MYANMAR, MANIPUR, AND STRAINED BORDERS

THE CONTEXT: The military coup in Myanmar on February 1, 2021, led to widespread resistance and armed conflict, resulting in approximately 95,600 refugees entering India by December 31, 2024, with 73,400 arriving post-coup. This situation has prompted India to revise its border management strategies, including the recent modification of the Free Movement Regime (FMR) from 16 km to 10 km along the 1,643 km Indo-Myanmar border and the implementation of new border crossing regulations through 22 operational gates out of 43 planned crossing points.

IMPACT OF MYANMAR’S 2021 MILITARY COUP:

• • Civil Unrest and Armed Resistance: The coup led to the emergence of the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and alliances with Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs). These groups have adopted guerrilla warfare tactics to resist the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military). By 2024, the Tatmadaw had lost control over 86% of Myanmar’s territory, including key border areas near India. This has created ungoverned spaces as breeding grounds for insurgency and organized crime. The Tatmadaw’s indiscriminate use of force, including airstrikes and artillery bombardments on civilian areas, has resulted in over 5,000 civilian deaths since the coup.
  • Refugee Crisis and Humanitarian Challenges: The coup has displaced over three million people internally and externally. Approximately 95,600 refugees from Myanmar had fled to India, with Mizoram and Manipur being the most affected states. In Mizoram, shared ethnic ties with the Chin community have fostered empathy for refugees. However, in Manipur, concerns about demographic shifts have exacerbated ethnic tensions between Meiteis and Kukis.
  • Security Implications for Northeast India: The instability in Myanmar has allowed Indian insurgent groups like NSCN-K to regroup and operate from Myanmar’s ungoverned territories. This poses a direct threat to India’s internal security. The Golden Triangle region has seen a surge in drug trafficking due to the conflict. This has increased the flow of narcotics into Northeast India, complicating law enforcement efforts. Weak governance in Myanmar has facilitated arms smuggling and other transnational crimes along the Indo-Myanmar border.
  • Economic and Strategic Setbacks: The coup has stalled key infrastructure projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project. China has deepened its engagement with Myanmar by supporting EAOs and investing in strategic projects like the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. This threatens India’s strategic interests in the region.

CROSS-BORDER IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA:

• • Refugee Influx and Humanitarian Challenges: As of December 31, 2024, approximately 95,600 refugees from Myanmar had entered India, with 73,400 arriving post-coup. Refugees primarily include ethnic Chin, Sagaing residents, and Rohingya populations fleeing violence and persecution. States like Mizoram (40,000 refugees) and Manipur (8,250 refugees) have been most affected.
  • Humanitarian Concerns: Refugees face challenges such as lack of legal recognition, inadequate shelter, food insecurity, and limited access to education and healthcare. The principle of non-refoulement, which prohibits forced returns of refugees to danger zones, has been a contentious issue. Reports of forced deportations from Manipur have drawn criticism from human rights organizations.
  • Free Movement Regime (FMR) and Border Management: Introduced in 1968 to facilitate cross-border movement for communities with strong ethnic and familial ties. FMR initially allowed movement within a 40 km radius on either side of the border but was reduced to 16 km in 2004 and further to 10 km in 2024 due to security concerns. The restriction of FMR has disrupted traditional livelihoods dependent on cross-border trade. Ethnic communities view these restrictions as undermining historical ties and cultural exchanges.
  • Economic Impact on Border Trade: Border trade has significantly declined due to instability in Myanmar. Trade at official posts fell 48% between April and May 2024 compared to the previous year. India’s exports to Myanmar dropped from $807 million in 2022-23 to $670.4 million in 2023-24. The decline in trade has particularly impacted towns like Moreh in Manipur, once envisioned as gateways for India’s Act East Policy.

INTERNAL SECURITY CHALLENGES:

• • Ethnic Tensions: The refugee influx has been linked to allegations of illegal activities such as poppy cultivation and drug trafficking, further polarizing communities. Ignoring the ethnic sensitivities could fuel regionalist aspirations, undermining national integration.
  • Insurgent Group Cross-Border Threats: Myanmar’s ungoverned spaces have become sanctuaries for Indian insurgent groups like the NSCN-K and ULFA-I, which exploit the porous border for regrouping and launching attacks. The Golden Triangle region has seen a surge in drug trafficking post-coup. Arms smuggling through routes like Moreh (Manipur) has increased, with insurgents using Myanmar as a transit hub.
  • Border Management: The Indo-Myanmar border traverses dense forests and rugged terrain, making fencing logistically challenging. Only 10% of the planned fencing has been completed as of early 2025. Mizoram Chief Minister Lalduhoma opposed border fencing due to its potential impact on familial ties with Myanmar’s Chin state residents. This underscores the tension between security imperatives and socio-cultural realities.

THE WAY FORWARD:

• • Strengthen Bilateral Trade through Local Currency Mechanisms: The adoption of the Rupee-Kyat trade mechanism can reduce transaction costs by eliminating double currency conversions. This aligns with India’s broader push for rupee internationalization under the Reserve Bank of India’s Special Rupee Vostro Account (SRVA) framework.
  • Develop Alternative Trade Routes via Thailand and Bangladesh: Myanmar’s instability has disrupted traditional trade routes. Alternative corridors like the Sittwe-Chittagong-Sabroom-Agartala route can reduce transit time from four days to two. Leverage ASEAN frameworks to secure funding and technical support for completing the IMT Highway.
  • Address Humanitarian Concerns Through Infrastructure Development: Developing healthcare and education infrastructure near border areas can reduce refugee influx by meeting basic needs locally. Establish mobile healthcare units in refugee camps funded through international aid agencies like UNHCR.
  • Counter China’s Growing Influence in Myanmar: Increase economic investments in Myanmar’s infrastructure projects like industrial parks and SEZs near Rakhine State. Strengthen ties with Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) aligned with democratic forces to counterbalance China-backed groups. Advocate for federal democracy in Myanmar through diplomatic channels like BIMSTEC and ASEAN.

THE CONCLUSION:

The complex challenges stemming from Myanmar’s political crisis demand India’s innovative “3C Strategy” – Containment (of security threats through advanced border management), Cooperation (with ASEAN and regional stakeholders for diplomatic solutions), and Connection (through enhanced economic corridors and humanitarian assistance). While immediate measures like the modified FMR and biometric surveillance are crucial for border security, India’s long-term vision must focus on transforming the Indo-Myanmar border from a zone of conflict to a corridor of opportunity through sustainable development, democratic stability, and regional integration.

UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:

Cross-border movement of insurgents is only one of the several security challenges facing the policing of the border in North-East India. Examine the various challenges currently emanating across the India-Myanmar border. Also, discuss the steps to counter the challenges. 2019

MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:

“The ethnic tensions in Northeast India are intrinsically linked to cross-border dynamics with Myanmar.” In light of this statement, evaluate India’s border management strategies and suggest comprehensive solutions.

SOURCE:

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/myanmar-manipur-and-strained-borders/article69237984.ece