders, with 70% of Manipur’s weapons sourced via Myanmar.
B. Refugee Crisis
-
- Myanmar Influx: Over 50,000 Chin refugees entered Mizoram post-2021 coup, straining resources and triggering ethnic tensions.
4. Governance and Policy Constraints
A. Constitutional Challenges
-
- Seventh Schedule: Infrastructure remains a Union responsibility, but state-level land acquisition disputes (e.g., Mizoram) delay projects.
- Article 355: Centre’s duty to protect states from “internal disturbances” remains tested in Manipur’s ethnic clashes.
B. Institutional Roadblocks
-
- NESIDS Funding: Only 40% of ₹81,395 crore (2022–26) allocated for roads and energy has been utilized.
- Bureaucratic Delays: Environmental clearances for the Sittwe Port took 8 years.
THE WAY FORWARD:
Diplomatic Recalibration:
-
- Revive Bilateral Ties with Bangladesh: Initiate Track 1.5 and Track 2 dialogues involving civil society, think tanks, and trade bodies to rebuild trust post-regime change. For instance, the USIP model of multi-track diplomacy has proven effective in bridging gaps in conflict-prone regions.
- Engage Myanmar’s Junta and EAOs: Adopt a “Dual Engagement Policy” to negotiate with both the junta and Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs). This approach is critical for safeguarding projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP) and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway (IMT-TH).
Infrastructure Resilience: Fast-Tracking Development:
-
- Modular Construction for Bridges: Deploy Class 70R modular steel bridges (as per GRSE-NHIDCL agreement) to expedite connectivity in remote areas. These can be erected within 30–45 days, ensuring quick operationalization.
- Leverage PM GatiShakti: Utilize its GIS-based monitoring system for real-time updates on infrastructure projects like Zokhawthar land port and Tamu-Kalewa Road.
Security and Border Management: Integrated Mechanisms:
-
- Strengthen Surveillance Along Borders: Establish multi-agency coordination centers under the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) to monitor cross-border smuggling and insurgent activities. The NCB’s revised guidelines advocate for anti-narcotics task forces at the state level.
- Address Root Causes of Ethnic Tensions: Implement community-led conflict resolution mechanisms, drawing inspiration from Assam’s peace accords with Bodo insurgents.
Economic Integration: Unlocking Regional Potential
-
- Operationalize BBIN Motor Vehicle Agreement (MVA): Expedite implementation to enhance seamless transport across Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal. The World Bank estimates a potential 172% increase in India’s exports to Bangladesh through improved connectivity.
- Special Economic Zones (SEZs): Accelerate operationalization of SEZs in Bangladesh offered to India, fostering cross-border trade.
Climate Resilience and Sustainability
-
- Green Infrastructure Development: Incorporate climate-resilient designs in projects like the Paletwa-Zorinpui Highway to withstand extreme weather events.
- Renewable Energy Corridors: Develop solar and wind energy projects along border areas to ensure sustainable power supply for infrastructure.
THE CONCLUSION:
India must champion ethical multilateralism by anchoring connectivity projects in climate-resilient digital corridors and leveraging its democratic ethos to mediate Myanmar’s crisis through ASEAN frameworks, ensuring the Northeast emerges as a beacon of sustainable geo-economics while upholding humanitarian imperatives for displaced communities.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Q. Analyze internal security threats and transborder crimes along Myanmar, Bangladesh and Pakistan borders including Line of Control (LoC). Also discuss the role played by various security forces in this regard. 2020
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q. Critically analyze the challenges posed by political instability in Bangladesh and Myanmar to India’s connectivity initiatives in the Northeast. Suggest measures to ensure the strategic objectives of the Act East Policy and Neighbourhood First Policy are not compromised.
SOURCE:
Spread the Word
