TAG: GS 1: SOCIETY
THE CONTEXT: The United Nations World Population Prospects report, released in 2024, projects significant demographic changes globally and highlights the imperative for countries to capitalize on demographic dividends through strategic investments in education, health, and infrastructure.
EXPLANATION:
India’s Population Growth and Peak
- India surpassed China in 2023 to become the world’s most populous country.
- According to the UN report, India’s population is projected to peak at 1.701 billion in 2062.
- This projection marks a crucial milestone, indicating a significant demographic trend for the country over the next four decades.
- Like many other countries experiencing a demographic dividend, India has a substantial proportion of its population in the working-age group (20 to 64 years).
- The UN report emphasizes the necessity for India to harness this demographic dividend by investing in education, health, and infrastructure.
- Such investments are crucial to creating jobs, improving government efficiency, and ultimately driving economic growth.
Global Population Trends
- Peak Population Projections
- The global population is expected to peak around the mid-2080s at 10.3 billion, up from 8.2 billion in 2024.
- This projection represents a significant increase but is also lower than previous estimates, indicating a potential stabilization of population growth.
- Decline in Population Growth Rate
- The report notes that by 2100, the global population size is anticipated to be 6% lower—approximately 700 million fewer—than projections made a decade ago.
- This adjustment reflects changing fertility rates, aging populations, and other socio-economic factors influencing global demographics.
- Aging Population
- A notable demographic trend is the increasing proportion of the elderly population.
- The global population of 65 and older is projected to reach 2.2 billion by the late 2070s, surpassing the number of children under 18.
- This shift poses significant challenges to social security systems, healthcare infrastructure, and economic productivity.
Country-Specific Population Peaks
- The report highlights that 63 countries have already seen their population peak by 2024.
- Another 48 countries are expected to reach their population peak between now and 2054.
- In contrast, 126 countries, including major nations like India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States, are projected to see their population continue to grow until at least the second half of the century.
- Countries experiencing population peaks must adapt to demographic changes, such as an increasing dependency ratio and potential labor shortages.
- Strategic investments in technology, automation, and efficient governance will be essential to mitigate the socio-economic impacts of these demographic shifts.
Rising Life Expectancy
- The report indicates that global life expectancy is on the rise again, reaching 73.3 years in 2024.
- This recovery follows a decline to 70.9 years during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- The improvement in life expectancy reflects advancements in healthcare, disease management, and overall living conditions.
- The upward trend in life expectancy is expected to continue, driven by medical advancements, improved healthcare access, and better living standards globally.
- However, increasing life expectancy also necessitates adjustments in pension systems, elder care, and workforce planning to accommodate an aging population.
Strategic Recommendations
- Investments in Human Capital
- The UN report underscores the need for countries to invest heavily in education, healthcare, and infrastructure to leverage their demographic dividends.
- Such investments are critical for fostering economic growth, enhancing productivity, and improving living standards.
- Job Creation and Government Efficiency
- To capitalize on the growing working-age population, countries must implement reforms to create sustainable jobs and enhance government efficiency.
- This involves promoting entrepreneurship, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and leveraging technology to streamline administrative processes.
- Addressing Aging Population Challenges
- Countries with aging populations need to develop comprehensive policies to support the elderly.
- This includes strengthening social security systems, expanding healthcare services, and promoting active aging initiatives to ensure the well-being and productivity of older citizens.
World Population Prospects 2024
- World Population Prospects 2024 is the twenty-eighth edition of the official United Nations population estimates and projections.
- It presents population estimates from the 1990s to the present for 237 countries or areas, underpinned by analyses of historical demographic trends.
- The 2024 revision also presents population projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and national levels.
- The Population Division prepares the official United Nations demographic estimates and projections for all countries and areas of the world.
- It helps States build capacity to formulate population policies, and enhances coordination of related UN system activities through its participation in the Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities.