THE CONTEXT: In Feb-March 2022, India and Maldives have dived into a new foray into strategic relations with bilateral meetings on various fronts. There have been high-profile visits of Indian dignitaries to the Maldives. This article analyses regional security and maritime safety issues along with socio-economic development, trade and investment, and tourism at a time when the “India Out” campaign is regaining momentum in the Maldives along with challenges of Chinese influence and others.

MOST RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN INDIA-MALDIVES RELATIONSHIPS

DEFENCE COOPERATION DIALOGUE:

• Defence Secretary of India visited the Maldives on 13-14 Feb 2022, with the primary objective of discussions on the 3rd Defence Cooperation Dialogue(DCD).
• Both sides discussed joint efforts and capacity-building initiatives being taken by both the countries to deter trans-national crimes and bolster national security in the region.
• The Defence Secretary of India also inaugurated the Composite Training Center Phase-I Annex built with Indian grant assistance in the Maldives and handed over the refitted CGS Huravee – a made-in-India patrol vessel.

COLOMBO SECURITY CONCLAVE:

• NSA of India visited the Maldives on 7 March 2022 to attend the 5th NSA level Colombo Security Conclave (CSC) meeting.
• The four pillars of security cooperation (in CSC) include maritime safety and security, human trafficking, counter-terrorism, and cyber security.
• India, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka are the founding members of the Colombo Security Conclave. Mauritius was included as a new member of the conclave during the meeting, which was also attended by Bangladesh and Seychelles as observers in 2022.

CAG LEVEL BILATERAL MEET TO STRENGTHEN PROFESSIONAL CAPABILITIES IN MALDIVES:

• Steps were taken for furthering the cooperation between the two Supreme Audit Institutions (SAI) by operationalizing the MoU to strengthen the professional capacities and improve audit methodology.
• Emphasized the role of technology, in today’s rapidly changing world, which constantly creates fresh avenues for audit and makes audits more efficient. The exchange of knowledge and capacity development initiatives would equip both the SAIs in the use of emerging technologies for auditing.
• The MOU is signed at the most opportune time given the strategic shift towards future relevance which requires both the countries to cater to the demands of the knowledge economy and sustainable development.

VISIT OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS MINISTER TO MALDIVES:

• Inauguration of National College for Policing and Law Enforcement (NCPLE):
• NCPLE is one of India’s largest funded projects in the island nation – in the Maldives’ Addu City
• One of the objectives of this training academy is to address the challenges of violent extremism and prevent radicalisation.
• On the domestic level in the Maldives, the training academy would help strengthen law enforcement abilities and counter drug trafficking, a major concern in the country.
• MoU for Training: A memorandum of understanding was signed by the
• Maldives Police Service and India’s Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel National Police Academy to enhance cooperation in training and capacity building. India has also increased the number of training slots for the Maldives at the police academy to eight.
• Support for Infrastructure: The project for the creation of police infrastructure facilities across the islands of Maldives with over $40 million financing from EXIM Bank of India has also been given necessary approvals.

INDIA OUT CAMPAIGN AND INDIA OUT BILL:

• India Out campaign has cropped up every now and then within the Indian Ocean island nation, mostly on social media. The campaign is led by critics who accuse the present government of allowing Indian boots on the ground and thereby compromising the sovereignty of the island nation. The ruling administration has time and again denied any Indian military presence in the country or a threat to Maldives’s sovereignty.
• India Out Bill is a draft Bill by the present Maldivian government that criminalises public campaigns that apparently harm Maldives’ relations with foreign countries.

AN ANALYSIS OF RECENT VISITS

• The Maldives holds strategic importance for India under the present government’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy due to its location in the Indian Ocean. However, the relations between the two countries were strained under the pro-China regime of their former President Abdulla Yameen. This can be reflected in the recent ‘India Out’ campaign led by Abdulla Yameen, against India’s massive developmental funding for creating physical, social, and community infrastructure, and incumbent President Solih’s government retaining two India-gifted helicopters and their operational military personnel.
• For India, the Indian Ocean is of utmost importance. Since 2014, India has taken a proactive approach to cement its role as the leader in the Indian Ocean by according priority maritime diplomacy and initiatives. This comes against the backdrop of rising Chinese assertiveness in the IOR and the growing interest of various powers in the Indian Ocean generally, and the Maldives in particular. As the pre-eminent South-Asian power and net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region, India needs to cooperate in all dimensions with the Maldives. The recent bilateral meetings between India and Maldives will offer India the right opportunity.

AREAS OF ENGAGEMENT INDIA-MALDIVES RELATIONS

GEO-STRATEGIC: The Maldives, a Toll Gate in the Indian Ocean:

• Located in the southern and northern parts of this island chain lies the two important Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOCs). These SLOCs are critical for maritime trade flow between the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Hormuz in West Asia and the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia.
• Nearly 50% of India’s external trade and 80% of its energy imports transit these SLOCs in the Arabian Sea.
• The location of the Maldives, at the intersection of commercial sea lanes running through the Indian Ocean, makes it strategically important for India, particularly in light of China’s growing aggression in the region.

IMPORTANT GROUPINGS:

• Maldives is a member of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation (SASEC).
• Engagement with QUAD (India, Japan, Australia, and the US)
• Maldivian engagement with the ‘Quad’, has been growing over the last year, especially in the area of defense cooperation.
• The present government signed a ‘Framework for a Defence and Security Relationship’ agreement with the United States. It was welcomed by India.

The South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation (SASEC) program set up in 2001 brings together Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, and Sri Lanka in a project-based partnership that aims to promote regional prosperity, improve economic opportunities, and build a better quality of life for the people of the subregion. SASEC countries share a common vision of boosting intraregional trade and cooperation in South Asia, while also developing connectivity and trade with Southeast Asia through Myanmar, the People’s Republic of China, and the global market.

SECURITY COOPERATION:

• India and Maldives conduct the joint military exercise ‘Ekuverin’ every year since 2009.
• Mauritius was included as a new member of the conclave during the fifth meeting of national security advisers of the Colombo Security Conclave. It is a maritime security grouping of India, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Mauritius to forge closer cooperation on maritime and security matters among these Indian Ocean countries.
• MILAN, a Multilateral Naval Exercise hosted by India, made a modest beginning in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in 1995 with the participation of four littoral navies. This biennial congregation of friendly navies, over the last two and a half decades, has progressively grown in magnitude with the latest edition in 2022 being attended by 42 countries including the Maldives.
• Maldives is also a member country of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA). The objectives of IORA are:
• To promote sustainable growth and balanced development of the region and member states
• To focus on those areas of economic cooperation which provide maximum opportunities for development, shared interest, and mutual benefits
• To promote liberalization, remove impediments, and lower barriers towards a freer and enhanced flow of goods, services, investment, and technology within the Indian Ocean rim.

DISASTER MANAGEMENT:

• The Maldives has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Covid-19 assistance and vaccines delivered by India among India’s all neighbouring countries. The Maldives was the first beneficiary of India’s Vaccine Maitri initiative.
• When the world supply chains were blocked because of the pandemic, India continued to provide crucial commodities to the Maldives under Mission SAGAR.

ECONOMIC COOPERATION:

• Tourism is the mainstay of the Maldives’ economy. The country is a major tourist destination for some Indians and a job destination for others.
• In August 2021 India signed a contract for the largest-ever infrastructure project in Maldives which is the Greater Male Connectivity Project (GMCP).
• Under the bilateral agreement, India provides essential food items like rice, wheat flour, sugar, dal, onion, potato, and eggs and construction material such as sand and stone aggregates to the Maldives on favourable terms.
• Blue Economy as defined by World Bank is the sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, improved livelihoods, and jobs while preserving the health of the ocean ecosystem. The Maldives can play a significant role in India’s Vision of New India by 2030 as the Maldives also aims to achieve a more sustainable development model by making better use of its ocean resources.

DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME:

India has helped the Maldives in many diverse areas to bolster the development of the Maldives e.g.

• Indira Gandhi Memorial Hospital, Maldives Institute of Technical Education (now called the Maldives Polytechnic),
• India-Maldives Faculty of Hospitality & Tourism Studies,
• Technology Adoption Programme in Education Sector in the Maldives,
• a port on Gulhifalhu,
• airport redevelopment at Hanimaadhooand a hospital and a cricket stadium in Hulhumale etc.
• Under the Greater Male Connectivity Project (GMCP) project, a 6.74 km long bridge and causeway link will be built to connect the capital city Male with adjoining islands of Villingli, Gulhifalhu, and Thilafushi.

DIASPORA:

• There is a significant Indian diaspora in the Maldives. Innumerable Indians work across the hospitality, education, and healthcare sectors of the Maldives economy.

IMPORTANCE OF INDIA FOR MALDIVES

FOOD SECURITY: Maldive’s food security depends a lot on imports from India. Food articles such as rice, flour, sugar, chicken, eggs, potatoes, onions, and lentils as among the basic foodstuffs consumed by Maldivians in substantial quantities and supplied by India.

INFRASTRUCTURE: Sand and gravel for construction are also supplied by India.

TOURISM: India is also a major source of the tourism sector for the Maldives, the nation’s economic mainstay.

HEALTH AND EDUCATION: India is also a preferred destination for Maldivians for education, medical treatment, recreation, and business. According to MEA more Maldivians are seeking long-term visas for pursuing higher studies/medical treatment in India.

CURRENT CHALLENGES IN INDIA-MALDIVES RELATION

CHINA’S STRATEGIC FOOTPRINT IN INDIA’S NEIGHBOURHOOD: The Maldives has emerged as an important ‘pearl’ in China’s “String of Pearls” construct in South Asia. Given the uncertain dynamics of Sino-Indian relations, China’s strategic presence in the Maldives remains a concern. Also, the Maldives have started using the China card to bargain with India.

POLITICAL INSTABILITY: India’s major concern has been the impact of political instability in the neighbourhood on its security and development. The consequent political crisis and the “India Out” Campaign have posed a real diplomatic test for India’s neighbourhood policy.

RADICALISATION: Radicalisation is not a new challenge that the Maldives has been tackling, but the bomb attack on former president Mohamed Nasheed in May 2021 has put the issue into sharper focus and has become a pressing concern. The attack clearly indicates that radical groups are actively advancing their position in the Maldives. Radical ideology has strengthened itself in the Maldives and has, in the recent past, been assisted by state institutions.

UTHURU THILA FALHU (UTF) HARBOUR PROJECT: UTF Agreement was signed between India and the Maldives in February 2021. The speculation that the project would be turned into a naval base by India has also been a reason for internal political instability in the Maldives. However, the agreement was to develop a dockyard for Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) and operate a Dornier aircraft for surveillance.

THE WAY FORWARD

• Mobilising ordinary citizens through the ‘India Out’ campaign is a cause for concern for India. India has to work on perception management in the Maldives.
• The potential for both countries to work together on adaptive and mitigating measures against the adverse maritime impacts of climate change is enormous. This potential must be realised through imaginative foreign policy and maritime security initiatives.
• The ‘India-First Policy’ of the Maldives and India’s ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ are intuitively complementary, implementing these policies with cultural, geo-economics, and geostrategic sensitivity is imperative for both nations.
• India and Maldives have not yet signed a Free Trade Agreement. To reap the benefits of continued efforts in the economic cooperation and infrastructure developmental projects India should think of having an FTA with the Maldives. (Maldives have FTA with China).
• India-Maldives defense cooperation shall be enhanced to monitor Chinese maritime and naval movements along vital sea lanes of communication that run alongside the Maldives.
• Encourage the Indian private sector to deepen its engagement in the Maldivian economy.
• Countries complain that India doesn’t deliver on projects and they tend to make comparisons with China. Delivering projects on time would help India in mitigating some concerns that may exist in the Maldives.

 THE CONCLUSION: While India-Maldives relations have always been close, cordial, and multi-dimensional, recent regime instability in the Maldives has posed some limitations, especially in the political & strategic arena. Therefore, the main challenge to India’s diplomacy is balancing out all these contradictions into harmonious relations.

MAINS PRACTICE QUESTION:

1. “Recent India-First Policy of the Maldives and India’s Neighborhood First Policy are intuitively complementary”. In the light of recent agreements signed between India and Maldives discuss the strategic importance of the Maldives to India.
2. “India’s Vision of New India by 2030 and Maldives aims to achieve a more sustainable development model by making better use of its ocean resources are complementary to each other. “Elaborate in the context of the Blue Economy.

ADD TO YOUR KNOWLEDGE

 

THE CONTEXT: The Centre constituted the Ken-Betwa Link Project Authority to implement the first initiative under the national river interlinking policy, which seeks to bring nearly 11 lakh hectares of land under irrigation in the parched Bundelkhand region straddling Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Earlier, the finance minister allocated Rs 44,605 crore for the implementation of the Ken-Betwa River link project for irrigation of the Bundle Khand region in the Union Budget 2022-23.

KEN BETWA LINK PROJECT: OVERVIEW

• It is a river-interlinking project that aims to transfer surplus water from the Ken river in Madhya Pradesh to Betwa in Uttar Pradesh to irrigate the drought-prone Bundelkhand region. Both Ken and Betwa are the tributaries of the Yamuna.
• It is the first river interlinking project, among the 16 similar projects planned under the Peninsular Rivers Development of the National Perspective Plan (NPP).
• The main objective of the NPP is the transfer of water from river basins with surplus water to those with scarce water, for tackling the problem of water scarcity. The NPP comprises the Himalayan Rivers Development and Peninsular Rivers Development.
• The Ken Betwa River linking project, the construction schedule for which has been planned for eight years, will be executed in two phases:
• Phase-I: In the first phase, the Daudhan dam complex and its appurtenances, such as low-level tunnel, high-level tunnel, 221-kilometre Ken-Betwa link canal, and powerhouses will be completed.
• Phase-II: In the second phase, the Ken Betwa link project development works will be started for the lower Orr dam, Bina complex project, and Kotha barrage.

KEN BETWA RIVER LINKING PROJECT TIMELINE

• August 1980: The National Perspective Plan(NPP) is formulated.
• August 2005: MoU signed by state governments of MP, UP, and the ce
• central government to prepare the DPR for the project.
• April 2010: The National Water Development Agency (NWDA) completes the DPR for phase-I of the KBLP.
• January 2014: The NWDA completes the DPR for phase II of the project.
• September 2014: Special Committee on interlinking of rivers (ILR) was constituted, for implementing the ILR program.
• April 2015: A task force for interlinking of rivers was constituted by MoWR, River Development, and Ganga Rejuvenation.
• March 2021: Governments of UP and MP sign an MoU with the Jal Shakti Ministry for implementing the Ken betwa river linking project.
• February 2022: Government announces budget allocation of Rs 44,605 crore for the project during the Union Budget 2022-23.

KEN BETWA PROJECT COST

• The project will be completed at an estimated cost of around Rs 44,605 crores. The Ken-Betwa Link Project Authority, a special purpose vehicle (SPV) for implementing the project will be formed and the central government will bear 90% of the total project cost, while the states will bear the rest (UP and MP).

A Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) for the project:

• A Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) called Ken-Betwa Link Project Authority (KBLPA) will be set up to implement the project. In fact, the Centre has set in motion the process of creation of the National Interlinking of Rivers Authority (NIRA), an independent, autonomous body for planning, investigation, financing, and implementation of the interlinking of river (ILR) projects in the country.
• The NIRA will have powers to set up SPV for individual link projects.

KEN BETWA RIVER LINKING PROJECT: BENEFITS AND IMPACT

• The government envisions the interlinking of rivers as a top priority towards sustainable development of water resources in India. The Ken Betwa link project has been planned as a multi-purpose project for providing several benefits in terms of better utilisation of water resources and addressing the water scarcity in several parts of the Bundelkhand region.
• The region is prone to recurring drought conditions that have impacted socio-economic development in the area. Moreover, the location is not rich in groundwater due to the hard rock and marginal alluvium terrain. Hence, the project will help in utilising the floodwater during monsoon and stabilise the availability of water during lean months, especially in drought years.
• The Ken and Betwa river project will also provide annual irrigation and hydropower generation. The districts that will benefit from the Ken Betwa link pariyojna include Chhatarpur, Tikamgarh, Sagar, Damoh, Datia, Vidisha, Shivpuri, and Raisen and Panna in Madhya Pradesh and Jhansi, Mahoba, Banda and Lalitpur in Uttar Pradesh. Due to the project, as many as 62 lakh people in the Bundelkhand region will also experience an improved drinking water supply.

SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE PROJECT

Social Impact: A major goal of the project is to provide irrigation to the water-scarce Bundelkhand region. According to the Water Resources Ministry, a total of 10 villages consisting of 1,585 families are likely to be affected by this project.

• Loss of Land: In all 6422.62 ha of private lands would be lost by the project affected families for the construction of the Daudhan dam and other project components along with the canal network under the project. Besides, as per the project design, about 5339.00 ha of forest lands would also be brought under various project components. This indicates that the landowners would lose their landed properties.
• Loss of Livelihood: About 72 percent of households would become landless, nearly 21 percent would become marginal farmers and almost 7 percent will fall under the small farmer category. As a result of land acquisition, the project affected big farmers who would lose their big farmer status.
• Loss of Employment: Due to land acquisition, several families, who become landless, would lose their total self-employment, who otherwise have been engaged in their farming activity.
• Loss of Income: Project-affected household’s socio-economic environment will affect their family life due to loss of land, livelihood, and employment resulting in reduced family income.

Economic Impact:

• This project will prove several economic benefits like the development of agro-based industries, and transportation and storage facilities.
• Increased farm supplies, production, and consumption of fertilizer, pesticide, farm equipment, and employment generation.
• Economic benefits of irrigation water supply include various benefits on, crop production; recharges groundwater, animal husbandry, farm equipment, and agro-processing.
• Livestock production, especially milk, is a major part of the agricultural economy in the Bundelkhand region. Under the project, a large water body will be coming up by constructing a dam and will certainly recharge and increase the groundwater levels in the project area. This will help the farming community as well as other water users who depended on groundwater facilities.
• The project has good potential, particularly because of the close proximity of the Daudhan dam site to Khajurao for recreation and tourism development.
• Provision for the development of tourist huts, and picnic spots has been made on the periphery of Rangwan reservoir (about 9 km from the Daudhan dam site).
• The negative part of the KBLP project is crop and livestock production loss due to the submergence of the crop area upstream of the reservoir.

Environmental Impact:

• This project would submerge an area of 9,000 hectares. Of which 5,258 hectares are forest land (including 4,141 hectares of Panna Tiger Reserve).
• River diversion would bring drastic changes in the physical and chemical compositions of the sediment load, river morphology, and the shape of the delta formed at the river mouth. All these have serious economic and livelihood implications that are merely ignored by the project.
• The project may also lead to a loss of two million trees.
• The land use land cover and vegetation data show that tree density and diversity are comparatively higher in the submerged area.
• The regeneration pattern also shows that the seedling diversity and richness and sapling density diversity and richness are high in the submerged area.
• Minimum flow in the Ken River is adequate to dilute the untreated sewage. Hence the impact on the surface water quality is negligible, which will still be reduced by sewage treatment measures.
• There are valuable timber trees that are going to be submerged.

WILL THE PROJECT AFFECT THE PANNA TIGER RESERVE?

• Panna Tiger Reserve is one of the country’s important and successful tiger recovery reserves.
• A species recovery plan was developed to reinforce the tiger population, because of which the tiger population has increased from 0 in 2009 to 54 in 2019.
• Panna Tiger Reserve was included in the global network of biosphere reserves by the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) in 2020.
• The UNESCO cited PTR as a critical tiger habitat.
• The Project will lead to the submergence of a major portion of the core area of the Panna Tiger Reserve in Madhya Pradesh, triggering a major loss of the tiger and its major prey species such as chital and sambar.
• The project may incur an estimated loss of 58.03 square kilometers (10.07 percent) of critical tiger habitat (CTH) in the reserve.
• There will be an indirect loss of 105.23 sq km of CTH because of habitat fragmentation and loss of connectivity due to submergence.
• The total area submerged would be 86.50 sq km, of which 57.21 sq km lies within Panna Tiger Reserve. This will account for 65.50 percent of total submergence.

THE INTERLINKING OF RIVERS

The National Perspective Plan (NPP) presented the development of water resources through the inter-basin transfer and the transfer of water from water surplus basins to water-deficit basins. The interlinking of rivers is a large-scale civil engineering project that aims to effectively manage water resources in India under the NPP.

Positives of interlinking of rivers for multi-dimensional inter-related problems

Droughts: The drought-prone regions like Vidharbha face perennial droughts. The interlinking of seasonal peninsular rivers with their Himalayan counterparts may be a gamechanger for this region’s agriculture and food security prospects.

Floods: Interlinking of rivers will contribute to flood and drought hazard mitigation for India. It will most likely eradicate the flooding problems which recur in the northeast and the north every year. For example, floodwaters of the Kosi river could be diverted to other east-flowing rivers.

Improve the inland navigation:

• Interlinking of rivers will create a network of navigation channels. Water transport is cheaper, less-polluting compare to road and railways.
• Further, the interlinking of rivers can ease the pressure on railways and roads also.
• More importantly, India has the huge untapped potential of inland water transport, which can be a game-changer in the logistics aspect and, thus, overall costs of goods & services.

Negatives of interlinking of rivers for multi-dimensional inter-related problems:

• Ecological challenges: The ambitious project will divert forest areas and submergence fertile land leading to deforestation and soil- erosion. For example, the Ken-Betwa link projects have reduced 8% of the forest land of Panna National Park. Also, river diversion may bring significant changes in the physical and chemical compositions of the sediment load, river morphology, and the shape of the delta formed in the river basin.
• Social challenges: Reconstruction and rehabilitation of millions of people in and around the river catchments could face significant psychological damage, resulting in social unrest and protests in the initial stages.
• Political challenges: India’s inter-state river doesn’t have a bright history (for example, the Cauvery River dispute). Further, water being a state subject demands sustained inter-state cooperation which may be a challenge given the diversity India offers.

THE WAY FORWARD:

• The interlinking of rivers in India has both pros and cons. Implementing the project in its entirety may be a challenge in present times. Therefore, the government must opt for a decentralized method of implementation instead of a centralized one.
• Inter-linking projects should receive the nod only after appropriate EIA and environmental clearances.
• Further, we must look for alternatives for efficient water use in India. For instance, measures like efficient water use in agriculture (per drop more crop), resourceful rainwater harvesting in drought-prone areas, and so on can be looked upon to liberate India from the persistent water stress.
• Adopt Alternative measures: A case study of Jakhni village of Banda district
• A 2019 NITI Aayog report mentioned Jakhni village of Banda district in Bundelkhand, one of the most water-scarce regions of India. The area witnessed heavy out-migration in search of water and better livelihood opportunities.
• However, through rigorous water conservation efforts such as the construction of farm ponds, restoration of water bodies, collection and utilization of greywater, raising of farm bunds, and intensive plantation of trees since 2014, the water situation has improved. Jakhni village, for example, has become a self-sufficient water village.
• Once a drought-prone village, it now produces nearly 23,000 quintals of basmati rice. The production of other crops has also increased manifold.

THE CONCLUSION: In the era of climate change; river networking is the need of time for development. Successful implementation of the Ken- Betwa link project largely looms upon the timely release of water from the surplus basin to the deficit basin. The problem of providing domestic water supplies in areas away from the rivers will largely remain unsolved. Some of the project’s major criticisms are its socioeconomic viability, environmental impacts, displacement and rehabilitation of affected people, the challenge of resource mobilization, geopolitical constraints, and domestic political dynamics. There is an urgent need to take Socio-environmental concerns related to the link Project so a very detailed hydrological, geological, meteorological, and environmental analysis of the project would be imperative for the benefit of India.