THE CONTEXT: The upcoming Census 2025 in India stands at a critical juncture, poised to reshape the nation’s political and social landscape through its potential impact on Lok Sabha seat distribution, women’s reservation implementation, and the possible inclusion of caste data. This census, delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, carries unprecedented significance in addressing long-standing issues of representation and social equity.
BASICS OF DELIMITATION:
- Constitutional Mandate: Delimitation is mandated by the Constitution of India under Articles 82 and 170. Article 82 requires Parliament to enact a Delimitation Act after every Census, while Article 170 provides for the division of states into territorial constituencies based on the Delimitation Act. Article 329(a) of the Constitution bars judicial review of delimitation orders, as upheld in the Meghraj Kothari v. Delimitation Commission & Ors case (1967).
- Purpose and Aim: The primary purpose of delimitation is to adjust the number and boundaries of constituencies in Parliament and state Assemblies based on the latest population figures. This aims to ensure roughly equal representation by each MP or MLA, upholding the democratic principle of “one person, one vote”.
- Current Status: Delimitation has been suspended since 1976 due to lack of political consensus. The last major delimitation exercise that changed the state-wise composition of the Lok Sabha was completed in 1976 based on the 1971 census. The Supreme Court, in various judgments, has emphasized the finality of Delimitation Commission orders to prevent delays in the electoral process.
HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF CENSUS AND CASTE DATA:
- Origins and Early Development: The first modern census in India was conducted in 1872 under British colonial rule. Systematic decennial censuses began in 1881, establishing a tradition that continued into independent India. Early censuses included detailed caste data, reflecting the colonial administration’s interest in understanding India’s social structure.
- Caste Enumeration in Colonial Era: Censuses between 1881 and 1931 collected comprehensive caste data. This data played a significant role in shaping colonial policies and understanding of Indian society. The 1931 Census was particularly notable for its detailed caste information, which is still referenced in policy discussions today.
- Post-Independence Shift: After independence, the government decided to discontinue caste enumeration in the 1951 Census. This decision was influenced by the desire to move away from caste-based divisions and promote national unity. Only data on Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) continued to be collected.
- Legal Framework: The Census of India Act, 1948 provides the legal basis for conducting the census. Interestingly, this Act does not specify the timing or frequency of the census, allowing flexibility. The Constitution of India mentions census in the Union List, making it a central government responsibility.
- Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) 2011: In response to growing demands, the government conducted the SECC in 2011. This was separate from the regular census and aimed to collect socio-economic data along with caste information. However, the caste data from SECC 2011 was not released, citing data quality issues.
- Recent Debates: There has been increasing demand for including caste data in the regular census, particularly from political parties representing OBCs. The Bihar government’s caste survey in 2023 has reignited the debate on a national caste census. The central government has so far resisted calls for a nationwide caste census, citing administrative and social concerns.
CHALLENGES AND ISSUES DELAYING THE CENSUS:
- COVID-19 Pandemic: The pandemic caused the first miss of the decadal census schedule since 1881. The 2021 Census was postponed indefinitely due to the outbreak.
- Political Considerations: There are concerns about deliberate delays to align the Census with the delimitation process. Some argue that the government is not willing to conduct a caste census, causing significant delays.
- Constitutional Constraints: The 84th Constitutional Amendment of 2001 suspended delimitation until after 2026. This creates challenges for immediate delimitation post-2026 Census, potentially requiring further constitutional amendments.
- Regional Disparities: Southern states fear losing seats due to their successful population control measures, while northern states with higher population growth may gain seats. This disparity raises concerns about fair representation and federal balance.
- Women’s Reservation Implementation: The recently enacted Women’s Reservation Act by 128th constitutional amendment, allocating one-third of seats to women in Parliament and State Assemblies, is tied to post-delimitation seat modifications. This linkage further complicates the delimitation process.
- Caste Census Demands: There is increasing pressure to include caste data in the main Census. This has led to disagreements between the Union and state governments, contributing to delays.
RECOMMENDATIONS:
- The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Home Affairs has recommended setting up a separate expert group by the Registrar General of India to examine the census pattern.
- Some experts suggest delinking the National Population Register (NPR) exercise from the Census due to its politically sensitive nature.
- The Delimitation Commission of 2002 recommended considering the rotation principle for reservation of Scheduled Caste constituencies to address long-standing reservations.
- Legal experts have raised concerns about the digital census, highlighting potential issues with accessibility and accuracy.
- Sociologist argues that a caste census is necessary to understand the current social realities and design effective policies.
- The Mandal Commission (1979-80) recommended conducting a caste census within the next ten years to ascertain the OBC population. The National Commission for Backward Classes has also recommended conducting a caste census.
THE WAY FORWARD:
- Constitutional Amendments and Legal Framework: Amendment to the 84th Constitutional Act needed to facilitate immediate post-2026 delimitation. Need for robust legal framework to protect states’ interests while ensuring fair representation.
- Political Consensus Building: Southern states fear losing representation due to successful population control. Building consensus involves acknowledging these concerns and exploring compensatory mechanisms. financial incentives or increased resource allocation to states that have effectively managed population growth.
- Finance Commission Recommendations: The 16th Finance Commission’s report will be crucial in determining resource distribution. It can recommend compensatory measures for states facing potential loss of representation.
- Census Timeline: Initiating the Census by 2025 is essential to enable delimitation by the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. This requires prompt commencement of preparatory activities. Updating maps, training enumerators, and testing digital tools are crucial steps in ensuring readiness.
- Developing a Formula: A formula that rewards states for population control without penalizing them in terms of representation is vital. This could involve adjusting resource allocations or providing additional seats through other means. Exploring innovative governance models that balance representation with developmental needs.
THE CONCLUSION:
The outcomes of this census will not only provide crucial data for governance but also potentially redefine the balance of power among states, political representation, and the approach to addressing social inequalities. Its outcomes will influence its democratic fabric, social justice initiatives, and policymaking for years to come.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTION:
Q. Two parallel run schemes of the Government viz. the Adhaar Card and NPR, one as voluntary and the other as compulsory, have led to debates at national levels and litigations. On merits, discuss whether both schemes need run concurrently. Analyse the potential of the schemes to achieve developmental benefits and equitable growth. 2014
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q. Critically analyse the potential implications of delimitation on India’s federal structure and regional political balance. Suggest measures to address concerns of states with successful population control policies.
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