THE CONTEXT: Chief Ministers of southern states, particularly N. Chandrababu Naidu of Andhra Pradesh and M.K. Stalin of Tamil Nadu have made controversial statements urging their constituents to have more children. These remarks stem from concerns about the potential political implications of changing demographics.
THE BACKGROUND: India’s demographic landscape has been evolving rapidly, with significant variations across regions:
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- The national Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen to 2.0, just below the replacement level of 2.15.
- Southern states achieved replacement-level fertility much earlier: Kerala (1988), Tamil Nadu (1993), Andhra Pradesh (2001), and Karnataka (2005).
- States like West Bengal, Maharashtra, Himachal Pradesh, and Punjab have also reached or fallen below replacement level.
- Only three states – Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand – have TFRs above replacement level.
THE ISSUES:
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- Declining Fertility Rates: India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has steadily declined over the past decades. From a high of 6.18 children per woman in 1950, it dropped to 2.0 in 2019-21. A recent study published in The Lancet projects that India’s TFR will decrease to 1.29 by 2050, well below the replacement level of 2.1.
- Demographic Dividend at Risk: The old-age dependency ratio in southern states is already high 15 (number of persons aged 60+ per 100 working adults aged 15-59). As fertility rates decline, the future workforce may shrink, potentially impacting economic growth. Fewer working-age individuals supporting a larger elderly population could stress pension systems.
- Political Representation: Despite contributing 35% to the national GDP with only 18% of the population, southern states may see their political clout diminish. Southern states argue that they are being penalized for successfully implementing family planning and achieving better developmental outcomes. The upcoming delimitation of parliamentary constituencies could significantly impact states with lower fertility rates:
- Andhra Pradesh may lose 5 Lok Sabha seats (from 25 to 20).
- Karnataka may lose 2 seats (from 28 to 26).
- Kerala’s representation could decrease from 20 to 14 seats.
- Tamil Nadu might lose 9 seats (from 39 to 30).
- In contrast, northern states with higher population growth rates will likely gain seats. For instance, Bihar’s representation could grow from 40 seats (7.36%) to 50 seats (9.21%) in a 543-seat Lok Sabha, or potentially 79 seats (9.31%) in an 848-seat scenario.
- Workforce Shortages: The 2018-19 Economic Survey anticipated that India’s working-age population growth would slow from 9.7 million per year during 2021-2031 to 4.2 million per year during 2031-2041. The “State of Working India” report noted a decrease in regular wage job creation since 2019, potentially signaling the end of India’s demographic dividend. Labour-intensive industries may face significant challenges as the workforce shrinks, potentially affecting key sectors of the Indian economy.
- Increased Healthcare Costs: India currently has only about 12 hospitals with geriatric wards, which is grossly insufficient for its elderly population of around 150 million. By 2050, India will have 319 million older adults, accounting for 20% of its population. Nearly half (45%) of India’s disease burden is expected to be borne by older adults by 2030. Conditions like dementia are projected to affect 13.4 million Indians by 2050, up from 4 million today. Households with elderly members spend less on other needs due to increased medical costs (₹2,948 per capita compared to ₹3,001 in households without elderly members).
- Pension System Strain: Only 27-30% of India’s elderly receive financial support through pensions, highlighting a massive coverage gap. Existing pension schemes like the Indira Gandhi National Old Age Pension Scheme provide minimal benefits, which are inadequate for basic needs. Over 88% of India’s workforce is not covered by any formal pension scheme5. Most depend on lifetime savings or family support.
THE CHALLENGES:
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- Balancing Regional Representation: States like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh may lose parliamentary seats due to their slower population growth, while northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are expected to gain significantly. This shift could alter the balance of power in Parliament, concentrating political influence in populous northern states and reducing the voice of southern states in national decision-making. For instance:
- Uttar Pradesh could see its representation rise from 80 to 126 seats in a 543-seat Lok Sabha.
- Tamil Nadu may see a marginal increase from 39 to 41 seats or even face reductions in specific scenarios.
- Addressing Concerns of States Implemented Family Planning Programs successfully: Southern leaders like Tamil Nadu’s M.K. Stalin have expressed concerns about being punished for achieving demographic stabilization, which was encouraged by national policies. These states contribute disproportionately to India’s GDP (e.g., Tamil Nadu contributes 9% with only 6% of the population) but risk losing political leverage in resource allocation decisions.
- Managing Potential Social and Economic Impacts of Changing Demographics: Kerala’s old-age dependency ratio is among the highest in India. Northern states with higher populations but poorer governance outcomes may demand greater central resources, potentially at the expense of more developed southern states.
- Balancing Regional Representation: States like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh may lose parliamentary seats due to their slower population growth, while northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are expected to gain significantly. This shift could alter the balance of power in Parliament, concentrating political influence in populous northern states and reducing the voice of southern states in national decision-making. For instance:
THE WAY FORWARD:
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- EXTENDING THE FREEZE ON DELIMITATION:
- Historical Context: The delimitation of parliamentary constituencies has been frozen since 1976 to prevent penalizing states that have successfully reduced their fertility rates6. This freeze was extended 2001 for another 25 years to maintain fairness and encourage population stabilization efforts.
- Current Debate: As the freeze approaches its end in 2026, there is a debate on whether to extend it further or explore alternative electoral systems, such as allocating seats based on vote share. Extending the freeze could prevent political imbalances from demographic shifts favoring northern states with higher fertility rates.
- Alternative approaches: Alternative allocation formulas that incorporate factors beyond population, such as economic contribution and governance quality, should be considered to ensure fair representation. Expanding the number of Lok Sabha seats to accommodate population growth without reducing representation for any state.
- Focusing on Accelerating Economic Growth in Lagging States: Boosting manufacturing can create job opportunities and absorb the workforce transitioning from agriculture. Partner with online platforms to develop micro-skilling programs relevant to the gig economy, empowering youth with in-demand skills for immediate job opportunities. Establish new-age EPZs focused on sustainability and technology, offering tax breaks and streamlined regulations to attract high-value manufacturing companies.
- Development Initiatives: Fostering the aspirational Districts Program with targeted interventions in underdeveloped regions to improve socio-economic indicators and infrastructure. Financial Sector Reforms for implementing reforms to meet capital requirements and support growth initiatives across sectors.
- Implementing Targeted Population Policies for High-Fertility States: Invest in education and empowerment programs for women, particularly in rural areas where early marriage and high fertility rates are prevalent. Enhance access to healthcare services, including maternal and child health care, to reduce infant mortality rates and encourage smaller family sizes. Strengthen family planning services in high-fertility states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh to address unmet needs.
- Promoting Inter-State Migration to Balance Labor Markets:
- Most migration is intra-state (88%), with only a small fraction (12%) being inter-state. As per the 2011 Census, India had approximately 41.4 million inter-state migrant workers, constituting about 12% of total internal migration.
- Migration allows for a more efficient allocation of labor, matching workers with regions that have higher demand for their skills. Implement nationwide schemes like the One Nation One Ration Card (ONORC) to ensure food security for migrants regardless of their location. Develop Affordable Rental Housing Complexes (ARHCs) in urban areas to provide secure and affordable housing for migrant workers.
- States like Kerala have implemented innovative welfare schemes for migrant workers, providing a model for inclusive policies that integrate migrants into local economies while safeguarding their rights.
- Ensure Transparency in the Census and Delimitation Processes: Involve local communities in the census process to enhance inclusivity and accuracy. Digital tools can help streamline the process and reduce human error. Establish an independent body to oversee the census and delimitation processes, ensuring transparency and accountability. Countries like Canada use independent commissions for electoral boundary reviews, ensuring transparency and public confidence.
- EXTENDING THE FREEZE ON DELIMITATION:
THE CONCLUSION:
A balanced approach is essential to address differential population growth, ensuring equitable representation and resource distribution across regions. Maintaining success in fertility rate reduction is crucial to sustain economic growth and improve living standards nationwide. Empowering states with high Total Fertility Rates (TFR) is vital to accelerate their fertility decline, fostering uniform demographic transition and promoting national development.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Q.1 While the national political parties in India favour centralisation, the regional parties are in favour of State autonomy. Comment. 2022
Q.2 How have the recommendations of the 14th Finance Commission of India enabled the States to improve their fiscal position? 2021
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q.1 Discuss the concerns of southern states regarding the upcoming delimitation exercise in India. Suggest measures to address these challenges while maintaining the integrity of India’s federal structure.
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