CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NON-TIMBER FOREST PRODUCTS

TAG: GS 3: ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT

THE CONTEXT: A recent study has brought to light the significant impact climate change will have on the habitats of key tree species in India’s tropical dry deciduous forests.

EXPLANATION:

• These species, essential for livelihoods and medicinal use, will experience varied responses to the changing climate.

Research Parameters

• The study, titled “How can dry tropical forests respond to climate change? Predictions for key Non-Timber Forest Product species show different trends in India,” published in the journal Springer.
• It assesses the climate suitability of various species under different climate scenarios.
• It examines two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP):
  • RCP 2.6: Assumes carbon emissions will begin declining by 2020.
  • RCP 8.5: Predicts a temperature increase of 3.3 to 5.7 degrees Celsius if current trends continue.

Key Findings

• The study reveals a divergent impact on several tree species:
  • Bael (Aegle marmelos) and Bahera (Terminalia bellirica): Expected to thrive.
  • Chironji (Buchanania lanzan), Mahua (Madhuca longifolia), and Amla (Phyllanthus emblica): Expected to decline.
• Bael and Bahera
  • Bael (Aegle marmelos):
    • Climate Resilience: Bael shows resilience to future climate changes with minimal impacts.
    • Habitat Shifts by 2070 (RCP 8.5):
      • Highly suitable habitats will shift to the south Deccan plateau, eastern plateau, east coast, upper and lower Gangetic plains, and Punjab plains.
      • However, bael will retreat from current habitats in the Siwalik hills, Western Ghats of Kerala, and northeastern India due to increased monsoon precipitation and higher altitudes creating favorable conditions.

• Bahera (Terminalia bellirica):
  • Climate Resilience: Bahera is anticipated to thrive, with an increase in climate suitability in the Western Ghats, Central Highlands, south Deccan plateau, eastern plateau, and east coast.
  • Current Habitat: Found in the Western Ghats, Central Highlands, and Siwalik hills, with moderate presence in the Upper Gangetic plains, Central Highlands, eastern plateau, and Chhota Nagpur plateau.
  • Climate Suitability: Shows low suitability in central and southern states like Karnataka, Telangana, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal, and northeastern India.

• Both bael and bahera are drought-tolerant and can thrive in poor or dry soils.

• Chironji, Mahua, and Amla
  • Chironji (Buchanania lanzan):
    • Impact of Climate Change: Expected to see a decline in suitable habitats due to sensitivity to high temperatures and rainfall variations.
    • Current Habitat: Located in the Western Ghats, Central Highlands, and Siwalik hills.

• Mahua (Madhuca longifolia):
  • Impact of Climate Change: Severe impact anticipated, with a significant reduction in suitable habitats by 2100 due to increased intensity and frequency of rains.
  • Current Habitat: Concentrated in the Western Ghats, Central Highlands, and south Deccan Peninsula.

• Amla (Phyllanthus emblica):
  • Impact of Climate Change: Predicted decline in suitable habitats due to excessive heat and changes in annual rainfall.
  • Current Habitat: Primarily found in the Siwalik hills, Western Ghats, Assam hills, and Brahmaputra valley.

• The model predictions were validated by the presence of fossil pollen records of all target species in the specified habitats.
• These records indicate that the target species have been present for approximately 6000 years, suggesting a strong historical distribution during warm, humid climates in India.
• The study demonstrates a strong agreement between paleo proxy data and past projections of the target species made using Species Distribution Models.
• This combined technique is effective in validating predictive models.

Conservation Implications

• In addition to habitat disruption caused by climate change, other significant threats to global biodiversity include invasive species, overexploitation, and pollution.
• The findings of this study underscore the need for comprehensive conservation strategies.
• The study’s authors urge the government to implement policies involving native peoples to protect major Non-Timber Forest Product (NTFP) species.
• They emphasize the need for more research to develop sustainable management and conservation solutions for tropical and sub-tropical forest ecosystems.
• Further studies are necessary to understand how Indian forests will react to upcoming changes in climatic regimes.
• Continued research can guide conservation and restoration plans to mitigate the impacts of climate change on NTFP species.

SOURCE: https://www.downtoearth.org.in/wildlife-biodiversity/climate-change-impact-bael-and-bahera-to-thrive-chironji-mahua-amla-to-decline-shows-study