THE CONTEXT: The Chief Ministers of Andhra Pradesh (N. Chandrababu Naidu) and Tamil Nadu (M.K. Stalin) have expressed concerns over the proposed delimitation exercise scheduled for 2026. The delimitation process may reduce the number of parliamentary seats for southern states due to their advanced fertility transition and slower population growth. The 1976 freeze on delimitation is set to expire in 2026, necessitating a reassessment of parliamentary representation based on updated population figures.
THE BACKGROUND:
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- Fertility Transition LEADING TO North-South Divide: Kerala reached replacement fertility in 1988, followed by Tamil Nadu in 1993. The respective states’ Current Total Fertility Rates (TFR) are Kerala (1.8), Tamil Nadu (1.4), Andhra Pradesh (1.5), and Karnataka (1.7). Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan have higher fertility rates in the Northern States. Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have achieved replacement fertility as per NFHS-5 (2019-21).
- Historical Perspective on Population Control Measures: In the 1950s, India became the first country to adopt a state-sponsored family planning program. The First Five-Year Plan (1951-56) Initiated family planning, emphasizing natural contraceptive methods. The Second Five-Year Plan Focused on education, research, and a clinical approach. The Third Five-Year Plan (1961-66) introduced sterilization techniques and established the Family Planning Department. National Population Policy (1976) increased the legal age of marriage and introduced forced sterilization (later abandoned).
- Paradigm Shift: 1977: The Family Planning Department was renamed the Family Welfare Department, signaling a shift in approach. National Population Policy (2000) set objectives for population stabilization by 2045.
THE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:
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- Stages of Transition: India exhibits varied stages across states, from high fertility and mortality (Stage 1) to low fertility and mortality (Stage 4).
- Regional Variations: Southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu have reached Stage 4, while some northern states remain in Stage 2 or 3.
- Socioeconomic Factors: The theory posits that economic development, urbanization, and improved healthcare drive demographic changes.
THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE:
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- China’s One-Child Policy: Introduced in 1979, the policy reportedly prevented 400 million births, contributing to a decline in fertility rates from 2.8 in 1979 to 1.6 by the early 2020s. But by 2023, over 20% of China’s population was aged 60 or older, leading to a shrinking workforce and rising dependency burden. A preference for male children led to a skewed sex ratio, with 33.59 million more men than women by 2016. Millions of undocumented children faced challenges in accessing education and employment due to policy violations.
- Pro-Natal Policies in Japan: Japan’s fertility rate dropped to 1.3 in 2023, accompanied by record-low births of fewer than 800,000 annually. Policies under the Children’s Future Strategy (2023) will double child-related spending to 3.6 trillion yen annually (0.6% of GDP) by FY2028. Expanding childcare facilities for children aged 0–2, co-parenting initiatives, and financial support for child-rearing households. Despite interventions, cultural norms around work-life balance hinder fertility recovery.
- Pro-Natal Policies in South Korea: Monthly payments of up to 1 million won ($770) for families with infants under one year old. Expanded paternity leave benefits and housing welfare programs for young families. Long working hours and high childcare costs remain significant barriers. Existing incentives are insufficient to drastically change family planning behaviors.
- Pro-Natal Policies in Singapore: In 2001, Singapore introduced comprehensive pro-natalist policies, including paid maternity leave, childcare subsidies covering up to 75% of costs, tax rebates, and grants for flexible work arrangements. Despite these efforts, fertility rates declined from 1.41 in 2001 to 1.16 in 2018, underscoring financial incentives’ limited impact.
THE ISSUES:
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- Political Representation Imbalance: Southern states have achieved below-replacement fertility rates (TFR < 2.1) through effective population control measures. However, this success may lead to reduced representation in the Lok Sabha post-delimitation in 2026. For instance, Uttar Pradesh could gain up to 11 additional Lok Sabha seats, while Tamil Nadu and Kerala might lose 8 seats each.
- Federal Structure Concerns: Southern states contribute over 35% of India’s GDP while accounting for only 18% of the population, yet they may lose political leverage due to slower population growth. Delimitation based solely on population size could lead to resource allocation favoring populous but less developed regions, further alienating southern states. The 15th Finance Commission’s use of the 2011 Census for devolution of funds led to protests from southern states, which argued they were being penalized for achieving demographic goals earlier than their northern counterparts.
- Demographic Dividend vs. Aging Population: Kerala’s median age will rise to 42 by 2036, compared to Bihar’s 26. This aging population poses economic challenges such as labor shortages, increased healthcare costs, and a higher dependency ratio. As per NFHS-5 (2019–21), Bihar’s TFR remains at 3.0, indicating continued population growth. However, these states struggle with low human capital development, poor job creation, and underutilizing their workforce potential.
- Gender and Social Equity: Proposals to incentivize higher fertility rates could disproportionately burden women, undermining decades of progress in women’s empowerment. Encouraging larger families may exacerbate existing inequalities by placing additional financial burdens on economically weaker households. Countries like Japan and South Korea have shown that financial incentives alone cannot reverse fertility decline unless accompanied by structural reforms addressing gender equity and work-life balance.
THE WAY FORWARD:
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- Rethinking Political Representation in the Delimitation Exercise: The delimitation process must move beyond the sole criterion of population size to incorporate developmental indicators like literacy rates, economic contribution, and Human Development Index (HDI). Amend Articles 81 and 170 of the Constitution to include weighted representation criteria that balance population size with socio-economic achievements. The 42nd Constitutional Amendment (1976) froze delimitation to prevent penalizing southern states for successful population control. A similar approach could be institutionalized with updated metrics.
- Balancing Population Counts with Capability Characteristics: To determine representation, use a composite index combining population size, literacy rates, healthcare access, and economic output. Tamil Nadu’s literacy rate (82%) and Kerala’s healthcare achievements far exceed those of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, justifying a more nuanced representation model.
- Focus on Sustainable Population Rather Than Fertility Reversal: Adhere to the objectives of the National Population Policy (2000), which aims for a stable population by 2045 through sustainable family planning measures. Partner with organizations like UNFPA to leverage demographic data for evidence-based policymaking. For instance, UNFPA’s district-level projections can guide targeted interventions in high-fertility districts.
- Strengthening Women’s Empowerment: Address women’s personal reproduction costs by providing comprehensive maternal healthcare, financial incentives for child-rearing, and affordable childcare facilities. Ensure that women’s empowerment remains central to population policies.
- Leveraging Migration as a Demographic Equalizer: Encourage migration from northern states with surplus labor to southern states facing workforce shortages due to aging populations. Develop affordable housing, healthcare access, and skill development programs to integrate migrants into local economies.
- Strengthening Federal Coordination Mechanisms: Facilitate resource-sharing between high-performing southern states and lagging northern states. For instance, Tamil Nadu’s success in healthcare delivery can serve as a model for Uttar Pradesh. Establish a committee under NITI Aayog to guide population management strategies at national and sub-national levels.
THE CONCLUSION:
By rethinking political representation through constitutional reforms, focusing on sustainable population stabilization goals, empowering women, leveraging migration as a demographic equalizer, and strengthening federal coordination mechanisms, India can uphold its democratic values while ensuring equitable growth across all regions.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTIONS:
Q.1 What is the concept of a ‘demographic Winter’? Is the world moving towards such a situation? Elaborate. 2024
Q.2 Discuss the main objectives of Population Education and point out the measures to achieve them in India in detail. 2021
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q.1 Analyze the role of population stabilization policies like the National Population Policy (2000) in addressing these challenges. How can India balance demographic transitions with sustainable development goals?
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