Table of Contents
THE CONTEXT: India is facing a significant water scarcity issue, with major reservoirs across the country filled to only 28.2% of their capacity, a particularly dire situation in the southern states. This scarcity is attributed to less-than-ideal monsoon seasons, exacerbated by the effects of El Niño, which have also impacted agricultural production and increased food prices. The country’s economic growth and agricultural stability are closely tied to the monsoon season, highlighting the importance of upcoming weather patterns.
ISSUES:
- Severe water shortage: The water levels in 150 major reservoirs are just 28.2% of their total storage capacity, below the levels of a year ago and the 10-year average. The situation is particularly dire in southern states where reservoirs are only 15.7% full.
- Impact on agricultural production: Last year’s poor monsoon and El Niño effects have affected agricultural production, as evidenced by lower government procurement of rice and wheat compared to the previous year. Retail prices of essential commodities like pulses, vegetables, and sugar are also significantly higher.
- El Niño’s impact on crop yields: El Niño has affected rainfall and temperatures, leading to a hit on wheat yields in central India due to hot weather during the critical growth stages.
- Uncertainty around the upcoming monsoon: With the forthcoming elections, the focus may shift to the monsoon, which is crucial for the Indian economy’s growth prospects. Two consecutive bad monsoons can significantly impact the economy.
- Potential food inflation challenge for the new government: Depending on the performance of the upcoming monsoon, the new government may have to prioritize managing food inflation in its first 100 days, as poor crop production can lead to further price rises.
THE WAY FORWARD:
- Enhanced Water Conservation and Management: To augment water availability, implement advanced water conservation techniques, such as rainwater harvesting. Promote modern irrigation methods like drip and sprinkler systems that minimize water wastage. Additionally, invest in renovating existing water infrastructure to reduce leakage and improve efficiency in water distribution.
- Diversification of Agriculture: Encourage farmers to diversify crops with a focus on drought-resistant varieties that require less water. This can reduce dependency on a single crop and mitigate the impact of failed monsoons. Crop diversification can also help stabilize food prices by ensuring a steady supply of various agricultural products.
- Strengthening Weather Forecasting and Agricultural Advisory Services: Invest in improving weather forecasting technologies and disseminating timely information to farmers. This can help farmers make informed decisions about planting and harvesting times, irrigation needs, and crop selection based on expected weather conditions. Providing agricultural advisory services can further assist farmers in adopting best practices for soil health, water use, and crop management.
- Strategic Food Reserves and Market Intervention: Build and maintain strategic reserves of essential food commodities to buffer against supply shocks. Government intervention in markets to release stocks during periods of high price volatility can help stabilize prices. Additionally, policies to ensure fair pricing and prevent hoarding can protect consumers from excessive food inflation.
- Promoting Sustainable Agricultural Practices: Encourage the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices that improve soil health and water retention, such as cover cropping, no-till farming, and organic farming. These practices can enhance the resilience of agricultural systems to climatic variations and reduce the impact of poor monsoons on crop yields.
THE CONCLUSION:
The potential shift from El Niño to a La Niña phase, which historically brings more rainfall to India, offers hope for a better monsoon season and, consequently, improved agricultural output and water reservoir levels. However, the government faces the immediate challenge of managing food inflation and addressing water scarcity concerns. Preparing for the possibility of another subpar monsoon season is crucial for mitigating the impact on the economy and the livelihoods of millions.
UPSC PAST YEAR QUESTIONS:
Q.1 Most unusual climatic happenings are explained as an outcome of the El-Nino effect. Do you agree? 2014
Q.2 What characteristics can be assigned to monsoon climate that succeeds in feeding more than 50 % of the world population in monsoon Asia? 2017
Q.3 Suggest measures to improve water storage and irrigation systems to make their use judicious under depleting scenarios. 2020
MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:
Q.1 Discuss the impact of consecutive subpar monsoons and the phenomenon of El Niño on India’s agricultural output and food inflation. Evaluate the potential role of a predicted La Niña phase in alleviating these challenges.
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