THE CONTEXT: Following the fall of the Awami League government, India-Bangladesh relations have strained due to rising anti-India sentiment, attacks on minorities, growing Islamist radicalism, and the Interim Government’s pursuit of closer ties with Pakistan, compounded by Sheikh Hasina’s presence in India and the demands for her extradition. India is adopting a “wait and watch” approach, balancing diplomacy and strategic engagement, hoping for rational leaders to emerge in Bangladesh who recognize the value of a strong relationship with New Delhi.
KEY CHALLENGES IN INDIA-BANGLADESH RELATIONS:
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- The Fall of the Awami League (AL) Government & Rise of Interim Govt: The collapse represents a setback for India’s Neighbourhood First policy. The circumstances are rooted in a complex interplay of factors. The rise of the Interim Government, ostensibly neutral, has created a power vacuum exploited by anti-India elements. This transition has destabilized the strategic equilibrium India sought to establish with a friendly AL regime.
- Anti-India Sentiments: A Multi-Faceted Challenge: This sentiment is not monolithic. It’s a complex mix of following factors:
- Historical baggage: Lingering resentment over perceived Indian ‘big brother’ attitude.
- Economic anxieties: Unease over trade imbalances and perceived exploitation of Bangladeshi resources.
- Religious polarization: Exploitation of religious fault lines by Islamist groups, portraying India as a Hindu-dominated power oppressing Muslims.
- Political opportunism: The Interim Government and opposition using anti-India rhetoric to consolidate support. The rise in anti-India sentiment is a worrying trend, undermining decades of goodwill built through cultural exchanges and economic cooperation.
- MEA efforts: It is vital to show that the MEA’s soft diplomacy efforts are vital to maintaining the relationship between the two countries.
- Attacks on Religious Minorities: The systemic targeting of Hindu minorities (vandalism of temples, forced conversions, land grabbing, and social ostracization) represents a grave human rights issue and a direct challenge to India’s secular credentials.
- Rise of Radical Islamist Groups: The increasing influence of groups like Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) is alarming. This rise is due to creating a permissive environment for these groups to operate. There is increased funding from Gulf countries and Pakistan. Reports suggest a significant increase in madrassas (religious schools) promoting extremist ideologies.
- Bangladesh-Pakistan Rapprochement: The Interim Government’s efforts to strengthen ties with Pakistan are strategically significant. This could reduce Indian influence in Bangladesh and increase Pakistani leverage in the region.
- Role of China: China may exploit the situation to expand its regional influence (string of pearls). India must proactively counter Pakistan’s influence by strengthening its ties with other regional players (Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Maldives).
- India’s Dilemma: Providing refuge to Sheikh Hasina is a complex decision with moral and strategic implications. Extradition is not an option. It would betray India’s democratic values and set a dangerous precedent. Maintaining Hasina’s silence is unsustainable, her political relevance hinges on her ability to engage with her supporters. Allowing her to speak out risks further straining relations.
INDIA’S POLICY OPTIONS AND STRATEGIES:
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- Efforts to Engage the Interim Government: India’s initial response, characterized by diplomatic engagement through the Indian ambassador and the Foreign Secretary’s visit, was a crucial first step. To maintain communication channels further and prevent a complete breakdown in bilateral ties, express concerns specifically regarding the treatment of minorities and the rise of Islamist radicalism.
- Strategic Use of Hasina’s Influence: Galvanizing the persecuted AL cadre base and creating pressure on the Interim Government. Provide a platform for a pro-India voice. Influence public opinion by shaping the narrative within Bangladesh and internationally.
- Strategic Patience: Adopt a “wait and watch” approach, allowing Bangladesh’s internal contradictions to play out while preparing for a more opportune moment.
- Strengthen Regional Alliances: Work with other regional players (Bhutan, Nepal, Maldives, and Sri Lanka) to promote stability and counter Pakistan’s influence.
- Focus on Soft Power: Strengthen people-to-people ties through cultural exchanges, educational programs, and economic cooperation. Partner with reputable Bangladeshi NGOs and think tanks to promote dialogue and address grievances. Utilize Track II dialogues (informal discussions involving academics, think tanks, and former officials) to build bridges with different political groups.
- Security Cooperation focusing on De-Radicalization: Establish a dedicated joint task force for real-time intelligence sharing on terrorist activities and radical groups. Support community-based de-radicalization programs in Bangladesh, targeting vulnerable youth. Enhance border surveillance through technology (drones, sensors) and joint patrolling to prevent illegal immigration and smuggling.
- Economic Diplomacy with Mutually Beneficial Projects: Invest in infrastructure projects that benefit both countries, such as improving connectivity (roads, railways, waterways) and developing energy infrastructure. Encourage Indian companies to invest in Bangladesh, creating jobs and boosting economic growth.
THE CONCLUSION:
India must exercise patience and strategic foresight, allowing Bangladesh to address its internal challenges while positioning itself as a reliable partner. By focusing on diplomacy, security, and economic cooperation, India can foster long-term stability and ensure rational leadership in Dhaka, which recognizes the value of strong ties with New Delhi.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Q. The protests in Shahbag Square in Dhaka in Bangladesh reveal a fundamental split in society between the nationalists and Islamic forces. What is its significance for India? 2013
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q. Critically analyze the current dynamics of India-Bangladesh relations and suggest a multi-pronged strategy for India to safeguard its strategic interests while fostering regional stability.
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