TOPIC 8: The cost of being wrong is less than the cost of doing nothing.(UPSC CSE 2024)

Introduction

 “I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.”- By Thomas Edison.

Dashrath Manji, often referred to as the “Mountain Man”, lived in remote village of Bihar, he lost his wife due to a long and treacherous route through mountain to hospital. Determined to prevent such a tragedy in future for other, he started digging the mountains. The villagers ridiculed him and said that it was impossible. Spending 22 years, he carved a 110 m road through the mountain using simple tools. This benefited the entire community by reducing travel time and improving essential services for his community. This depicts power of perseverance in the face of doubts and adversity, it shows that being ridiculed as the ‘cost of being wrong’ was worth more than the ‘cost of doing nothing’. Likewise, Thomas Eddison was removed from the school for being unfit for studies. His mother chose to teach him herself. Years later, Edison grew to invent a groundbreaking invention, The Bulb. Despite failing Edison, like his mother never gave up and despite 1000’s of failure he kept on trying for his first invention. Had Edison’s mother and Edison feared of being wrong or chose inaction. The world would have lost a great scientist. Thus, the journey of Manjhi, Edison, and his mother show that the cost of being wrong is very less in comparison to the cost of inaction as it can block progress entirely.

Interpretation

“You may never know what results come from your action. But if you do nothing, there will be no result.” – By Mahatma Gandhi. The quote signifies that sometimes failure  or cost of an action can be a learning experience, whereas doing nothing can lead to missed opportunities, stagnation and regret. The ‘cost of being wrong’ refers to the negative consequences of taking incorrect action, but on a positive note it often comes with the potential for recovery, learning, and improvement. For example, Apple failed on its very first product – the Apple Lisa and the Newton PDA. But such “mistakes” provided the groundwork which helped Apple understand the user experience and innovation. And from this experience, the firm invented iPhone and iPad that changed the technology development business. In personal life, a person may learn from their wrongs. For example, trying the wrong career or entering the wrong relationship can make him introspect and get a deeper understanding of their goals, strengths, and desires. On several occasions, through self-discovery, individuals find themselves on paths that may help in alignment with their authentic self. On the other hand ‘Cost of doing nothing’, refer to the lost opportunities, stagnation, and deteriorating conditions that sometimes result from doing nothing in response to challenges or opportunities. For example, the inertia of not doing anything behind the destruction of the Amazon rainforest is bringing biodiversity loss, climate change, and breaks in indigenous communities, which are potentially poised to cause long-term ecological collapse. Similarly, In personal relationships, the most difficult but at the same time necessary topics (finances, commitment, or personal values) are usually avoided, often leading to future problems/failure in relationships or financial crises. By doing something, even when the conversations go wrong, there are chances to get early warnings and work through the problems. Thus, at times the cost of not taking any action might be much higher than that of a wrong step, it allows opening up of problems to increase or opportunities to slip away, but without trying there may be no chance for recovery or learning. While the cost of doing wrong often involves learning from failure and building resilience as the inaction, the cost of doing nothing in itself may sometimes offer time for evaluation, planning, and developing more thoughtful solutions. Thus, a strive for balance is essential.

Elaboration

The cost of being wrong: Positives

“Vulnerability is the birthplace of innovation, creativity, and change.” – By Brene Brown. The quote emphasises that cost of being wrong, when approached positively, can be a catalyst for innovation and growth on both individual and societal levels. It lays its importance in  multiple dimensions – be it in individual, society or nations. Politically, doing wrongs or rather than not doing anything, have paved way for reforms and good governance; for instance, wrong political/economic actions costed the financial crisis in 2008, but it opened up the banking sector to giant regulatory reforms, via passing of Dodd-Frank Act in the United States. Similarly, rather than not doing anything for women’s reservations in India, the Women Reservation Bill sparked discussions about gender equality in politics and society. Economically, businesses embracing failure due to wrong decisions often pivot and find sustainable models. For example, after early struggles and trial and errors, Starbucks refined its customer service approach and product offerings to become a global coffee powerhouse. Or for example Airbnb, which though faced challenges and was sceptically criticised in the early years, later leaned and  adapted its business model to thrive in the hospitality industry. Socially, by doing something rather than nothing, we may encounter cost of mistakes in judgment, but it may lead to increased sympathy and understanding. For example, the recent Kolkatta protests in Abhaya’s case serves as a ‘first aggressive step’ for women safety leading to increased awareness and meaningful dialogue surrounding sexual harassment and workplace culture. Technologically, experimentation by process of trial and error fuels innovations; for example, the birth of the internet itself was a result of hundreds of failed attempts at creating feasible communication systems. Similarly, the Chandrayaan, despite the efforts proved disappointing. But on learning from mistakes, it finally showed India’s commitment to space exploration by the successes of Chandrayaan-3, thereby enhancing India’s reputation. On the environmental side, the realization of wrongs or inactions resulted in further action towards greener ideas. For example companies like Unilever have promised to seek out sustainable packaging solutions after an effort was made to challenge  its unstainable plastic practices. Moreover, failure arising of Kyoto Protocol birthed international cooperation such as the Paris Agreement which helped with greater climate actions. On a legal basis, gaps or wrongs can be inspiring towards robust frameworks; for instance, errors involving the initial treatment of the COVID-19 pandemic not only led new guidelines preparedness by WHO, but also early invention of vaccines. Thus, the cost of being wrong is outweighed by the growth, innovation, and progress it inspires across all sectors.

The cost of doing nothing: Negatives

“The one thing that you shouldn’t do is be afraid of making mistakes. If you’re not making mistakes, you’re not doing anything.” – By Neil Gaiman. The cost of doing nothing, or the price of inaction impacts at various dimensions and levels and its impact can be felt across timeliness of present and the future. At the individual level, inaction can result in losing out on opportunities. For example, if an individual chooses not to pursue to higher education, they may find the job search increasingly difficult. Their potential income is subsequently restricted, and they enter a lower socioeconomic band. Alternatively, if they procrastinate (inaction) when it comes to saving for their retirement, the individual may reach pensionable age only to find they have an insufficient pension. At the National level, the cost of inaction, i.e. making  decisions or indeed ignoring potential changes, at all levels can lead to crises. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the countries who did not act with sped-up public health measures saw high infection rates, overwhelming healthcare systems, and widespread economic damage. While, the countries which acted fast with testing and containment strategies, tended to handle the impacts much better. Likewise, the lack of investment in renewable energy infrastructure; countries who refuse to shift from the use of fossil fuels may experience devastating environmental impacts and economic blows such as shortage of energy and diplomatic sanctions due to international pressures over climate change. At an international level, the consequences of doing nothing can lead to catastrophic humanitarian crises and conflict. For instance, in Yemen, failure to act on a humanitarian crisis, and wasting time in waiting for a response, escalated  large-scale famine and suffering. Moreover globally, the lack of global action to correct some issues such as global climate change could lead to disastrous climatic phenomena like rising sea levels and destructive natural catastrophes, making the vulnerable nations suffer the most by cycle of destruction and displacement,. Thus , Neil’s quote reinforces that taking action is critical for progress at all levels of exitance.

Balancing the action and the costs: The Middle Way

“Avoiding extremes, walk the Middle Way.” – By Buddha. Buddha’s quote exemplifies that balancing the cost of being wrong and the cost of doing nothing can be quite rightly analyzed by using a SWOT framework. Organizations, being proactive, can utilize their ‘strengths’ to minimize the cost of being wrong; for example, Netflix changed its business model from DVD rentals to streaming services by utilizing technological capabilities and consumer insight, thereby both consolidating its market position and minimizing the cost of being wrong. On the other hand, the cost of not doing nothing, suggests a ‘weakness’ in case of Yahoo! where it could not evolve into the electronic era made them suffer internally and financially along with severe reputational repercussions. However grabbing ‘opportunity’ of learning from failures, gives one a  major scope of bouncing back. For example, Amazon learned from the failure of Fire Phone, and used the setbacks to come up with new, upgraded products that satisfy customers more, also reiterating that sometimes doing nothing can be much costlier than being wrong. Often, doing nothing or inaction poses greater ‘threats’. For example,  Blockbusters unwillingness to leap aboard the digital streaming bandwagon resulted in a high cost of doing nothing that paved the road to competitors such as Netflix. Finally, using a SWOT analysis, one is able to correctly balance the cost of being wrong and cost of doing nothing just by being compatible with strategic objectives and by fostering on a culture of educated risk.

Anti-thesis

Navigating through small or no actions

“The man who moves a mountain begins by carrying away small stones.” – By Confucius. Though the cost of doing nothing sometimes can literally mean missed opportunities, there are times when doing nothing is viable for reflection in terms of saving resources or avoiding a rush into decisions that might be worse. Sometimes, the inaction itself may enable enough time to evaluate, plan, and develop much better solutions, as costs of action rather than inaction can tend to be statistically and astronomically high. In finance sectors or health sectors, the cost of wrong would involve financial losses or even loss of lives; thus outweighing the risk of inaction. In an organisational setup – for instance, while setting goals for launching a new product, an Impulsive action without taking the time to analyse the market situation may turn into significant losses in terms of finance and reputation, or market failure, thus making the ‘cost of doing nothing’ a better choice. Historically,  Mahatma Gandhi through the Indian National Movements focused on strategic patience as well as careful analysis compared with impulsive actions or making actions. He claimed that thoughtful introspection are more effective than hasty judgments as the cost of action at that point could be very high. This careful diplomatic attitude also manifests itself in terms of absentations by India at UN agencies so as to not take hard stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Israel conflict. Thus, making way for a more analytical and strategic action later. Parents often illustrate this principle when they don’t react impulsively to what their children do, they instead guide their children, thus creating a more supportive environment. Thus, we must identify and introspect the cost of being wrong, as well as the cost of doing nothing, because a decision either way is somewhat tough and brings its own set of challenges. Therefore, it must be dealt with through smooth navigation in order to have favourable outcomes.

Way forward

“Do or Do not. There is no try.” – By Yoda. The quote by Yoda takes this idea forward that one has to embrace decisiveness in the decisions. Teaching people how to act with decisiveness can begin with the idea of starting small, as it will help to take manageable steps that allow for gradual progress and build confidence. For instance, employees at Google can spend 20% of working hours on side projects, and indeed, this is where Gmail was invented. The “Fail Fast, Learn Fast” approach at startups allows one to bounce quickly if strategies fail, therefore not wasting resources. Defining time limits for decision-making can prevent paralysis by analysis. For instance, rapid and timely responses to the crises, such as Nipah Virus, terrorism, poaching, COVID-19 pandemic, helped contain its damaging impacts. Finally, there should be assessments and reassessments at fixed intervals regarding the previous decisions because that is where learning and development take place. For example, companies such as Coca-Cola provide the avenue for learning and improvement following the launch of failed products. Thus, there is a requirement to foster a mentality that drives doing and not doing nothing. Since the recognition of mistake-making costs can be defeated by doing and from learning from progress.

Conclusion

“You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” – By Wayne Gretzky. The quote philosophically acknowledge the fact that ultimately there comes a time of uncertainty; every action we make has a chances for error, but the approach of choosing action rather than inaction turns more fruitful results. This quote may be better explained with the instance of Arjuna from Mahabharata, who was initially hesitant to kill his relatives in the battlefield of Kurukshetra. But Lord Krishna made him understand that inaction would bring more destruction and injustice than some action and hence asked him to focus on Nishkama Karma. Arjuna thus learns to embrace his profession as a warrior and focus on action than not doing anything. Thus, this compels action in the face of uncertainty. Similarly, the notions of public administration thinker Herbert Simon also support this argument about the requirement of making a decision that leads to further action in the light of uncertainty. For Simon, decision-makers must embrace the confusion of choice, and take a decision towards further action, rather than just sitting actionless on a decision. His ‘Bounded Rationality Theory’ and ‘Value Free Science of Decision-making’ promoted action in administration towards Values and Fact. Thus, the two elements of Arjuna’s journey and Simon’s insights signify the need to be bold enough to foster ‘action’ as it can lead to progress and development. Ultimately, it is through action even at the cost of being wrong that we pave the way for the future success.